Monday, November 2, 2009

Bronx New World: Most Likely Scenario is Yankees in 6

The Phillies are hanging by a thread, and we're about to see if Charlie Manuel made the right decision by resting Cliff Lee fully and Girardi made the wrong one with short rest for Sabathia/Burnett.

Of the remaining scenarios, 6-game or full 7 game Series, the Yankees have a 53% to do the former, and only a 25% of the latter. If it does go to Game Seven, it will be the single-game Log 5 probability, with the Yankees having the advantage, of course (as you see below).

World SeriesH PWPA PWPWinNext Game only



H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage
A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage
These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small. See my post from last year about what it is and how it works.

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