Phillies Are No Slouches--Rays Have a Tough Series Even With Home Advantage

Back when the Cubs were the team to beat, I always thought the Phillies would present the toughest challenge. I should have known better that, once October rolls around, even a team made up of Florida Seniors could beat them. One thing I also knew, is that both Boston or Tampa Bay were better than any NL team. So if we look at the numbers alone, sans context, the World Series will be a toss-up, with the slight advantage going to the Phillies, based on their Road record particularly. 

The big caveat in this, though, is that the Phils play in the National League which is not as strong a league as the AL, and particularly not as strong as the survivor of the AL East, which is a beast (and I will stop the rhyme there).

Whoever wins the first game will certainly get the edge, because then, in either case, that winner will hold a 70% chance of taking the Series.

WS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	5%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	51%	7%

White Sox Vs. Twins in One-Game Playoff Tomorrow--Who Wins?

Based on the fact that White Sox are at home tomorrow, where they sport a lofty 0.643 pythagorean winning percentage, and that the Twins will bring their less-than-stellar 0.450 pythagorean road winning percentage, the Sox have a 69% chance of facing the Rays on Thursday, using the log5 win probability.

What Does the Loss of Carlos Quentin Mean to the White Sox' Playoff Chances?

According to BaseballProspectus, Carlos Quentin has a WARP of 7.4. For those of you not familiar with WARP, it stands for Wins Above Replacement Player. In Quentin's case, it would mean that he will help his team win 7.4 more games than your average left fielder, or in the case of the Sox, more than, say, Griffey. With only 22 games left in the season for the Pale Hose, that means that his injury will cost the team approximately one game in the standings.

As you see below in today's predictive standings, the Sox have a two game lead on the Twins, so dropping that prediction by one basically means that it shouldn't hurt them too badly, but it definitely means they don't have any wiggle room and need to continue to play at their pythagorean expectation, or the Twins will be able to tie or pass them in the standings by the end of the season. Good luck.