Sabermetrati: Pythagorean Baseball

Bronx New World: Most Likely Scenario is Yankees in 6

2009-11-02T21:44:00.000-08:00

The Phillies are hanging by a thread, and we're about to see if Charlie Manuel made the right decision by resting Cliff Lee fully and Girardi made the wrong one with short rest for Sabathia/Burnett.

Of the remaining scenarios, 6-game or full 7 game Series, the Yankees have a 53% to do the former, and only a 25% of the latter. If it does go to Game Seven, it will be the single-game Log 5 probability, with the Yankees having the advantage, of course (as you see below).

World Series	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Next Game only
Phillies	0.553	0.592	78%	47%
Yankees	0.621	0.571	22%	53%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small. See my post from last year about what it is and how it works.

Yankees Lose! Yankees Win! Yankees ? ? ? ? ? Yes It Could Go 7...

2009-10-31T08:23:00.000-07:00

Fret not, Yankees fans: Log 5 Probability is on your side! After a home split leaving the Series at 1-1, the Yankees advantage has only slightly moved down from the first day. A home loss basically dropped their win probability for the Series from 56% to 54%.

Additionally, if you look at the Yankees' winning percentage on the road vs. the Phillies' percentage at home--all of a sudden, home not so sweet home for the Phanatics: .571 vs. .553. I will admit, though, that the number as calculated does NOT take into account the fact that the Yanks winning percentage during the season was accomplished with the DH, not the pitcher, as will be the case in Philadelphia. But it still goes to show that the Yankees are by no means down away from home.

Of the remaining scenarios, 5-game, 6-game or full 7 game Series, the Yankees have the advantage in all of them by roughly 3%-5%, with the most likely outcome being a 7-game Series in which the Yankees have about a 3% chance better than the Phillies to win.

World Series	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Next Game only
Phillies	0.553	0.592	46%	48%
Yankees	0.621	0.571	54%	52%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

2009 World Series in a Statshell: New York is Probably Going to Win

2009-10-27T19:40:00.000-07:00

Hello fellow baseball travellers, and welcome to the World Series! My friends who favor the Cubs are probably not bothering with this series, but my fellow New Yorkers have brought out their Yankees paraphernalia in full force: World Series-mania has hit the Big Apple with a vengeance. Will A-Rod become the new Mr. October? Will Derek Jeter continue his mastery of November? Will Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett finally bring peace to the long-suffering Gothamites (well, they haven't won either in this century or in this millennium after all...)?

Well, the City of Brothelly Love will certainly try to keep that suffering going longer. What do the numbers say? Well, Yankee's fans, this is your year. I almost didn't even bother running the numbers, thinking it was extremely lop-sided. It actually isn't. While the Bronx Bombers have a 56% chance of winning the Series, that is certainly not the highest probability I've ever seen. I was surprised to find that the Phillies have an excellent Away record (check out the table below), and that the Yankees are a little vulnerable there. Even though they have a better than 50/50 chance of winning, it's only slightly better.

If the Phillies win the first game, it gives them an immediate 61% of taking the series. Of course if the Yanks win it'll be even more dire for the Sons of the Liberty Bell: New York would have a commanding 70/30 chance to win the Series.

Game on!

World Series	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Phillies	0.553	0.592	44%	5%
Yankees	0.621	0.571	56%	8%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

What the Stats Say, vs. What I Think Might Happen: 2009 Baseball Season Predictions Part II

2009-04-05T16:28:00.000-07:00

Last month I posted the table you see below. This is how pure stats, using Bill James' Win Shares (though with the Hardball Times version of Win Shares Above Bench--that is, the difference between the player and an average bench player) predicts the upcoming season. I will take this information, and argue where the stats might be pulling a Disraeli. I reproduce the table from the previous post again:

AL
EAST	2008 WP	2008 P WP	P W+new	P L	Win Shares Net
Tampa Bay	.600	.572	99	63	2
Boston	.588	.600	98	64	2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	92	70	3
Toronto	.531	.573	82	80	-4
Baltimore	.421	.452	69	93	1
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	90	72	2
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	0
Cleveland	.500	.527	83	79	2
Detroit	.459	.482	76	86	1
Kansas City	.463	.441	74	88	0
WEST
LA Angels	.619	.545	98	64	-2
Oakland	.472	.470	81	81	4
Texas	.488	.466	73	89	-6
Seattle	.369	.402	56	106	-3

NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	93	69	2
NY Mets	.550	.556	92	70	3
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	0
Atlanta	.444	.481	76	86	4
Washington	.371	.379	61	101	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	97	65	-1
Houston	.535	.481	85	77	-1
St. Louis	.525	.530	83	79	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	81	81	-9
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	0
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	0
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	1
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	0
Colorado	.463	.454	74	88	-1
San Francisco	.440	.413	74	88	3
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	1

Let's start at the top with the AL East. I've looked at the predictions by many of the mainstream sportswriters, like ESPN and Sports Illustrated, and they seem to really discount the Tampa Bay Rays chances. 90% of them seem to think the Yankees are going to somehow end up in first place, with the Red Sox winning the Wild Card. I'll go with the stats and say that the Yankees are basically a 3rd place team in this division. They just did not gain enough to really outdo what they lost from last year (Giambi, Mussina, Abreu, mostly). I do think, though, that the Red Sox will come in 1st place, followed by the Rays, who should get the Wild Card, though it will be close and the same finish as last year could certainly happen again.

In the Central, I fear the White Sox will not have enough to get them to 1st place again, and will fall behind both the Twins and the Indians, but it will be close among the three the whole season. If Mauer stays healthy, along with Morneau, and Liriano can make a comeback--it's the Twins in the playoffs. If Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona do what they've done in the past, it could be Cleveland. And if the White Sox again over-achieve under Ozzie Guillen, they could steal some October time again.

In the West, it's simple: all Angels--they have no real competition unless disaster strikes.

In the NL East, the stats show a dog-fight between the Mets and the Phillies. I was surprised that Frankie Rodriguez was only worth 7 win shares above bench, considering he set a Saves record. I think the one game statistical difference might be made up by the fact that the Mets will win more games they lead after the 8th inning than they did last year (they lost 11 of these) and that the Phillies will lose more of these (they lost NONE--Brad Lidge had a career season!). Figure Lidge to lose a couple games this year and the Mets to do better under Frankie K. It won't really matter because the runner-up in this division will still move to the playoffs.

Despite the gloom and doom in Cubdom, it will take some major disasters for the Cubs to not make the playoffs again, and of course their problem is how far they will go after they make it. I think they at least get past the first round this year. The Reds might be the most improved in this division, but I still think that St. Louis, under an always-overachieving LaRussa team will still come in 2nd followed by the Brewers.

If Manny decides to go back to being Manny (meaning the Boston Manny), the Dodgers could lose to a good Arizona team, but more than likely, Manny will take his bat into October again.

As It Stands: If the Season Started With the Rosters Today...

2009-03-08T20:53:00.000-07:00

Welcome back, loyal readers! The winter is almost over, and we're close to the beginning of the baseball season (I know because the clock just moved forward one hour and daylight lasts until 7pm).

Every year I look at how the Win Shares (as described by Bill James, and calculated for the season by The Hardball Times) have changed via trades and free agent signings. Since three Win Shares equal one win, a team that gains 6 Win Shares by signing free agent would therefore win two more games than they would had they not signed anyone. I go one step further: since a team would likely replace a departing player with at least an average player, I prefer to use Hardball Times' Win Shares Above Bench, meaning that the player in question is worth that many more wins over a replacement average player.

Let's look at an example: the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. In the offseason, they've done the following, with their accompanying Win Shares gained/lost:

Lost Pat Burrell (9 WSAB)
Signed Raul Ibanez (11 WSAB)
Signed Chan Ho Park (3 WSAB)
a bunch of releases and signings that net to roughly zero

The Phillies adjusted Pythagorean Record last year was 91 wins. Subtract Burrell's 9 WSAB, add in Ibanez (11) and Park (3) which equals 14-9=5, divide by 3 to get the additional wins, in this case 2. Therefore, based on last year's Phillies' team doing roughly the same all else being equal would win two more games because of the roster changes. I followed this same basic process for all the teams, and the result is the following table:

AL
EAST	2008 WP	2008 P WP	P W+new	P L	Win Shares Net
Tampa Bay	.600	.572	99	63	2
Boston	.588	.600	98	64	2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	92	70	3
Toronto	.531	.573	82	80	-4
Baltimore	.421	.452	69	93	1
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	90	72	2
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	0
Cleveland	.500	.527	83	79	2
Detroit	.459	.482	76	86	1
Kansas City	.463	.441	74	88	0
WEST
LA Angels	.619	.545	98	64	-2
Oakland	.472	.470	81	81	4
Texas	.488	.466	73	89	-6
Seattle	.369	.402	56	106	-3

NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	93	69	2
NY Mets	.550	.556	92	70	3
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	0
Atlanta	.444	.481	76	86	4
Washington	.371	.379	61	101	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	97	65	-1
Houston	.535	.481	85	77	-1
St. Louis	.525	.530	83	79	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	81	81	-9
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	0
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	0
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	1
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	0
Colorado	.463	.454	74	88	-1
San Francisco	.440	.413	74	88	3
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	1

The biggest winner in the AL is Oakland, although unfortunately those 4 games will likely only translate into a 2nd place finish. The biggest loser in that league will be the Rangers. The most interesting story will probably be the AL East, where it looks like Boston and Tampa Bay will again be neck and neck for the season, with the Yankees coming a close 3rd.

The Yankees are interesting: they added Teixeira (13), Sabathia (18), Burnett (8)--a whopping 39 WSAB (or roughly 13 wins above replacement players)! Unfortunately, though, they lost Mussina (13), Abreu (11), and Giambi (6), or 30/3 = 10 games, which you can see shows where they gain 3 games in the standings.

In the NL, the most improved team will be the Braves, but the biggest winner is the Cubs, on the strength of the Brewers being the biggest losers (9 games in the standings!). Losing Sheets (11), Sabathia (13), and on lesser level, Shouse (4) for a total of 28 WSAB lost.

Even with all the changes, the only race that looks like it would change from last year is that the Twins would beat the White Sox by two games.

Keep in mind, that this is using the stats from last season, and while the best predictor of the future is the past, that doesn't mean that it always ends up that way--look at the stock market from last year to this year for case in point.

If there is any more activity prior to the beginning of the season, I will duly note the changes.

Winning the First Game on the Road Gives Huge Boost to Win Probability for Phillies

2008-10-23T11:28:00.000-07:00

WS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	30%	0%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	70%	16%

Taking away the home-field advantage from the Rays puts the Phillies in position to do what they could not in 1993: win the World Series. Although they do have 70% chance of winning now, the Rays still have a 60% chance of winning Game 2, which could swing things back to at least toss-up status.

Phillies Are No Slouches--Rays Have a Tough Series Even With Home Advantage

2008-10-20T12:48:00.000-07:00

Back when the Cubs were the team to beat, I always thought the Phillies would present the toughest challenge. I should have known better that, once October rolls around, even a team made up of Florida Seniors could beat them. One thing I also knew, is that both Boston or Tampa Bay were better than any NL team. So if we look at the numbers alone, sans context, the World Series will be a toss-up, with the slight advantage going to the Phillies, based on their Road record particularly.

The big caveat in this, though, is that the Phils play in the National League which is not as strong a league as the AL, and particularly not as strong as the survivor of the AL East, which is a beast (and I will stop the rhyme there).

Whoever wins the first game will certainly get the edge, because then, in either case, that winner will hold a 70% chance of taking the Series.

WS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	5%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	51%	7%

Home for Three

2008-10-13T12:18:00.000-07:00

Rays are back in it, as are the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the second best winning percentage at home, Red Sox have the best. I bet LA will win at least one more home game. The Red Sox could very well sweep at home (hence the great chance of winning still, even though the series is 1-1).

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	41%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	59%	0%

NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	72%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	28%	0%

According to Hoyle...

2008-10-11T14:40:00.000-07:00

Odds for the Phillies making it to the Series have gone up sharply with their two victories, and winning the first game has made a world (series) of difference for the Red Sox, who now are most likely to win the series. The Dodgers home winning percentage probably means that they should be able to win at least one at home, but the Phillies are no slouches on the road.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	30%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	70%	16%

NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	82%	18%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	18%	0%

Who Will Be Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?

2008-10-06T21:23:00.000-07:00

Rays/Red Sox is a toss-up--couldn't be a closer matchup. I thought at the beginning of the year that the Red Sox were the best team in the majors and there's no reason to change my mind now. My initial (though un-posted) prediction of the World Series was BoSox over the Cubs. Insert lamentation here. Or just insert Phillies.

This is looking kind of like last year, where I had the Cubs beating Arizona, and Phillies beating the Rockies. Then I had Arizona beating the Rockies--I wasn't right until I finally had the Red Sox over the Rockies. But the numbers don't lie: the Phils are better than the commuter-train-dodgers (sorry, that's bad). If the Dodgers can demoralize the Phillies by taking two in the City of Brothelly Love, they can pull off an upset again.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	19%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	51%	13%

NLCS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	66%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	34%	10%

Die Another Day

2008-10-06T08:18:00.000-07:00

The Angels and White Sox live to fight another day and keep slim hopes alive: both of them have the exact same odds to overcome, a 1 in 5 chance of winning their ALDS series. And in case you so enjoyed my anatomy of a stat, here's another one. What are the chances of the White Sox facing the Angels in the ALCS?

1/5 x 1/5 (each is the chance that they will make it to the next round) = 1/25 or 1 in 25 chances would this happen. I've seen worse odds...

Congratulations to the LA Party Poopers, I mean Dodgers, and the Phillies.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	20%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	80%	0%

Rays	0.628	0.515	80%	0%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	20%	0%

NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	0%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	100%	100%

Phillies	0.598	0.561	100%	0%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	0%	0%

Early Bleakness of Winter Descending on Chicago and Milwaukee...

2008-10-04T09:07:00.000-07:00

...Yes, and dramatically so. Of all the teams down 2-0, the Cubs have the slightly better chance of being able to pull through than the others, with their Southside rivals being next in line (especially because of the two home games, potentially, that they could play). In today's games, specifically, the Cubs have a 45% chance of winning and the Brewers have a 42% chance of winning. If they pull it off, they could change some odds for the better. But yes, it looks bleak now.

As for the weather forecast in Southern California, particularly Anaheim way, there's a 92% chance of anomie and despair, though there is also a 99% chance of clear skies.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	8%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	92%	60%

Rays	0.628	0.515	87%	37%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	13%	0%

NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	14%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	86%	55%

Phillies	0.598	0.561	86%	42%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	14%	0%

Anatomy of a Baseball Stat: Explaining Win Probability

2008-10-03T19:31:00.000-07:00

Since many of you might not read Bill James' Baseball Manifestos, I thought I would show you how arrive at the numbers that I've been showing as the probability of victory for any given playoff team. We will draw upon two formulas from Bill James, one from his 1981 Baseball Abstract and the other from his 1984 Baseball Abstract.

First, let's look at his Pythagorean Win Expectancy "theorem". I use quotes because even though he called it that, he never thought that it quite stood the test of an actual mathematical theorem. Baseball, at it's most basic, yet most accurate, is a game whose outcome is determined by how many runs the teams score. This has two four points: runs scored by both teams and runs given up by both teams. The obvious: the team with more runs after 9 innings wins. So, he combined the idea of the pythagorean theorem that you all probably still remember (and aren't you glad that's so--I'm sure you've used it to determine the long side of a right triangle given the two short sides recently!): a² + b² = c²

Now this has led to countless important discoveries, not the least of which couldn't have happened without it, Algebra and Trigonometry. So James' basic idea was that there was some correlation between runs scored, and runs given up, and somehow coming up with wins. I don't recall the details now (I first came across this in the late '80s). But the formula that he came up with (which I've detailed elsewhere before) is:

P WP = R² / R² + RA²

P WP = Predicted Winning Percentage

R = Runs Scored (batting)

RA = Runs Given Up (pitching)

So as an example, let's compute this for the Cubs this season. Cubs scored 854 and gave up 668 runs.

P WP = 854² / 854² + 668² = .620

This is the number that was used to compute the predictive standings. But for the Playoffs, I get more granular, since the games encompass playing 3 at home and 2 on the road. For that, I consult ESPN, but this time, get their extended team stats and sort by home and away runs/runs-against.

So the Cubs then end up at:

Home: P WP = 854² / 454² + 339² = .649

Away: P WP = 854² / 401² + 332² = .563

So this is where we want to see what their chances of winning a home game and winning an away game are against their opponent, the LA Dodgers. This is when we bring in James' second discovery which he called Log5 probability (I won't go into the details of the name, that's totally straining your staying power!). Log5 allows you to take the winning percentage of any team, multiply it by their opponent, and come up with a probability of victory (or defeat, as the case might be). Now, because actual winning percentage can sometimes be a function of luck or other external factors, I use the pythagorean or predicted winning percentage.

To do this, I also need the same information for the opposing team, in this case the Dodgers. I'll use the same method and come up with their home and away winning percentages, which are .637 and .454, respectively. So the formula will then look like this:

One Game Win Probability (Cubs home advantage)

= CHPWP - (CHPWP x LAAPWP) / CHPWP + LAAPWP - (2 x LAAPWP x CHPWP) where

CHPWP = Cubs Home Predicted Winning Percentage

LAAPWP = Dodgers Away Predicted Winning Percentage

With the numbers just given, the formula and result look like this:

Cubs Win Probability = .649 x .454 / .649 + .454 - (2 x .454 x .649) = .690 or 69%

LA Dodgers Win Probability = 1 - Cubs Win Probability = .310 or 31%

The next step is the one I outlined briefly early this week and referenced in the Diamond Mind article of Monday's post, where you assemble all the potential probabilities of the different scenarios in a 5-game series: sweep 3, lose first and win next 3, lose first 2 win next 3, etc. Each one of these is associated with a probability. So, as an example, how do we calculate the probability of a 3-game sweep for these two teams? We simply use the multiplicative property of probabilities. The Cubs have a probability of winning each of the first two home games of .690. The already calculated chance following the above Log5 method for the Away games are .454. The formula and result:

Probability of 3-game sweep for Cubs = .690 x .690 x .454 = 22%

For the Dodgers, the chance of a sweep is only 5%. But since the Cubs lost the two games at home, the chance of a sweep for the Dodgers went up:

Probability of Dodgers Sweep with two victories = 1.00 x 1.00 x .546 = 55%

(1.00 represents a victory or probability of 100% of winning that game which we know they won)

Hopefully, this has been properly explained. Now to go back to the Red Sox vs. Angels game!

Mirage in Chicago

2008-10-02T21:09:00.000-07:00

I'm sorry for any Red Sox, or Cleveland, Phillies, or San Francisco fan out there, but there is no worse fan that one can be than of the Cursed Cubs. They lose when they're predicted to lose, and they lose when they're predicted to win. In short, all they really do is lose. It's not a curse--that is ridiculous. But the negativity surrounding this team is palpable: fans don't cheer when they're behind, the players take on all the expectations of finally being "the one" that they inevitably press and try too hard, and inevitably as well, lose. Game after game. Home field advantage or not, they lose. As the game goes on, rather than trying to calm down and get good at-bats, they swing at pitches in the dirt like single-A minor leaguers. Pitchers overpitch and end up walking everyone they face. If you're a Cubs fan, that is the most pathetic thing to be. In the Cubs' sabermetric world, the usual saying is the same, except let me put it in mathematical notation: Wait 'til Next Year = Cubs + October + (Win Expectancy > 0) = ∞ / 0

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	24%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	76%	30%

Rays	0.628	0.515	74%	25%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	26%	0%

NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	14%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	86%	17%

Phillies	0.598	0.561	86%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	14%	0%

Rays and Red Sox Increase Their Odds, Things Look Bad For Angels and White Sox

2008-10-02T16:10:00.000-07:00

The Angels and the White Sox have basically a 1 in 4 chance of making it to the ALCS. Looks like I might not be able to spin out my long-awaited probability of the Cubs meeting the White Sox in the World Series.

The Phillies are playing right now and beating Sabathia badly. The question on the Hot Stove circuit will certainly be "Is it too many starts on 3-days rest down the stretch or is he just not a 'clutch' or capable playoff pitcher?" Last year in the playoffs, his ERA was 9.00...

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	24%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	76%	30%

Rays	0.628	0.515	74%	25%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	26%	0%

NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	42%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	58%	17%

Phillies	0.598	0.561	69%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	31%	0%

2 Games in the Can, Two Teams with a Better Chance to Win...

2008-10-01T19:08:00.000-07:00

Even though the Cubs lost their first game, they still have a 42% chance to win the series, and that's expecting more losses. If the Cubs win the next one, it becomes a slightly better than 50/50 proposition.

The Phillies have taken a commanding position over the Brewers, but we'll certainly see what happens after Sabathia pitches.

Stay tuned for Red Sox-Angels...

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	43%	10%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	57%	15%

Rays	0.628	0.515	61%	17%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	39%	6%

NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	42%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	58%	17%

Phillies	0.598	0.561	69%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	31%	0%

I Guess That Answer's Last Night's Question; Now Updated Playoff Odds

2008-09-30T20:07:00.000-07:00

No real changes except that we now have the actual contestants and final runs/runs against. Basically, I still think the Red Sox will beat the Angels (57% chance to do so); Rays will beat the White Sox (61%--Sorry, Chicago, no subway series); Cubs will beat the Dodgers (68%); and even though the Phillies have a 53% chance to beat the Brewers, that is really a toss-up.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	43%	10%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	57%	15%

Rays	0.628	0.515	61%	17%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	39%	6%

NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	68%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	32%	5%

Phillies	0.598	0.561	53%	14%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	47%	10%

And if each of the teams predicted to lose the series wins the first game, it changes the odds to plus 60% for all of those teams, except one, the Cubs. They would no longer be favored, but the odds would be just under 50/50 for them to pull it out anyway.

White Sox Vs. Twins in One-Game Playoff Tomorrow--Who Wins?

2008-09-29T17:37:00.000-07:00

Based on the fact that White Sox are at home tomorrow, where they sport a lofty 0.643 pythagorean winning percentage, and that the Twins will bring their less-than-stellar 0.450 pythagorean road winning percentage, the Sox have a 69% chance of facing the Rays on Thursday, using the log5 win probability.

White Sox Have Good Chance to Tie for the NL Central Title Tomorrow

2008-09-28T21:21:00.000-07:00

The White Sox have a 67% chance of beating the Tigers tomorrow and taking this into a Tuesday one-game playoff with the Twins. Very cool.

Playoff Prediction or Fun With Pythagorean, Log5 and Probabilities: Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox Will Advance

2008-09-28T17:54:00.000-07:00

Alright folks (all 60 of you now!), you'll hear it here first: the Red Sox will upset the Angels. The Red Sox have an almost 60% chance of taking the series, mostly on the strength of better record on the road, and an unbelievable record at home.

The Rays will almost certainly beat whoever they play, be it the depleted Twins or depleted White Sox.

The Cubs, on the strength of an excellent road record, also have a great chance to proceed to the NLCS, 67% (the most of any of the post-season aspirants). Their home record vs. the road record of the Dodgers is very big, and their excellent road record can almost nullify the great home advantage of the Dodgers. On the other hand, should the Dodgers steal one at Wrigley, that would probably have a significant effect on the outcome.

Phillies should beat the Brewers (57% chance), and that might be more true considering how much Milwaukee's staff was battered and overworked in the last week (except when CC Sabathia pitched).

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Odds to Win Series	Odds to Sweep
Angels	0.525	0.554	41%	9%
Red Sox	0.658	0.536	59%	16%

Rays	0.628	0.514	x%	x%
Twins/WS	0.xxx	0.xxx	x%	x%

NLDS
Cubs	0.642	0.596	67%	21%
Dodgers	0.637	0.456	33%	6%

Phillies	0.588	0.561	58%	16%
Brewers	0.558	0.522	42%	9%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small.

Today's Win Probabilities for the Mets, Brewers, White Sox and Twins

2008-09-28T11:23:00.000-07:00

It all comes down to one day, one game, to determine two divisional races.

The Mets have a 54% chance of winning their game; the Brewers only a 42% of winning theirs (based on log5, as explained yesterday). For the Brewers to win the Wild Card today, we multiply their odds of winning to the odds of the Mets losing, then vice versa for the Mets to win it:

Brewers, 42% x (1-54%) = 20%

Mets, 54% x (1-42%) = 31%

Tie Today, either by both winning or both losing, (42% x 54%) + ((1 - 42%) x (1 - 54%)) = 49%

As of now, the Mets and Marlins are tied 0-0 in the 3rd, while the Cubs have taken 1-0 lead in the first.

As for the Twins and White Sox, their situation is a little different. Two things have to happen for the White Sox to win the division--they have to win and the Twins lose, then play a one-game playoff. Whereas the Twins just need to hold serve:

Twins, 74% chance to win division (based on log5 win probability to beat the Royals)

White Sox, 70% x (1 - 74%) = 18% (Sox win AND Twins lose) just to tie for the NL Central

As of now, Sox lead 3-1 over Cleveland in the 3rd, and Twins/Royals 0-0.

Who do the odds favor to reach the post-season, then? Well, Twins and Mets have the better chances to outlast their opponents, though it will be much harder for the Mets.

And just a side note to Mets' fans--this team has lost Billy Wagner, John Maine and Ryan Church for extended portions of the season, long enough to have probably cost them the division. That they are even in this situation is a testament to the team (players and manager) in overcoming these obstacles. With those three playing the full season, they are about equal to the Cubs in performance.

UPDATE and OOOPS!: With the White Sox win today, they force their remaining game to be played--I hadn't taken that into account. So the Twins are done, and now have to wait until tomorrow to see if the tie happens or they win.

1: I Think It'll Be A Playoff Game For the Mets/Brewers; Twins Will Upset the White Sox

2008-09-27T22:22:00.000-07:00

I had predicted a Subway Series back in June. Did the Carlos Quentin injury do in the Sox? How about the Contreras injury? In either case, it doesn't look good for the Sox, who have to win their last game and hope that the Royals sweep the Twins.

It's definitely looking like the Brewers and Mets will end up in a one-game playoff. Santana was rock-solid today, but it's the unpredictable Oliver Perez going tomorrow for the Mets, and the very predictable and wins except against the Cubs, CC Sabathia.

I love this game!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
x-Tampa Bay	.596	.571	97	65	4
y-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.572	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.425	.453	69	93	-4
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.540	.550	88	74	-2
Chicago Sox	.538	.547	87	75	-1
Cleveland	.503	.531	82	80	-4
Detroit	.463	.482	75	87	-3
Kansas City	.466	.443	75	87	4
WEST
*-LA Angels	.615	.542	100	62	12
Texas	.491	.468	79	83	4
Oakland	.469	.468	76	86	0
Seattle	.373	.405	60	102	-5

NL
EAST
x-Philadelphia	.565	.577	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.553	.557	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.501	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.485	72	90	-6
Washington	.369	.379	60	102	-2
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.606	.620	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.541	90	72	2
Houston	.531	.477	86	76	9
St. Louis	.528	.532	86	76	-1
Cincinnati	.460	.440	74	88	3
Pittsburgh	.410	.405	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.540	85	77	-3
Arizona	.503	.509	82	80	-1
Colorado	.460	.453	74	88	1
San Francisco	.441	.414	71	91	4
San Diego	.391	.413	63	99	-4

Mets Win, Chances to Tie/Win Go Up

2008-09-27T13:16:00.000-07:00

The chances of a one-game playoff between the Mets and the Brewers just went up to 82% with the Mets' victory. Brewer's chance to win outright drops to 56%.

Fun With Probabilities: Brewers/Twins have best shot at postseason

2008-09-27T08:46:00.000-07:00

I'm sure every one of my 34 regular readers (according to Google Analytics!) went immediately to their trusty Texas Instruments TI-35 calculators and used my probabilities from yesterdays' posts to calculate overall odds of making the post season for their favorite teams.

You mean you didn't?

OK, then, let's take a look from the spreadsheet. The beauty of probabilities, statistically speaking is that they can be added, subtracted and multiplied to come up with odds of combinations and odds of mutual exclusivity, among the many other possibilities. Here, we'll really look at the combinatorial property.

Before I delve into this, I want to point out that the best description of what I'm doing comes from DiamondMind Baseball. I first posted my playoff version of Bill James Log5 theorem in 2005. What I will be doing in the playoffs is exactly what they describe. You can also find my original description on BigShouldersSports, where I used to occasionally contribute. In essence, I take the home team's winning percentage at home vs. the away teams road winning percentage, all using the pythagorean expectations formula as used during the season, to compute a probability of victory in each game of the series. I then use the combinatorial mathematics to come up with the odds of sweeping, winning two games, or winning just one for each team. As you will see in the playoffs, this also will take into account all five or seven games.

For now, though, we've already had one game, so the odds have changed a little. Looking at the numbers for the Brewers, they have a 49% chance of beating the Cubs twice (since they won last night). The Mets have only a 29% chance of winning two games. The Brewers also have a 33% of winning one game, Mets have a 50% of doing so, facing easier competition. If both teams win one game or both teams win two games, then they end up tied, so we add up both of those probabilities for each team and multiply to get the odds of this happening, which is 64%.

But unfortunately, for the Mets, because they lost yesterday, they do not have the ability to sweep their series and will therefore have to hope that the Brewers will lose at least one game. Otherwise, the chances of the Brewers winning the Wild Card are 59% (odds of sweeping plus odds of winning two games plus odds of winning one game while the Mets lose two plus Mets losing one plus Mets being swept). Those same odds in reverse, i.e. for the Mets to win the WC, are 41%.

If you're wondering why some of those numbers don't total one hundred, it's because these possibilities are mutually exclusive, meaning they exist on their own (this is something I'm sure my regular visitors already know, but I include it in case I get some new visitors that might not). That is not true, though, for the Mets probability (P) of winning, that is exactly 41% because it is calculated 100% (Mets OR Brewers win P) minus 59% (Brewers win P).

Calculating the same for the White Sox and Twins, we get, respectively, 43% and 57%. Best way to check a probability is to do a gut-level check: Twins are playing the Royals, who are the worst team in the league, whereas the Sox are playing the Indians, which are in third place in the division. So the Sox have a tougher schedule.

2: Dead Heat in the AL Central; Brewers Back In the Driver's Seat

2008-09-26T22:14:00.000-07:00

Nothing I can add beyond the title--will be interesting.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.572	97	65	5
z-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.531	.573	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.421	.452	68	94	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	88	74	-1
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.527	81	81	-4
Detroit	.459	.482	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.463	.441	75	87	3
WEST
*-LA Angels	.619	.545	100	62	12
Texas	.488	.466	79	83	3
Oakland	.472	.470	76	86	0
Seattle	.369	.402	60	102	-5

NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.550	.556	89	73	-1
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	3
Atlanta	.444	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.371	.379	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	90	72	2
Houston	.535	.481	86	76	9
St. Louis	.525	.530	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	3
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	-3
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.463	.454	75	87	1
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	-4

Updated, and Now, AL, too

2008-09-26T21:57:00.000-07:00

Updated probabilities, plus I've finally included the White Sox and Twins. So how does it look for our finalists, some of whom will go home with consolation prizes (a higher draft pick next summer?).

Important places to look below: the Brewers have an 18% chance to sweep the Cubs, but even if they win only two, their chances of winning two now is almost 50/50. That is in stark contrast to the Mets who have only a 50/50 chance of winning ONE game. The Phillies have practically clinched, so they're not even in the equation anymore. If the Brewers win one more game, that will probably knock the Mets off (sorry, Mets fans).

I think I have to say sorry to White Sox fans also: they have to win the next two games to guarantee a tie, whereas the Twins, winning two games, will win the division. In the immortal words of The Jam, "Here Comes The Weekend"!

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	0.0%	33.1%	48.9%
Brewers	18.1%	48.9%	33.1%

Phillies	45.4%	43.9%	10.6%
Nationals	0.0%	10.6%	43.9%

Mets	0.0%	28.6%	49.8%
Marlins	21.6%	49.8%	28.6%

White Sox	0.0%	48.2%	42.4%
Indians	9.3%	42.4%	48.2%

Twins	0.0%	55.2%	38.2%
KC	6.6%	38.2%	55.2%

Check Out My Profile On My Wife's Blogroll

2008-09-26T20:25:00.000-07:00

Marysbutler.com profiles me and specifically Sabermetrati--Thanks!

Final Weekend: National League Version

2008-09-26T18:26:00.000-07:00

The table below is the Log5 probability (I will explain this in a following post) of the possible results in this weekends NL games with Playoff implications. The three columns are probability of a sweep for each team, for getting two wins, and getting one win.

The Brewers and Mets need to win 2 games and the Mets have the best chance of doing that. The numbers absolutely favor the Phillies winning at least one game and very likely two, and the Mets are second most likely to win. Of course, will the Cubs bring their A-Team this weekend? Given what I saw last night in Shea Stadium, they probably won't. Of course, the B-Team sure didn't disappoint too badly.

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	19.3%	42.3%	30.9%
Brewers	7.5%	30.9%	42.3%

Phillies	30.6%	44.4%	21.5%
Nationals	3.5%	21.5%	44.4%

Mets	15.2%	39.8%	34.8%
Marlins	10.1%	34.8%	39.8%

Ed note: My original post incorrectly showed the Cubs as the home team, and they are in fact the visiting team in Milwaukee. The numbers changed slightly.

3: Twins' Dome Sweeps the Sox Out of First, Mets/Brewers Tied--2 games for Any One of Them Will Put Them in the Playoffs

2008-09-25T21:54:00.000-07:00

The Mets great game tonight keeps them in contention with the Brewers after their extra inning affair. Boy--the Pirates are the tonic for what ails you in the NL. And the Twins now have the upper hand over the White Sox. This is going to be a great weekend for baseball!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.604	.574	98	64	5
z-Boston	.591	.609	96	66	-3
NY Yankees	.547	.533	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.571	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.547	.557	89	73	-2
Chicago Sox	.544	.554	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.497	.526	81	81	-5
Detroit	.456	.480	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.620	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.367	.400	60	102	-5

NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.553	.559	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.608	.622	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.542	90	72	2
Houston	.532	.480	86	76	8
St. Louis	.522	.529	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.465	.442	75	87	4
Pittsburgh	.409	.403	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.525	.542	85	77	-3
Arizona	.497	.506	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.455	75	87	2
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.386	.412	63	99	-4

Tied 6-6 in the 9th with the rain coming down

2008-09-25T19:00:00.000-07:00

Last cubs game at shea

2008-09-25T16:11:00.000-07:00

4: White Sox Need to Win Two More Games; One-Game Playoff Between Mets & Brewers?

2008-09-24T20:41:00.000-07:00

And it would help if they win one of those tomorrow against the Twins or there will be no chance for a Subway Series this year, just in time for the 102nd anniversary of the first one (Cubs vs. Sox in 1906).

And interestingly, the Phillies should still win the NL East, and it looks like a tie now between the Brewers and hapless Mets (subject of a special post from the game tomorrow at Shea Stadium). The Cubs are practically in the weird position to pick their opponent for the NLCS.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.608	.576	98	64	5
z-Boston	.589	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.551	.537	89	73	2
Toronto	.525	.567	85	77	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.548	.555	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.544	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.529	81	81	-5
Detroit	.452	.479	73	89	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5

NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.611	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.551	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.529	.479	85	77	8
St. Louis	.519	.523	84	78	-1
Cincinnati	.468	.443	76	86	4
Pittsburgh	.411	.405	67	95	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.513	81	81	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

5: All the Phillies Met at a Brewer-y; White Sox Have Twins?

2008-09-24T14:18:00.000-07:00

There's really only one race in the NL, but with two parts: Phillies over Mets, Mets over Brewers. I think the Brewers are going to come up short based on who they have to play over the weekend, but it should still be interesting.

In the AL, it's just one race, Sox vs. Twins. The Sox should be able to eke it out, but the Twins are not going down easy. This closeness is probably the one game of difference Carlos Quentin's injury has wrought.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.605	.573	98	64	5
z-Boston	.586	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.548	.534	89	73	2
Toronto	.529	.570	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.427	.456	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.551	.556	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.541	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.503	.530	82	80	-4
Detroit	.455	.483	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.456	.431	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5

NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.580	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.554	.562	90	72	-1
Florida	.516	.495	83	79	3
Atlanta	.443	.477	72	90	-6
Washington	.376	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.609	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.548	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.475	85	77	8
St. Louis	.516	.522	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.414	.406	67	95	1
Cincinnati	.471	.446	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.503	.514	82	80	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

6: The Mets? Ouch--But They'll, uh, Make It!

2008-09-23T16:41:00.000-07:00

The White Sox, the Dodgers, and the Mets only need to win two more games to effectively clinch the playoffs. I still have egg on my face from making that call for the Mets last year, but I'm sure they'll be able to do it given their stats.

The Red Sox and Phillies will both effectively clinch with one more win, but barring a monstrous collapse, both will be in the playoffs. Actually, in a preview of those, Boston is by far the scariest team to face, and the Angels do have something to worry about. In this table (without my log5 win probability calculated completely, yet), note that the Sox are underperforming by 4 games, while the Angels are OVERperforming by 11. That's an amazing number and one that I have not seen in a first place team at the end of the season in the 5 years I've been doing this. Is it the Angels' great relief, namely Frankie K? Great managing? I don't know, but if I was a betting man, I would put money on Boston to take them out in the first round.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.571	97	65	5
Boston	.583	.606	95	67	-4
NY Yankees	.545	.533	88	74	2
Toronto	.532	.572	86	76	-6
Baltimore	.432	.459	70	92	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.538	.552	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.506	.531	82	80	-4
Kansas City	.452	.428	73	89	4
Detroit	.458	.486	74	88	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.622	.554	100	62	11
Oakland	.481	.480	78	84	0
Texas	.478	.453	77	85	4
Seattle	.365	.397	59	103	-5

NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.567	.581	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.439	.476	71	91	-6
Washington	.372	.378	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.613	.626	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.545	.537	88	74	1
Houston	.529	.476	85	77	9
St. Louis	.513	.520	83	79	-1
Pittsburgh	.417	.407	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.468	.445	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.530	84	78	-2
Arizona	.506	.517	82	80	-2
Colorado	.455	.443	74	88	2
San Francisco	.449	.422	73	89	4
San Diego	.391	.422	64	98	-5

7: A Week From Today, There Will Be Two Less "Old" Stadiums...

2008-09-21T21:00:00.000-07:00

Yeah, it was a tear-jerker earlier this evening watching the last game in a storied ballpark. I still don't know why it needs to be replaced, but hey, I'm not the fire inspector. I'm looking forward to the Cubs at the Mets on Thursday, when I have tickets to see one of the last games at Shea.

I've already put together the log5 predictions for the playoffs based on current standings, and it's going to be an interesting post-season. Let's put it this way: the top two teams in each league do NOT have an easy path to the World Series. More on that later in the week.

For now, it looks like the Phillies can beat the annually free-falling Mets, but they'll both make the playoffs. Either way, one or the other will be playing the Dodgers, and it won't be as easy a victory as it seems. Same with the Cubs and the eventual Wild Card.

The Angels will not have an easy time with Boston, nor will the Rays have an easy time with the White Sox.

Did I just say the Cubs and the White Sox will be in the playoffs in the same year? Can you say Subway Series? Enjoy the last week!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.597	.570	97	65	5
Boston	.587	.607	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.545	.533	88	74	2
Toronto	.532	.572	86	76	-6
Baltimore	.435	.460	71	91	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.538	.552	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.503	.530	82	80	-4
Kansas City	.449	.425	73	89	4
Detroit	.461	.488	75	87	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.619	.554	100	62	11
Texas	.481	.453	78	84	5
Oakland	.477	.479	77	85	0
Seattle	.368	.397	60	102	-5

NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.564	.578	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.555	.563	90	72	-1
Florida	.523	.500	85	78	4
Atlanta	.442	.479	72	90	-6
Washington	.372	.378	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
x-Chicago Cubs	.610	.624	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.545	.537	88	74	1
Houston	.529	.476	85	77	9
St. Louis	.516	.522	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.417	.407	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.465	.443	75	87	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.530	84	78	-2
Arizona	.503	.515	82	80	-2
Colorado	.455	.443	74	88	2
San Francisco	.449	.422	73	89	4
San Diego	.391	.422	64	98	-5

8: Can the White Sox Hold On? Will The Phillies Do To The Brewers This Year What They Did To The Mets Last Year?

2008-09-20T16:33:00.000-07:00

With the Twins not able to shake the Rays, they are ceding the AL Central to the White Sox. The Dodgers look to be holding off the Diamondbacks. And with the Brewers' pitiful slide the last two weeks, Both the Mets and the Phillies will be making the Playoffs.

This last actually might not be good for the Cubs, because they have to play a much better team the NL Worst's Dodgers to advance to the next round, either the Mets or Phillies. On the other hand, none of the teams would have fared very well with the Cubs' home advantage.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.599	.569	97	65	5
Boston	.584	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.542	.530	88	74	2
Toronto	.535	.574	87	75	-6
Baltimore	.438	.462	71	91	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.556	.561	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.539	.554	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.497	.525	81	81	-5
Kansas City	.448	.424	72	90	4
Detroit	.467	.493	76	86	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.614	.549	99	63	11
Texas	.487	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.474	.478	77	85	-1
Seattle	.370	.398	60	102	-5

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.562	.565	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.558	.576	91	71	-3
Florida	.529	.503	86	76	4
Atlanta	.435	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.377	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
x-Chicago Cubs	.608	.622	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.542	.532	88	74	2
Houston	.529	.474	85	77	9
St. Louis	.519	.525	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.416	.407	67	95	1
Cincinnati	.468	.448	76	86	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.529	84	78	-2
Arizona	.497	.507	81	81	-2
Colorado	.461	.450	75	87	2
San Francisco	.448	.423	72	90	4
San Diego	.383	.415	62	100	-5

9: Too Close To Call, or Too Soon To Call?

2008-09-19T22:52:00.000-07:00

Well, it's pretty obvious that 3 races are too soon to call, but we know what will happen (Rays, Red Sox, White Sox will secure playoff spots, in addition to the official winner of the AL West). The Dodgers still have a possibility of blowing it, so it's too close to call, and even though the division title is too close to call, both the Mets and the Phillies will make the playoffs, with the Brewers' freefall.

My original prediction, back in June, was a Cubs vs. White Sox World Series. As of now, it could still happen. In effect, to effectively clinch the division, the Sox will have to win 3 more games with the Twins predicted to win 87 (they already have 85)

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.599	.569	97	65	5
Boston	.588	.608	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.539	.530	87	75	1
Toronto	.532	.573	87	75	-7
Baltimore	.441	.463	72	90	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.556	.561	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.539	.554	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.497	.525	81	81	-5
Detroit	.467	.493	76	86	-4
Kansas City	.448	.424	72	90	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.614	.549	99	63	11
Texas	.487	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.471	.477	76	86	-1
Seattle	.373	.398	61	101	-4

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.562	.565	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.558	.576	91	71	-3
Florida	.529	.503	86	76	4
Atlanta	.435	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.377	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.605	.622	98	64	-3
Milwaukee	.545	.533	88	74	2
Houston	.529	.474	85	77	9
St. Louis	.523	.526	85	77	0
Cincinnati	.464	.447	75	87	3
Pittsburgh	.416	.407	67	95	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.529	84	78	-2
Arizona	.497	.507	81	81	-2
Colorado	.461	.450	75	87	2
San Francisco	.448	.423	72	90	4
San Diego	.383	.415	62	100	-5

10: Picture is getting clearer...

2008-09-18T21:32:00.000-07:00

OK, what do you want me to say? Will Boston beat Tampa Bay? Well it's very likely considering the Rays are way overperforming. But they've been doing so all year, so what else is new--maybe this is their level.

It really doesn't matter, though, because the Red Sox will still be in the playoffs. The Sox of a paler persuasion should be able to hold off the Gemini, but it is still a tossup, really. Ozzie's crew isn't overperforming like the past, but the Twins are underperforming considerably, so some changes can still occur.

For my buds in NYC, I hope the Mets make it, but it does appear to be going down to the wire. And Torre's trolley Dodgers (where there are none) will most likely make the playoffs.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.596	.562	96	66	6
Boston	.586	.608	95	67	-4
Toronto	.536	.574	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.536	.529	87	75	1
Baltimore	.444	.463	72	90	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.553	.558	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.542	.561	88	74	-3
Cleveland	.493	.525	80	82	-5
Detroit	.470	.494	76	86	-4
Kansas City	.451	.427	73	89	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.612	.548	98	64	10
Texas	.490	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.467	.475	76	86	-1
Seattle	.375	.399	61	101	-4

NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.562	.582	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Florida	.526	.499	85	77	4
Atlanta	.438	.479	71	91	-7
Washington	.379	.385	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.609	.628	99	63	-3
Milwaukee	.549	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.471	85	77	9
St. Louis	.520	.522	84	78	0
Cincinnati	.461	.440	74	88	3
Pittsburgh	.418	.409	68	94	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.523	.534	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.458	.449	74	88	1
San Francisco	.444	.418	72	90	4
San Diego	.379	.410	62	100	-5

11: Cubs, Red Sox, Rays as good as clinched, White Sox and Dodgers should do so also; Mets, Phillies, and Brewers Still a Tossup

2008-09-16T21:52:00.000-07:00

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.597	.560	96	66	6
Boston	.589	.614	96	66	-4
Toronto	.530	.573	86	76	-7
NY Yankees	.530	.522	86	76	1
Baltimore	.450	.464	73	89	-2
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.560	.566	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.543	.562	88	74	-3
Cleveland	.490	.524	80	82	-5
Detroit	.467	.485	76	86	-3
Kansas City	.444	.415	72	90	5
WEST
x-LA Angels	.613	.548	99	63	11
Texas	.493	.464	80	82	5
Oakland	.467	.476	76	86	-1
Seattle	.380	.408	62	100	-5

NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.556	.578	90	72	-4
NY Mets	.553	.559	90	72	-1
Florida	.520	.485	84	78	6
Atlanta	.444	.483	72	90	-6
Washington	.384	.388	62	100	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.611	.632	99	63	-3
Milwaukee	.550	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.533	.485	86	76	8
St. Louis	.520	.523	84	78	-1
Cincinnati	.460	.438	74	88	4
Pittsburgh	.417	.404	67	95	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.523	.540	85	77	-3
Arizona	.493	.507	80	82	-2
Colorado	.454	.448	73	89	1
San Francisco	.450	.418	73	89	5
San Diego	.382	.411	62	100	-5

12: Cubs Have Basically Clinched, Other Races Still Too Close To Call

2008-09-15T21:22:00.000-07:00

Although also the Rays and Red Sox have clinched playoff spots, though not the divisional standings. Why do I say those things? Basically, the Cubs have won 90 games, and the prediction for Milwaukee is 89, so it's basically over in the division. I would say that Milwaukee can hold off the Phillies, but that's what the Mets said last year...

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.595	.560	96	66	6
Boston	.593	.615	96	66	-3
Toronto	.533	.575	87	75	-7
NY Yankees	.533	.525	86	76	1
Baltimore	.446	.463	72	90	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.557	.564	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.547	.565	89	73	-3
Cleveland	.487	.522	79	83	-6
Detroit	.470	.486	76	86	-3
Kansas City	.440	.413	71	91	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.617	.554	99	63	10
Texas	.490	.463	79	83	4
Oakland	.463	.470	75	87	-1
Seattle	.383	.410	62	100	-4

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.557	.560	90	72	-1
Philadelphia	.553	.578	90	72	-4
Florida	.517	.482	83	79	6
Atlanta	.447	.484	73	89	-6
Washington	.380	.388	62	100	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.608	.632	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.553	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.537	.487	86	76	8
St. Louis	.523	.527	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.456	.434	74	88	4
Pittsburgh	.420	.406	68	94	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.520	.537	84	78	-3
Arizona	.490	.505	80	82	-2
San Francisco	.453	.420	73	89	5
Colorado	.450	.443	73	89	1
San Diego	.384	.415	63	99	-5

13: New Stat Retraction and Back to the Standings

2008-09-14T21:07:00.000-07:00

I apologize for bringing out my new stat before prime-time--I need to work on it some more.

Back to the Predictive Standings, then. Anything interesting left in this season? First, what isn't interesting: Rays, Red Sox, and Angels are in the playoffs--it's just a matter of who plays who in the playoffs; Cubs are still the best in the NL and judging by tonight's no-no by the Zambino, looks like they'll be tough in the playoffs.

What is interesting:

White Sox or Twins? Both of these teams are literally going to fight this to the end, and possibly a one-game playoff.
Mets should hold off the Phillies. The only question is whether the Phillies go on a winning streak to match their record with their performance, much like last year at this time.
Also, Brewers vs. Phillies. The Brewers look like they're fading fast, but if they play to their overperforming level, they should still be able to win the Wild Card. If OPI says anything, it is that the Phillies are underperforming by 4 games and the Brewers are overperforming by 2 games, so this might get more interesting rather than less.
And in the NL West, even though the stats show LA to win, this is probably far from over with how bad the D'Backs and Dodgers have played all year. Can Torre continue the playoff run he started in New York? It certainly doesn't look like the Yankees will continue that run this year...

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.603	.571	97	65	5
Boston	.588	.610	96	66	-4
Toronto	.537	.576	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.527	.521	85	77	1
Baltimore	.442	.460	72	90	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.562	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.554	.569	90	72	-3
Cleveland	.486	.528	79	83	-7
Detroit	.479	.491	78	84	-2
Kansas City	.432	.402	70	92	5
WEST
x-LA Angels	.615	.553	99	63	10
Texas	.490	.463	79	83	4
Oakland	.459	.467	75	87	-1
Seattle	.388	.412	63	99	-4

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.565	.567	92	70	0
Philadelphia	.547	.573	89	73	-4
Florida	.514	.481	83	79	5
Atlanta	.443	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.378	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.603	.626	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.561	.546	91	71	2
Houston	.544	.495	87	75	8
St. Louis	.527	.531	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.453	.433	73	89	3
Pittsburgh	.419	.405	68	94	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.520	.533	84	78	-2
Arizona	.490	.505	80	82	-2
San Francisco	.453	.418	73	89	6
Colorado	.450	.446	73	89	1
San Diego	.383	.410	62	100	-4

14: Real World Magic Number, Little Action

2008-09-13T23:04:00.000-07:00

All those rainouts so little action again tonight. A couple of teams have shortened their RWM#, though not too much.

AL	W	PW	RW Magic #
East
Tampa Bay	88	97	9
Boston	87	96	11

Central
Minnesota	82	90	9
Chicago Sox	81	90	10

West
x-LA Angels	91	99	0

Wild Card
Boston	87	96	4
Minnesota	82	90	15

NL
East
NY Mets	83	92	7
Philadelphia	81	89	12

Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16

West
LA Dodgers	77	84	4
Arizona	72	80	13

Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	81	89	11

15: Not Much Action Due to Ike

2008-09-13T10:37:00.000-07:00

I will be posting only the new Real World Magic Number stat from here on out, unless there is a compelling change in results or other reason. For now, I will see how this RWM# works as an actual predictor of the course of events over the next few weeks. The only changes from yesterday due to the major storms around the East Coast were the Rays and Red Sox both reducing their numbers, as well as the White Sox and the Dodgers, all by 1.

PS: Kudos to ESPN for incorporating an expanded version of standings that takes into account some of the same things I do, and also utilizes a similar system as BaseballProspectus. They are using Coolstanding to get their playoff odds data. Both Coolstanding and BP use Monte Carlo simulations for their predictions, where I simply use a derivative of Pythagorean Expectation and actual performance for my predictions. As I pointed out before, these numbers are highly correlated and usually the same.

AL	W	PW	RW Magic #
East
Tampa Bay	87	97	10
Boston	86	96	12

Central
Chicago Sox	81	90	9
Minnesota	80	89	11

West
x-LA Angels	90	98	0

Wild Card
Boston	86	96	4
Minnesota	80	89	17

NL
East
NY Mets	82	92	8
Philadelphia	80	89	13

Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16

West
LA Dodgers	76	84	5
Arizona	72	80	13

Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	80	89	12

Playoff "Real World" Magic Number, next up to clinch: Cubs

2008-09-11T21:28:00.000-07:00

AL
East	W	PW	RW Magic #
Tampa Bay	87	97	9
Boston	85	95	13

Central
Chicago Sox	81	90	9
Minnesota	80	89	11

West
x-LA Angels	88	97	0

Wild Card
Boston	85	95	5
Minnesota	80	89	16

NL
East
NY Mets	82	92	8
Philadelphia	80	89	13

Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16

West
LA Dodgers	75	83	6
Arizona	71	80	13

Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	80	89	12

A New Way to the Magic Number

2008-09-11T19:23:00.000-07:00

Later this evening I will be posting a new "version" of the Magic Number. The way this has been calculated is by taking the predicted finish of the second place team, and subtracting the number of games left to achieve that number of games. So for instance, the Cubs' real Magic Number is 13, but subtracting out the expected games that Milwaukee is expected to lose according to their pythagorean record, the "real world" Magic Number, or RW Magic #, is actually less than that, closer to 6.

One thing different about the RW Magic # is that it does not figure in opponent's losses. So if the Cubs have an RW M# of 6, that means they have to win 6 games by the end of the season and that should be all it takes. Of course, this number will change as the second place team goes on a winning streak, but will stay the same if they play according to their predicted wins.

If anyone is interested in the actual formula, let me know and I will post it.

16: Status Quo--Rays, Red & White Sox, Angels in ALCS; Mets, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers in NLCS

2008-09-11T09:18:00.000-07:00

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.604	.568	97	65	6
Boston	.586	.611	95	67	-4
Toronto	.538	.579	88	74	-7
NY Yankees	.527	.525	85	77	0
Baltimore	.444	.467	72	90	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.559	.564	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.552	.561	90	72	-1
Cleveland	.493	.532	81	81	-6
Kansas City	.424	.396	68	94	4
Detroit	.479	.491	78	84	-2
WEST
x-LA Angels	.607	.548	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.459	78	84	4
Oakland	.462	.471	75	87	-1
Seattle	.396	.416	64	98	-3

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.566	.564	92	70	0
Philadelphia	.541	.568	88	74	-4
Florida	.507	.479	82	80	4
Atlanta	.438	.481	72	90	-7
Washington	.384	.384	62	100	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.600	.626	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.568	.552	92	70	3
Houston	.541	.490	87	75	8
St. Louis	.538	.539	87	75	0
Pittsburgh	.414	.401	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.452	.433	73	89	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.514	.526	83	79	-2
Arizona	.490	.505	80	82	-2
Colorado	.459	.454	74	88	1
San Francisco	.448	.415	72	90	5
San Diego	.384	.409	63	99	-4

18: Boston First, Yankees in 4th in the AL East? Dodgers to Survive Into October? Only the Angels Have a Guaranteed Slot...

2008-09-09T17:05:00.000-07:00

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Boston	.594	.614	97	65	-3
Tampa Bay	.599	.566	96	66	5
Toronto	.538	.576	88	74	-6
NY Yankees	.528	.522	85	77	1
Baltimore	.451	.474	73	89	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.559	.569	91	71	-2
Minnesota	.545	.554	89	73	-1
Detroit	.486	.494	79	83	-1
Cleveland	.486	.525	79	83	-6
Kansas City	.430	.403	69	93	4
WEST
LA Angels	.608	.552	97	65	9
Texas	.486	.456	78	84	5
Oakland	.455	.468	74	88	-2
Seattle	.394	.417	64	98	-4

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.549	.574	89	73	-4
Florida	.500	.474	81	81	4
Atlanta	.431	.477	71	91	-8
Washington	.389	.384	63	99	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.601	.627	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.569	.553	92	70	3
St. Louis	.538	.539	87	75	0
Houston	.535	.483	86	76	8
Cincinnati	.451	.432	73	89	3
Pittsburgh	.420	.406	68	94	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.507	.519	82	80	-2
Arizona	.497	.506	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.456	75	87	1
San Francisco	.441	.412	71	91	5
San Diego	.389	.415	63	99	-4

19: The Suspense Is Building, Though Really Only for the Twins/White Sox, Mets/Phillies and D-Backs/Dodgers

2008-09-08T15:02:00.000-07:00

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.603	.569	97	65	6
Boston	.592	.613	96	66	-3
Toronto	.535	.575	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.531	.530	86	76	0
Baltimore	.447	.467	73	89	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.563	.570	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.545	.554	89	73	-1
Cleveland	.489	.533	80	82	-7
Detroit	.483	.490	78	84	-1
Kansas City	.430	.403	69	93	4
WEST
LA Angels	.606	.544	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.456	78	84	5
Oakland	.458	.472	74	88	-2
Seattle	.394	.417	64	98	-4

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.545	.574	89	73	-5
Florida	.503	.476	81	81	5
Atlanta	.431	.477	71	91	-8
Washington	.389	.384	63	99	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.601	.627	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.573	.554	93	69	3
St. Louis	.538	.539	87	75	0
Houston	.531	.482	85	77	8
Cincinnati	.448	.431	72	90	3
Pittsburgh	.423	.406	68	94	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.510	.522	83	79	-2
Arizona	.500	.509	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.456	75	87	1
San Francisco	.437	.409	70	92	5
San Diego	.385	.412	63	99	-4

20: Things are Getting Interesting

2008-09-07T12:52:00.000-07:00

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.607	.570	98	64	6
Boston	.589	.610	96	66	-3
NY Yankees	.535	.533	87	75	0
Toronto	.532	.574	87	75	-7
Baltimore	.447	.467	73	89	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.567	.571	92	70	-1
Minnesota	.549	.555	89	73	-1
Cleveland	.486	.532	80	82	-7
Kansas City	.433	.405	69	93	5
Detroit	.479	.488	78	84	-2
WEST
LA Angels	.603	.543	96	66	10
Texas	.490	.459	79	83	5
Oakland	.458	.472	74	88	-2
Seattle	.390	.414	64	98	-4

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.560	.564	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.546	.574	89	73	-5
Florida	.507	.477	82	80	5
Atlanta	.434	.479	71	91	-7
Washington	.385	.381	62	100	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.606	.628	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.577	.561	93	69	3
St. Louis	.535	.538	87	75	0
Houston	.528	.481	85	77	8
Cincinnati	.444	.430	72	90	2
Pittsburgh	.426	.408	69	93	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.507	.520	82	80	-2
Arizona	.504	.511	82	80	-1
Colorado	.469	.457	76	86	2
San Francisco	.433	.403	69	93	5
San Diego	.380	.404	62	100	-4

What Does the Loss of Carlos Quentin Mean to the White Sox' Playoff Chances?

2008-09-06T14:48:00.000-07:00

According to BaseballProspectus, Carlos Quentin has a WARP of 7.4. For those of you not familiar with WARP, it stands for Wins Above Replacement Player. In Quentin's case, it would mean that he will help his team win 7.4 more games than your average left fielder, or in the case of the Sox, more than, say, Griffey. With only 22 games left in the season for the Pale Hose, that means that his injury will cost the team approximately one game in the standings.

As you see below in today's predictive standings, the Sox have a two game lead on the Twins, so dropping that prediction by one basically means that it shouldn't hurt them too badly, but it definitely means they don't have any wiggle room and need to continue to play at their pythagorean expectation, or the Twins will be able to tie or pass them in the standings by the end of the season. Good luck.

21: More Races Than We Would Have Thought As We Enter the Last Three Weeks of Play

2008-09-06T12:15:00.000-07:00

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.612	.573	98	64	6
Boston	.593	.617	97	65	-4
NY Yankees	.532	.531	86	76	0
Toronto	.529	.572	87	75	-7
Baltimore	.450	.469	73	89	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.564	.571	92	70	-1
Minnesota	.553	.557	90	72	-1
Cleveland	.489	.533	80	82	-7
Kansas City	.429	.403	69	93	4
Detroit	.475	.487	77	85	-2
WEST
LA Angels	.607	.544	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.454	78	84	5
Oakland	.454	.469	74	88	-2
Seattle	.393	.416	64	98	-4

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.560	.564	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.546	.574	89	73	-5
Florida	.511	.478	82	80	5
Atlanta	.437	.481	72	90	-7
Washington	.380	.377	62	100	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.603	.627	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.574	.561	93	69	2
St. Louis	.532	.537	86	76	-1
Houston	.525	.479	84	78	7
Cincinnati	.447	.432	72	90	2
Pittsburgh	.429	.408	69	93	3
WEST
Arizona	.507	.515	82	80	-1
LA Dodgers	.504	.516	82	80	-2
Colorado	.472	.459	76	86	2
San Francisco	.429	.402	69	93	4
San Diego	.383	.405	62	100	-3

22: White Sox and Mets Solidify the Quicksand of First Place They're Currently In...

2008-09-04T21:09:00.000-07:00

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.616	.575	99	63	7
Boston	.590	.612	96	66	-4
NY Yankees	.536	.532	87	75	1
Toronto	.525	.571	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.453	.475	74	88	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.561	.566	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.550	.552	89	73	0
Cleveland	.486	.529	80	82	-7
Detroit	.479	.492	78	84	-2
Kansas City	.432	.406	69	93	4
WEST
LA Angels	.612	.551	98	64	10
Texas	.489	.458	79	83	5
Oakland	.450	.460	73	89	-2
Seattle	.388	.414	64	98	-4

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.564	.567	91	71	0
Philadelphia	.543	.572	89	73	-5
Florida	.507	.476	81	81	5
Atlanta	.433	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.383	.380	62	100	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.607	.634	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.571	.560	92	70	2
St. Louis	.536	.539	87	75	-1
Houston	.529	.480	85	77	8
Pittsburgh	.424	.403	68	94	3
Cincinnati	.443	.426	71	91	3
WEST
Arizona	.511	.521	83	79	-2
LA Dodgers	.500	.510	81	81	-2
Colorado	.468	.457	76	86	2
San Francisco	.432	.407	69	93	4
San Diego	.386	.405	63	99	-3

23: Boston Red Sox Closing the Gap on Tampa Bay, Mets Still Hanging On, Arizona is Picture of Mediocrity

2008-09-04T11:51:00.000-07:00

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.613	.574	98	64	6
Boston	.590	.612	96	66	-4
NY Yankees	.540	.534	87	75	1
Toronto	.522	.564	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.453	.475	74	88	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.561	.566	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.554	.559	90	72	-1
Cleveland	.486	.529	80	82	-7
Detroit	.482	.496	78	84	-2
Kansas City	.423	.402	68	94	4
WEST
LA Angels	.609	.547	97	65	10
Texas	.489	.458	79	83	5
Oakland	.457	.463	74	88	-1
Seattle	.388	.414	64	98	-4

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.564	.567	91	71	0
Philadelphia	.543	.572	89	73	-5
Florida	.507	.476	81	81	5
Atlanta	.429	.476	70	92	-8
Washington	.386	.381	62	100	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.607	.634	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.576	.563	93	69	2
St. Louis	.536	.539	87	75	-1
Houston	.529	.480	85	77	8
Pittsburgh	.428	.403	69	93	4
Cincinnati	.439	.423	71	91	3
WEST
Arizona	.511	.521	83	79	-2
LA Dodgers	.500	.510	81	81	-2
Colorado	.468	.457	76	86	2
San Francisco	.432	.407	69	93	4
San Diego	.381	.402	62	100	-3

24: Some Races Tightening Up?

2008-09-03T06:58:00.000-07:00

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.618	.578	99	63	6
Boston	.587	.612	96	66	-4
NY Yankees	.536	.531	87	75	1
Toronto	.518	.563	85	77	-7
Baltimore	.457	.476	74	88	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.558	.565	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.558	.560	90	72	0
Cleveland	.489	.531	80	82	-7
Detroit	.478	.494	78	84	-3
Kansas City	.423	.402	68	94	4
WEST
LA Angels	.613	.550	98	64	10
Texas	.486	.458	78	84	5
Oakland	.457	.463	74	88	-1
Seattle	.391	.415	64	98	-4

NL
EAST
NY Mets	.561	.562	91	71	0
Philadelphia	.547	.574	89	73	-4
Florida	.504	.474	81	81	5
Atlanta	.432	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.381	.378	62	100	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.612	.637	100	62	-4
Milwaukee	.580	.569	94	68	2
St. Louis	.540	.540	87	75	0
Houston	.525	.477	84	78	8
Pittsburgh	.423	.402	68	94	3
Cincinnati	.442	.424	71	91	3
WEST
Arizona	.507	.520	82	80	-2
LA Dodgers	.496	.509	81	81	-2
Colorado	.471	.462	76	86	2
San Francisco	.428	.400	69	93	4
San Diego	.384	.403	63	99	-3