40

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.610	.569	97	65	7
Boston	.573	.597	94	68	-4
NY Yankees	.532	.541	87	75	-1
Toronto	.516	.549	85	77	-5
Baltimore	.488	.505	80	82	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.569	.579	93	69	-2
Minnesota	.569	.542	91	71	4
Detroit	.484	.507	79	83	-4
Kansas City	.444	.404	70	92	6
Cleveland	.455	.504	76	86	-8
WEST
LA Angels	.623	.557	98	64	11
Texas	.496	.457	79	83	6
Oakland	.455	.492	75	87	-6
Seattle	.374	.417	62	100	-7
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.548	.554	89	73	-1
Philadelphia	.532	.559	87	75	-4
Florida	.512	.474	82	80	6
Atlanta	.452	.504	75	87	-9
Washington	.352	.354	57	105	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.613	.638	100	62	-4
Milwaukee	.568	.541	91	71	4
St. Louis	.551	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.508	.471	81	81	6
Cincinnati	.440	.414	70	92	4
Pittsburgh	.444	.427	71	91	3
WEST
Arizona	.516	.532	84	78	-3
LA Dodgers	.516	.534	84	78	-3
Colorado	.452	.450	73	89	0
San Francisco	.423	.397	67	95	4
San Diego	.387	.401	63	99	-2

41

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.607	.567	97	65	6
Boston	.577	.608	95	67	-5
NY Yankees	.528	.533	86	76	-1
Toronto	.512	.539	84	78	-4
Baltimore	.484	.498	79	83	-2
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.566	.570	92	70	-1
Minnesota	.566	.540	91	71	4
Detroit	.488	.514	80	82	-4
Kansas City	.447	.410	71	91	6
Cleveland	.451	.504	75	87	-9
WEST
LA Angels	.628	.558	99	63	11
Texas	.500	.459	79	83	7
Oakland	.459	.504	76	86	-7
Seattle	.377	.418	63	99	-7
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.545	.550	88	74	-1
Philadelphia	.528	.558	87	75	-5
Florida	.516	.480	82	80	6
Atlanta	.455	.506	76	86	-8
Washington	.355	.357	58	104	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.610	.634	100	62	-4
Milwaukee	.573	.543	92	70	5
St. Louis	.556	.542	90	72	2
Houston	.504	.468	80	82	6
Cincinnati	.435	.410	70	92	4
Pittsburgh	.447	.430	72	90	3
WEST
Arizona	.520	.535	85	77	-2
LA Dodgers	.512	.533	84	78	-3
Colorado	.448	.445	72	90	0
San Francisco	.418	.395	67	95	4
San Diego	.390	.402	64	98	-2

42

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.612	.570	97	65	7
Boston	.582	.611	95	67	-5
NY Yankees	.525	.533	85	77	-1
Toronto	.508	.536	83	79	-4
Baltimore	.488	.500	80	83	-2
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.562	.569	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.562	.539	90	72	4
Detroit	.484	.512	79	83	-5
Kansas City	.451	.411	71	91	6
Cleveland	.455	.504	76	86	-8
WEST
LA Angels	.625	.557	98	64	11
Texas	.496	.457	79	83	6
Oakland	.463	.505	77	85	-7
Seattle	.380	.418	63	99	-6
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.533	.563	88	74	-5
NY Mets	.541	.548	88	74	-1
Florida	.512	.479	82	80	5
Atlanta	.451	.501	75	87	-8
Washington	.358	.361	58	104	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.615	.635	100	62	-3
Milwaukee	.569	.543	91	71	4
St. Louis	.552	.537	89	73	2
Houston	.508	.473	81	81	6
Cincinnati	.439	.414	70	92	4
Pittsburgh	.451	.432	72	90	3
WEST
Arizona	.516	.530	84	78	-2
LA Dodgers	.516	.534	84	78	-3
Colorado	.444	.439	72	90	1
San Francisco	.421	.399	67	95	4
San Diego	.385	.396	63	99	-2

43 (Games To Go)

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.608	.564	97	65	7
Boston	.582	.611	95	67	-5
NY Yankees	.529	.534	86	76	-1
Toronto	.508	.536	83	79	-4
Baltimore	.483	.493	79	83	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.567	.572	92	70	-1
Minnesota	.558	.535	89	73	4
Detroit	.488	.520	80	82	-5
Kansas City	.446	.410	71	91	6
Cleveland	.450	.504	75	87	-9
WEST
LA Angels	.630	.559	99	63	12
Texas	.500	.462	79	83	6
Oakland	.458	.503	76	86	-7
Seattle	.383	.423	64	98	-6
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.529	.562	87	75	-5
NY Mets	.537	.547	87	75	-2
Florida	.516	.479	82	80	6
Atlanta	.455	.505	76	86	-8
Washington	.361	.361	58	104	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.612	.635	100	62	-4
Milwaukee	.574	.545	92	70	5
St. Louis	.548	.536	88	74	2
Houston	.512	.481	82	80	5
Cincinnati	.443	.415	71	91	4
Pittsburgh	.455	.433	73	89	4
WEST
Arizona	.512	.521	83	79	-1
LA Dodgers	.512	.532	84	78	-3
Colorado	.439	.437	71	91	0
San Francisco	.417	.395	67	95	4
San Diego	.388	.397	63	99	-1

Welcome to Sabermetrati!

What is Sabermetrati? At it's simplest, it will be the means of posting my predictive standings every day. Some days I'll post it before the games begin, sometimes after all games are complete. Check the time stamp to determine if it included all or some games for the day. I will also be posting assorted other baseball statistics, and baseball-related musings.

For those of you who are new to my method, I want to briefly describe it. The predictive standings are called that because they are a prediction of what the final standings will be at the end of the season. The method that I'm using is a derivative of the Bill James Pythagorean Record "theorem" which basically takes the runs scored and the runs against to produce a theoretical winning percentage, as opposed to the standard winning percentage (which is simply wins/total games played).

Here are the formulas used, for those who might be interested:

• Predicted Winning Percentage = Runs²/(runs²+runs against²)
  
• Predicted Wins = Actual Wins + (Predicted Winning Percentage x Games Remaining)
• Predicted Losses = 162 - Predicted Wins
• Over-Performance Index = (Actual Winning Percentage - Predicted Winning Percentage) x 162

So if the Over-Performance Index (OPI) is a positive number, that means that the team is over performing their prediction of games won. If the OPI is negative, then the team is under-performing relative to their prediction. This number is actually very helpful in judging the predictive standings: if a team has a high positive OPI, then that means that they are likely to start performing more poorly in reality, once "luck" or whatever other factors this represents factor out. If a team has a high negative OPI, then that means that the record of the team should improve. If the OPI varies between -2 and +2, the team you're seeing is basically the team you're getting.

In another post, I will explain the differences between my simple version and other predictive standing methods. Virtually all of them yield nearly the same results, so you can expect that my argument for my method will encompass Occam's Razor.

44 (Games To Go): New Format Table Test

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.605	.563	96	66	7
Boston	.579	.604	95	67	-4
NY Yankees	.529	.534	86	76	-1
Toronto	.512	.540	84	78	-5
Baltimore	.479	.488	78	84	-2
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.563	.566	91	71	0
Minnesota	.558	.535	89	73	4
Detroit	.483	.517	80	82	-5
Kansas City	.450	.415	71	91	6
Cleveland	.454	.508	76	86	-9
WEST
LA Angels	.630	.559	99	63	12
Texas	.504	.468	80	82	6
Oakland	.462	.504	77	85	-7
Seattle	.383	.423	64	98	-6
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.533	.564	88	74	-5
NY Mets	.533	.543	87	75	-2
Florida	.521	.482	83	79	6
Atlanta	.458	.508	76	86	-8
Washington	.364	.365	59	103	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.608	.634	100	62	-4
Milwaukee	.579	.546	92	70	5
St. Louis	.545	.533	88	74	2
Houston	.508	.479	81	81	5
Cincinnati	.438	.413	70	92	4
Pittsburgh	.458	.434	73	89	4
WEST
Arizona	.508	.518	83	79	-2
LA Dodgers	.508	.530	83	79	-4
Colorado	.443	.440	72	90	0
San Francisco	.420	.396	67	95	4
San Diego	.383	.396	63	99	-2

Before Today's games begin...

updated: 8.13.08 | 19:48