Yankees Lose! Yankees Win! Yankees ? ? ? ? ? Yes It Could Go 7...

Fret not, Yankees fans: Log 5 Probability is on your side! After a home split leaving the Series at 1-1, the Yankees advantage has only slightly moved down from the first day. A home loss basically dropped their win probability for the Series from 56% to 54%.

Additionally, if you look at the Yankees' winning percentage on the road vs. the Phillies' percentage at home--all of a sudden, home not so sweet home for the Phanatics: .571 vs. .553. I will admit, though, that the number as calculated does NOT take into account the fact that the Yanks winning percentage during the season was accomplished with the DH, not the pitcher, as will be the case in Philadelphia. But it still goes to show that the Yankees are by no means down away from home.

Of the remaining scenarios, 5-game, 6-game or full 7 game Series, the Yankees have the advantage in all of them by roughly 3%-5%, with the most likely outcome being a 7-game Series in which the Yankees have about a 3% chance better than the Phillies to win.

World Series	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Next Game only
Phillies	0.553	0.592	46%	48%
Yankees	0.621	0.571	54%	52%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small. See my post from last year about what it is and how it works.

2009 World Series in a Statshell: New York is Probably Going to Win

Hello fellow baseball travellers, and welcome to the World Series! My friends who favor the Cubs are probably not bothering with this series, but my fellow New Yorkers have brought out their Yankees paraphernalia in full force: World Series-mania has hit the Big Apple with a vengeance. Will A-Rod become the new Mr. October? Will Derek Jeter continue his mastery of November? Will Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett finally bring peace to the long-suffering Gothamites (well, they haven't won either in this century or in this millennium after all...)?

Well, the City of Brothelly Love will certainly try to keep that suffering going longer. What do the numbers say? Well, Yankee's fans, this is your year. I almost didn't even bother running the numbers, thinking it was extremely lop-sided. It actually isn't. While the Bronx Bombers have a 56% chance of winning the Series, that is certainly not the highest probability I've ever seen. I was surprised to find that the Phillies have an excellent Away record (check out the table below), and that the Yankees are a little vulnerable there. Even though they have a better than 50/50 chance of winning, it's only slightly better.

If the Phillies win the first game, it gives them an immediate 61% of taking the series. Of course if the Yanks win it'll be even more dire for the Sons of the Liberty Bell: New York would have a commanding 70/30 chance to win the Series.

Game on!

World Series	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Phillies	0.553	0.592	44%	5%
Yankees	0.621	0.571	56%	8%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small. See my post from last year about what it is and how it works.

What the Stats Say, vs. What I Think Might Happen: 2009 Baseball Season Predictions Part II

Last month I posted the table you see below. This is how pure stats, using Bill James' Win Shares (though with the Hardball Times version of Win Shares Above Bench--that is, the difference between the player and an average bench player) predicts the upcoming season. I will take this information, and argue where the stats might be pulling a Disraeli. I reproduce the table from the previous post again:

AL
EAST	2008 WP	2008 P WP	P W+new	P L	Win Shares Net
Tampa Bay	.600	.572	99	63	2
Boston	.588	.600	98	64	2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	92	70	3
Toronto	.531	.573	82	80	-4
Baltimore	.421	.452	69	93	1
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	90	72	2
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	0
Cleveland	.500	.527	83	79	2
Detroit	.459	.482	76	86	1
Kansas City	.463	.441	74	88	0
WEST
LA Angels	.619	.545	98	64	-2
Oakland	.472	.470	81	81	4
Texas	.488	.466	73	89	-6
Seattle	.369	.402	56	106	-3
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	93	69	2
NY Mets	.550	.556	92	70	3
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	0
Atlanta	.444	.481	76	86	4
Washington	.371	.379	61	101	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	97	65	-1
Houston	.535	.481	85	77	-1
St. Louis	.525	.530	83	79	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	81	81	-9
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	0
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	0
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	1
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	0
Colorado	.463	.454	74	88	-1
San Francisco	.440	.413	74	88	3
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	1

Let's start at the top with the AL East. I've looked at the predictions by many of the mainstream sportswriters, like ESPN and Sports Illustrated, and they seem to really discount the Tampa Bay Rays chances. 90% of them seem to think the Yankees are going to somehow end up in first place, with the Red Sox winning the Wild Card. I'll go with the stats and say that the Yankees are basically a 3rd place team in this division. They just did not gain enough to really outdo what they lost from last year (Giambi, Mussina, Abreu, mostly). I do think, though, that the Red Sox will come in 1st place, followed by the Rays, who should get the Wild Card, though it will be close and the same finish as last year could certainly happen again.

In the Central, I fear the White Sox will not have enough to get them to 1st place again, and will fall behind both the Twins and the Indians, but it will be close among the three the whole season. If Mauer stays healthy, along with Morneau, and Liriano can make a comeback--it's the Twins in the playoffs. If Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona do what they've done in the past, it could be Cleveland. And if the White Sox again over-achieve under Ozzie Guillen, they could steal some October time again.

In the West, it's simple: all Angels--they have no real competition unless disaster strikes.

In the NL East, the stats show a dog-fight between the Mets and the Phillies. I was surprised that Frankie Rodriguez was only worth 7 win shares above bench, considering he set a Saves record. I think the one game statistical difference might be made up by the fact that the Mets will win more games they lead after the 8th inning than they did last year (they lost 11 of these) and that the Phillies will lose more of these (they lost NONE--Brad Lidge had a career season!). Figure Lidge to lose a couple games this year and the Mets to do better under Frankie K. It won't really matter because the runner-up in this division will still move to the playoffs.

Despite the gloom and doom in Cubdom, it will take some major disasters for the Cubs to not make the playoffs again, and of course their problem is how far they will go after they make it. I think they at least get past the first round this year. The Reds might be the most improved in this division, but I still think that St. Louis, under an always-overachieving LaRussa team will still come in 2nd followed by the Brewers.

If Manny decides to go back to being Manny (meaning the Boston Manny), the Dodgers could lose to a good Arizona team, but more than likely, Manny will take his bat into October again.

As It Stands: If the Season Started With the Rosters Today...

Welcome back, loyal readers! The winter is almost over, and we're close to the beginning of the baseball season (I know because the clock just moved forward one hour and daylight lasts until 7pm).

Every year I look at how the Win Shares (as described by Bill James, and calculated for the season by The Hardball Times) have changed via trades and free agent signings. Since three Win Shares equal one win, a team that gains 6 Win Shares by signing free agent would therefore win two more games than they would had they not signed anyone. I go one step further: since a team would likely replace a departing player with at least an average player, I prefer to use Hardball Times' Win Shares Above Bench, meaning that the player in question is worth that many more wins over a replacement average player.

Let's look at an example: the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. In the offseason, they've done the following, with their accompanying Win Shares gained/lost:

• Lost Pat Burrell (9 WSAB)
• Signed Raul Ibanez (11 WSAB)
• Signed Chan Ho Park (3 WSAB)
• a bunch of releases and signings that net to roughly zero

The Phillies adjusted Pythagorean Record last year was 91 wins. Subtract Burrell's 9 WSAB, add in Ibanez (11) and Park (3) which equals 14-9=5, divide by 3 to get the additional wins, in this case 2. Therefore, based on last year's Phillies' team doing roughly the same all else being equal would win two more games because of the roster changes. I followed this same basic process for all the teams, and the result is the following table:

AL
EAST	2008 WP	2008 P WP	P W+new	P L	Win Shares Net
Tampa Bay	.600	.572	99	63	2
Boston	.588	.600	98	64	2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	92	70	3
Toronto	.531	.573	82	80	-4
Baltimore	.421	.452	69	93	1
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	90	72	2
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	0
Cleveland	.500	.527	83	79	2
Detroit	.459	.482	76	86	1
Kansas City	.463	.441	74	88	0
WEST
LA Angels	.619	.545	98	64	-2
Oakland	.472	.470	81	81	4
Texas	.488	.466	73	89	-6
Seattle	.369	.402	56	106	-3
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	93	69	2
NY Mets	.550	.556	92	70	3
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	0
Atlanta	.444	.481	76	86	4
Washington	.371	.379	61	101	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	97	65	-1
Houston	.535	.481	85	77	-1
St. Louis	.525	.530	83	79	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	81	81	-9
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	0
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	0
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	1
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	0
Colorado	.463	.454	74	88	-1
San Francisco	.440	.413	74	88	3
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	1

The biggest winner in the AL is Oakland, although unfortunately those 4 games will likely only translate into a 2nd place finish. The biggest loser in that league will be the Rangers. The most interesting story will probably be the AL East, where it looks like Boston and Tampa Bay will again be neck and neck for the season, with the Yankees coming a close 3rd.

The Yankees are interesting: they added Teixeira (13), Sabathia (18), Burnett (8)--a whopping 39 WSAB (or roughly 13 wins above replacement players)! Unfortunately, though, they lost Mussina (13), Abreu (11), and Giambi (6), or 30/3 = 10 games, which you can see shows where they gain 3 games in the standings.

In the NL, the most improved team will be the Braves, but the biggest winner is the Cubs, on the strength of the Brewers being the biggest losers (9 games in the standings!). Losing Sheets (11), Sabathia (13), and on lesser level, Shouse (4) for a total of 28 WSAB lost.

Even with all the changes, the only race that looks like it would change from last year is that the Twins would beat the White Sox by two games.

Keep in mind, that this is using the stats from last season, and while the best predictor of the future is the past, that doesn't mean that it always ends up that way--look at the stock market from last year to this year for case in point.

If there is any more activity prior to the beginning of the season, I will duly note the changes.

Winning the First Game on the Road Gives Huge Boost to Win Probability for Phillies

WS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	30%	0%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	70%	16%

Taking away the home-field advantage from the Rays puts the Phillies in position to do what they could not in 1993: win the World Series. Although they do have 70% chance of winning now, the Rays still have a 60% chance of winning Game 2, which could swing things back to at least toss-up status.

Phillies Are No Slouches--Rays Have a Tough Series Even With Home Advantage

Back when the Cubs were the team to beat, I always thought the Phillies would present the toughest challenge. I should have known better that, once October rolls around, even a team made up of Florida Seniors could beat them. One thing I also knew, is that both Boston or Tampa Bay were better than any NL team. So if we look at the numbers alone, sans context, the World Series will be a toss-up, with the slight advantage going to the Phillies, based on their Road record particularly. 

The big caveat in this, though, is that the Phils play in the National League which is not as strong a league as the AL, and particularly not as strong as the survivor of the AL East, which is a beast (and I will stop the rhyme there).

Whoever wins the first game will certainly get the edge, because then, in either case, that winner will hold a 70% chance of taking the Series.

WS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	5%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	51%	7%

Home for Three

Rays are back in it, as are the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the second best winning percentage at home, Red Sox have the best. I bet LA will win at least one more home game. The Red Sox could very well sweep at home (hence the great chance of winning still, even though the series is 1-1).

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	41%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	59%	0%
NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	72%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	28%	0%

According to Hoyle...

Odds for the Phillies making it to the Series have gone up sharply with their two victories, and winning the first game has made a world (series) of difference for the Red Sox, who now are most likely to win the series. The Dodgers home winning percentage probably means that they should be able to win at least one at home, but the Phillies are no slouches on the road.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	30%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	70%	16%
NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	82%	18%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	18%	0%

Who Will Be Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?

Rays/Red Sox is a toss-up--couldn't be a closer matchup. I thought at the beginning of the year that the Red Sox were the best team in the majors and there's no reason to change my mind now. My initial (though un-posted) prediction of the World Series was BoSox over the Cubs. Insert lamentation here. Or just insert Phillies.

This is looking kind of like last year, where I had the Cubs beating Arizona, and Phillies beating the Rockies. Then I had Arizona beating the Rockies--I wasn't right until I finally had the Red Sox over the Rockies. But the numbers don't lie: the Phils are better than the commuter-train-dodgers (sorry, that's bad). If the Dodgers can demoralize the Phillies by taking two in the City of Brothelly Love, they can pull off an upset again.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	19%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	51%	13%
NLCS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	66%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	34%	10%

Die Another Day

The Angels and White Sox live to fight another day and keep slim hopes alive: both of them have the exact same odds to overcome, a 1 in 5 chance of winning their ALDS series. And in case you so enjoyed my anatomy of a stat, here's another one. What are the chances of the White Sox facing the Angels in the ALCS?

1/5 x 1/5 (each is the chance that they will make it to the next round) = 1/25 or 1 in 25 chances would this happen. I've seen worse odds...

Congratulations to the LA Party Poopers, I mean Dodgers, and the Phillies.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	20%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	80%	0%
Rays	0.628	0.515	80%	0%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	20%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	0%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	100%	100%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	100%	0%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	0%	0%

Rays and Red Sox Increase Their Odds, Things Look Bad For Angels and White Sox

The Angels and the White Sox have basically a 1 in 4 chance of making it to the ALCS. Looks like I might not be able to spin out my long-awaited probability of the Cubs meeting the White Sox in the World Series.

The Phillies are playing right now and beating Sabathia badly. The question on the Hot Stove circuit will certainly be "Is it too many starts on 3-days rest down the stretch or is he just not a 'clutch' or capable playoff pitcher?" Last year in the playoffs, his ERA was 9.00...

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	24%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	76%	30%
Rays	0.628	0.515	74%	25%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	26%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	42%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	58%	17%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	69%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	31%	0%

I Guess That Answer's Last Night's Question; Now Updated Playoff Odds

No real changes except that we now have the actual contestants and final runs/runs against. Basically, I still think the Red Sox will beat the Angels (57% chance to do so); Rays will beat the White Sox (61%--Sorry, Chicago, no subway series); Cubs will beat the Dodgers (68%); and even though the Phillies have a 53% chance to beat the Brewers, that is really a toss-up.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	43%	10%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	57%	15%
Rays	0.628	0.515	61%	17%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	39%	6%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	68%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	32%	5%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	53%	14%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	47%	10%

And if each of the teams predicted to lose the series wins the first game, it changes the odds to plus 60% for all of those teams, except one, the Cubs. They would no longer be favored, but the odds would be just under 50/50 for them to pull it out anyway.

White Sox Vs. Twins in One-Game Playoff Tomorrow--Who Wins?

Based on the fact that White Sox are at home tomorrow, where they sport a lofty 0.643 pythagorean winning percentage, and that the Twins will bring their less-than-stellar 0.450 pythagorean road winning percentage, the Sox have a 69% chance of facing the Rays on Thursday, using the log5 win probability.

White Sox Have Good Chance to Tie for the NL Central Title Tomorrow

The White Sox have a 67% chance of beating the Tigers tomorrow and taking this into a Tuesday one-game playoff with the Twins. Very cool.

Playoff Prediction or Fun With Pythagorean, Log5 and Probabilities: Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox Will Advance

Alright folks (all 60 of you now!), you'll hear it here first: the Red Sox will upset the Angels. The Red Sox have an almost 60% chance of taking the series, mostly on the strength of better record on the road, and an unbelievable record at home.

The Rays will almost certainly beat whoever they play, be it the depleted Twins or depleted White Sox.

The Cubs, on the strength of an excellent road record, also have a great chance to proceed to the NLCS, 67% (the most of any of the post-season aspirants). Their home record vs. the road record of the Dodgers is very big, and their excellent road record can almost nullify the great home advantage of the Dodgers. On the other hand, should the Dodgers steal one at Wrigley, that would probably have a significant effect on the outcome.

Phillies should beat the Brewers (57% chance), and that might be more true considering how much Milwaukee's staff was battered and overworked in the last week (except when CC Sabathia pitched).

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Odds to Win Series	Odds to Sweep
Angels	0.525	0.554	41%	9%
Red Sox	0.658	0.536	59%	16%
Rays	0.628	0.514	x%	x%
Twins/WS	0.xxx	0.xxx	x%	x%
NLDS
Cubs	0.642	0.596	67%	21%
Dodgers	0.637	0.456	33%	6%
Phillies	0.588	0.561	58%	16%
Brewers	0.558	0.522	42%	9%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small.

Fun With Probabilities: Brewers/Twins have best shot at postseason

I'm sure every one of my 34 regular readers (according to Google Analytics!) went immediately to their trusty Texas Instruments TI-35 calculators and used my probabilities from yesterdays' posts to calculate overall odds of making the post season for their favorite teams.

You mean you didn't?

OK, then, let's take a look from the spreadsheet. The beauty of probabilities, statistically speaking is that they can be added, subtracted and multiplied to come up with odds of combinations and odds of mutual exclusivity, among the many other possibilities. Here, we'll really look at the combinatorial property.

Before I delve into this, I want to point out that the best description of what I'm doing comes from DiamondMind Baseball. I first posted my playoff version of Bill James Log5 theorem in 2005. What I will be doing in the playoffs is exactly what they describe. You can also find my original description on BigShouldersSports, where I used to occasionally contribute. In essence, I take the home team's winning percentage at home vs. the away teams road winning percentage, all using the pythagorean expectations formula as used during the season, to compute a probability of victory in each game of the series. I then use the combinatorial mathematics to come up with the odds of sweeping, winning two games, or winning just one for each team. As you will see in the playoffs, this also will take into account all five or seven games.

For now, though, we've already had one game, so the odds have changed a little. Looking at the numbers for the Brewers, they have a 49% chance of beating the Cubs twice (since they won last night). The Mets have only a 29% chance of winning two games. The Brewers also have a 33% of winning one game, Mets have a 50% of doing so, facing easier competition. If both teams win one game or both teams win two games, then they end up tied, so we add up both of those probabilities for each team and multiply to get the odds of this happening, which is 64%.

But unfortunately, for the Mets, because they lost yesterday, they do not have the ability to sweep their series and will therefore have to hope that the Brewers will lose at least one game. Otherwise, the chances of the Brewers winning the Wild Card are 59% (odds of sweeping plus odds of winning two games plus odds of winning one game while the Mets lose two plus Mets losing one plus Mets being swept). Those same odds in reverse, i.e. for the Mets to win the WC, are 41%.

If you're wondering why some of those numbers don't total one hundred, it's because these possibilities are mutually exclusive, meaning they exist on their own (this is something I'm sure my regular visitors already know, but I include it in case I get some new visitors that might not). That is not true, though, for the Mets probability (P) of winning, that is exactly 41% because it is calculated 100% (Mets OR Brewers win P) minus 59% (Brewers win P).

Calculating the same for the White Sox and Twins, we get, respectively, 43% and 57%. Best way to check a probability is to do a gut-level check: Twins are playing the Royals, who are the worst team in the league, whereas the Sox are playing the Indians, which are in third place in the division. So the Sox have a tougher schedule.

2: Dead Heat in the AL Central; Brewers Back In the Driver's Seat

Nothing I can add beyond the title--will be interesting.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.572	97	65	5
z-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.531	.573	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.421	.452	68	94	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	88	74	-1
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.527	81	81	-4
Detroit	.459	.482	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.463	.441	75	87	3
WEST
*-LA Angels	.619	.545	100	62	12
Texas	.488	.466	79	83	3
Oakland	.472	.470	76	86	0
Seattle	.369	.402	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.550	.556	89	73	-1
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	3
Atlanta	.444	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.371	.379	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	90	72	2
Houston	.535	.481	86	76	9
St. Louis	.525	.530	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	3
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	-3
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.463	.454	75	87	1
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	-4

Updated, and Now, AL, too

Updated probabilities, plus I've finally included the White Sox and Twins. So how does it look for our finalists, some of whom will go home with consolation prizes (a higher draft pick next summer?).

Important places to look below: the Brewers have an 18% chance to sweep the Cubs, but even if they win only two, their chances of winning two now is almost 50/50. That is in stark contrast to the Mets who have only a 50/50 chance of winning ONE game. The Phillies have practically clinched, so they're not even in the equation anymore. If the Brewers win one more game, that will probably knock the Mets off (sorry, Mets fans).

I think I have to say sorry to White Sox fans also: they have to win the next two games to guarantee a tie, whereas the Twins, winning two games, will win the division. In the immortal words of The Jam, "Here Comes The Weekend"!

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	0.0%	33.1%	48.9%
Brewers	18.1%	48.9%	33.1%
Phillies	45.4%	43.9%	10.6%
Nationals	0.0%	10.6%	43.9%
Mets	0.0%	28.6%	49.8%
Marlins	21.6%	49.8%	28.6%
White Sox	0.0%	48.2%	42.4%
Indians	9.3%	42.4%	48.2%
Twins	0.0%	55.2%	38.2%
KC	6.6%	38.2%	55.2%

Final Weekend: National League Version

The table below is the Log5 probability (I will explain this in a following post) of the possible results in this weekends NL games with Playoff implications. The three columns are probability of a sweep for each team, for getting two wins, and getting one win.

The Brewers and Mets need to win 2 games and the Mets have the best chance of doing that. The numbers absolutely favor the Phillies winning at least one game and very likely two, and the Mets are second most likely to win. Of course, will the Cubs bring their A-Team this weekend? Given what I saw last night in Shea Stadium, they probably won't. Of course, the B-Team sure didn't disappoint too badly.

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	19.3%	42.3%	30.9%
Brewers	7.5%	30.9%	42.3%
Phillies	30.6%	44.4%	21.5%
Nationals	3.5%	21.5%	44.4%
Mets	15.2%	39.8%	34.8%
Marlins	10.1%	34.8%	39.8%

Ed note: My original post incorrectly showed the Cubs as the home team, and they are in fact the visiting team in Milwaukee. The numbers changed slightly.

3: Twins' Dome Sweeps the Sox Out of First, Mets/Brewers Tied--2 games for Any One of Them Will Put Them in the Playoffs

The Mets great game tonight keeps them in contention with the Brewers after their extra inning affair. Boy--the Pirates are the tonic for what ails you in the NL. And the Twins now have the upper hand over the White Sox. This is going to be a great weekend for baseball!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.604	.574	98	64	5
z-Boston	.591	.609	96	66	-3
NY Yankees	.547	.533	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.571	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.547	.557	89	73	-2
Chicago Sox	.544	.554	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.497	.526	81	81	-5
Detroit	.456	.480	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.620	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.367	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.553	.559	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.608	.622	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.542	90	72	2
Houston	.532	.480	86	76	8
St. Louis	.522	.529	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.465	.442	75	87	4
Pittsburgh	.409	.403	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.525	.542	85	77	-3
Arizona	.497	.506	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.455	75	87	2
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.386	.412	63	99	-4