Tuesday, October 27, 2009

2009 World Series in a Statshell: New York is Probably Going to Win

Hello fellow baseball travellers, and welcome to the World Series! My friends who favor the Cubs are probably not bothering with this series, but my fellow New Yorkers have brought out their Yankees paraphernalia in full force: World Series-mania has hit the Big Apple with a vengeance. Will A-Rod become the new Mr. October? Will Derek Jeter continue his mastery of November? Will Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett finally bring peace to the long-suffering Gothamites (well, they haven't won either in this century or in this millennium after all...)?

Well, the City of Brothelly Love will certainly try to keep that suffering going longer. What do the numbers say? Well, Yankee's fans, this is your year. I almost didn't even bother running the numbers, thinking it was extremely lop-sided. It actually isn't. While the Bronx Bombers have a 56% chance of winning the Series, that is certainly not the highest probability I've ever seen. I was surprised to find that the Phillies have an excellent Away record (check out the table below), and that the Yankees are a little vulnerable there. Even though they have a better than 50/50 chance of winning, it's only slightly better.

If the Phillies win the first game, it gives them an immediate 61% of taking the series. Of course if the Yanks win it'll be even more dire for the Sons of the Liberty Bell: New York would have a commanding 70/30 chance to win the Series.

Game on!

World Series H PWP A PWP Win Sweep
Phillies 0.553 0.592 44% 5%


0.621 0.571 56% 8%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage
A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage
These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small. See my post from last year about what it is and how it works.

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