What the Stats Say, vs. What I Think Might Happen: 2009 Baseball Season Predictions Part II

Last month I posted the table you see below. This is how pure stats, using Bill James' Win Shares (though with the Hardball Times version of Win Shares Above Bench--that is, the difference between the player and an average bench player) predicts the upcoming season. I will take this information, and argue where the stats might be pulling a Disraeli. I reproduce the table from the previous post again:

AL
EAST	2008 WP	2008 P WP	P W+new	P L	Win Shares Net
Tampa Bay	.600	.572	99	63	2
Boston	.588	.600	98	64	2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	92	70	3
Toronto	.531	.573	82	80	-4
Baltimore	.421	.452	69	93	1
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	90	72	2
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	0
Cleveland	.500	.527	83	79	2
Detroit	.459	.482	76	86	1
Kansas City	.463	.441	74	88	0
WEST
LA Angels	.619	.545	98	64	-2
Oakland	.472	.470	81	81	4
Texas	.488	.466	73	89	-6
Seattle	.369	.402	56	106	-3
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	93	69	2
NY Mets	.550	.556	92	70	3
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	0
Atlanta	.444	.481	76	86	4
Washington	.371	.379	61	101	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	97	65	-1
Houston	.535	.481	85	77	-1
St. Louis	.525	.530	83	79	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	81	81	-9
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	0
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	0
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	1
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	0
Colorado	.463	.454	74	88	-1
San Francisco	.440	.413	74	88	3
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	1

Let's start at the top with the AL East. I've looked at the predictions by many of the mainstream sportswriters, like ESPN and Sports Illustrated, and they seem to really discount the Tampa Bay Rays chances. 90% of them seem to think the Yankees are going to somehow end up in first place, with the Red Sox winning the Wild Card. I'll go with the stats and say that the Yankees are basically a 3rd place team in this division. They just did not gain enough to really outdo what they lost from last year (Giambi, Mussina, Abreu, mostly). I do think, though, that the Red Sox will come in 1st place, followed by the Rays, who should get the Wild Card, though it will be close and the same finish as last year could certainly happen again.

In the Central, I fear the White Sox will not have enough to get them to 1st place again, and will fall behind both the Twins and the Indians, but it will be close among the three the whole season. If Mauer stays healthy, along with Morneau, and Liriano can make a comeback--it's the Twins in the playoffs. If Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona do what they've done in the past, it could be Cleveland. And if the White Sox again over-achieve under Ozzie Guillen, they could steal some October time again.

In the West, it's simple: all Angels--they have no real competition unless disaster strikes.

In the NL East, the stats show a dog-fight between the Mets and the Phillies. I was surprised that Frankie Rodriguez was only worth 7 win shares above bench, considering he set a Saves record. I think the one game statistical difference might be made up by the fact that the Mets will win more games they lead after the 8th inning than they did last year (they lost 11 of these) and that the Phillies will lose more of these (they lost NONE--Brad Lidge had a career season!). Figure Lidge to lose a couple games this year and the Mets to do better under Frankie K. It won't really matter because the runner-up in this division will still move to the playoffs.

Despite the gloom and doom in Cubdom, it will take some major disasters for the Cubs to not make the playoffs again, and of course their problem is how far they will go after they make it. I think they at least get past the first round this year. The Reds might be the most improved in this division, but I still think that St. Louis, under an always-overachieving LaRussa team will still come in 2nd followed by the Brewers.

If Manny decides to go back to being Manny (meaning the Boston Manny), the Dodgers could lose to a good Arizona team, but more than likely, Manny will take his bat into October again.