Thursday, October 23, 2008

Winning the First Game on the Road Gives Huge Boost to Win Probability for Phillies

H PWP A PWP Win Sweep
Rays 0.628 0.515 30% 0%
Phillies 0.598 0.561 70% 16%

Taking away the home-field advantage from the Rays puts the Phillies in position to do what they could not in 1993: win the World Series. Although they do have 70% chance of winning now, the Rays still have a 60% chance of winning Game 2, which could swing things back to at least toss-up status.

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