As It Stands: If the Season Started With the Rosters Today...

Welcome back, loyal readers! The winter is almost over, and we're close to the beginning of the baseball season (I know because the clock just moved forward one hour and daylight lasts until 7pm).

Every year I look at how the Win Shares (as described by Bill James, and calculated for the season by The Hardball Times) have changed via trades and free agent signings. Since three Win Shares equal one win, a team that gains 6 Win Shares by signing free agent would therefore win two more games than they would had they not signed anyone. I go one step further: since a team would likely replace a departing player with at least an average player, I prefer to use Hardball Times' Win Shares Above Bench, meaning that the player in question is worth that many more wins over a replacement average player.

Let's look at an example: the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. In the offseason, they've done the following, with their accompanying Win Shares gained/lost:

• Lost Pat Burrell (9 WSAB)
• Signed Raul Ibanez (11 WSAB)
• Signed Chan Ho Park (3 WSAB)
• a bunch of releases and signings that net to roughly zero

The Phillies adjusted Pythagorean Record last year was 91 wins. Subtract Burrell's 9 WSAB, add in Ibanez (11) and Park (3) which equals 14-9=5, divide by 3 to get the additional wins, in this case 2. Therefore, based on last year's Phillies' team doing roughly the same all else being equal would win two more games because of the roster changes. I followed this same basic process for all the teams, and the result is the following table:

AL
EAST	2008 WP	2008 P WP	P W+new	P L	Win Shares Net
Tampa Bay	.600	.572	99	63	2
Boston	.588	.600	98	64	2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	92	70	3
Toronto	.531	.573	82	80	-4
Baltimore	.421	.452	69	93	1
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	90	72	2
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	0
Cleveland	.500	.527	83	79	2
Detroit	.459	.482	76	86	1
Kansas City	.463	.441	74	88	0
WEST
LA Angels	.619	.545	98	64	-2
Oakland	.472	.470	81	81	4
Texas	.488	.466	73	89	-6
Seattle	.369	.402	56	106	-3
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	93	69	2
NY Mets	.550	.556	92	70	3
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	0
Atlanta	.444	.481	76	86	4
Washington	.371	.379	61	101	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	97	65	-1
Houston	.535	.481	85	77	-1
St. Louis	.525	.530	83	79	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	81	81	-9
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	0
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	0
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	1
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	0
Colorado	.463	.454	74	88	-1
San Francisco	.440	.413	74	88	3
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	1

The biggest winner in the AL is Oakland, although unfortunately those 4 games will likely only translate into a 2nd place finish. The biggest loser in that league will be the Rangers. The most interesting story will probably be the AL East, where it looks like Boston and Tampa Bay will again be neck and neck for the season, with the Yankees coming a close 3rd.

The Yankees are interesting: they added Teixeira (13), Sabathia (18), Burnett (8)--a whopping 39 WSAB (or roughly 13 wins above replacement players)! Unfortunately, though, they lost Mussina (13), Abreu (11), and Giambi (6), or 30/3 = 10 games, which you can see shows where they gain 3 games in the standings.

In the NL, the most improved team will be the Braves, but the biggest winner is the Cubs, on the strength of the Brewers being the biggest losers (9 games in the standings!). Losing Sheets (11), Sabathia (13), and on lesser level, Shouse (4) for a total of 28 WSAB lost.

Even with all the changes, the only race that looks like it would change from last year is that the Twins would beat the White Sox by two games.

Keep in mind, that this is using the stats from last season, and while the best predictor of the future is the past, that doesn't mean that it always ends up that way--look at the stock market from last year to this year for case in point.

If there is any more activity prior to the beginning of the season, I will duly note the changes.

Today's Win Probabilities for the Mets, Brewers, White Sox and Twins

It all comes down to one day, one game, to determine two divisional races.

The Mets have a 54% chance of winning their game; the Brewers only a 42% of winning theirs (based on log5, as explained yesterday). For the Brewers to win the Wild Card today, we multiply their odds of winning to the odds of the Mets losing, then vice versa for the Mets to win it:

Brewers, 42% x (1-54%) = 20%

Mets, 54% x (1-42%) = 31%

Tie Today, either by both winning or both losing, (42% x 54%) + ((1 - 42%) x (1 - 54%)) = 49%

As of now, the Mets and Marlins are tied 0-0 in the 3rd, while the Cubs have taken 1-0 lead in the first.

As for the Twins and White Sox, their situation is a little different. Two things have to happen for the White Sox to win the division--they have to win and the Twins lose, then play a one-game playoff. Whereas the Twins just need to hold serve:

Twins, 74% chance to win division (based on log5 win probability to beat the Royals)

White Sox, 70% x (1 - 74%) = 18% (Sox win AND Twins lose) just to tie for the NL Central

As of now, Sox lead 3-1 over Cleveland in the 3rd, and Twins/Royals 0-0.

Who do the odds favor to reach the post-season, then? Well, Twins and Mets have the better chances to outlast their opponents, though it will be much harder for the Mets.

And just a side note to Mets' fans--this team has lost Billy Wagner, John Maine and Ryan Church for extended portions of the season, long enough to have probably cost them the division. That they are even in this situation is a testament to the team (players and manager) in overcoming these obstacles. With those three playing the full season, they are about equal to the Cubs in performance.

UPDATE and OOOPS!: With the White Sox win today, they force their remaining game to be played--I hadn't taken that into account. So the Twins are done, and now have to wait until tomorrow to see if the tie happens or they win.

1: I Think It'll Be A Playoff Game For the Mets/Brewers; Twins Will Upset the White Sox

I had predicted a Subway Series back in June. Did the Carlos Quentin injury do in the Sox? How about the Contreras injury? In either case, it doesn't look good for the Sox, who have to win their last game and hope that the Royals sweep the Twins.

It's definitely looking like the Brewers and Mets will end up in a one-game playoff. Santana was rock-solid today, but it's the unpredictable Oliver Perez going tomorrow for the Mets, and the very predictable and wins except against the Cubs, CC Sabathia.

I love this game!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
x-Tampa Bay	.596	.571	97	65	4
y-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.572	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.425	.453	69	93	-4
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.540	.550	88	74	-2
Chicago Sox	.538	.547	87	75	-1
Cleveland	.503	.531	82	80	-4
Detroit	.463	.482	75	87	-3
Kansas City	.466	.443	75	87	4
WEST
*-LA Angels	.615	.542	100	62	12
Texas	.491	.468	79	83	4
Oakland	.469	.468	76	86	0
Seattle	.373	.405	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
x-Philadelphia	.565	.577	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.553	.557	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.501	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.485	72	90	-6
Washington	.369	.379	60	102	-2
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.606	.620	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.541	90	72	2
Houston	.531	.477	86	76	9
St. Louis	.528	.532	86	76	-1
Cincinnati	.460	.440	74	88	3
Pittsburgh	.410	.405	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.540	85	77	-3
Arizona	.503	.509	82	80	-1
Colorado	.460	.453	74	88	1
San Francisco	.441	.414	71	91	4
San Diego	.391	.413	63	99	-4

Fun With Probabilities: Brewers/Twins have best shot at postseason

I'm sure every one of my 34 regular readers (according to Google Analytics!) went immediately to their trusty Texas Instruments TI-35 calculators and used my probabilities from yesterdays' posts to calculate overall odds of making the post season for their favorite teams.

You mean you didn't?

OK, then, let's take a look from the spreadsheet. The beauty of probabilities, statistically speaking is that they can be added, subtracted and multiplied to come up with odds of combinations and odds of mutual exclusivity, among the many other possibilities. Here, we'll really look at the combinatorial property.

Before I delve into this, I want to point out that the best description of what I'm doing comes from DiamondMind Baseball. I first posted my playoff version of Bill James Log5 theorem in 2005. What I will be doing in the playoffs is exactly what they describe. You can also find my original description on BigShouldersSports, where I used to occasionally contribute. In essence, I take the home team's winning percentage at home vs. the away teams road winning percentage, all using the pythagorean expectations formula as used during the season, to compute a probability of victory in each game of the series. I then use the combinatorial mathematics to come up with the odds of sweeping, winning two games, or winning just one for each team. As you will see in the playoffs, this also will take into account all five or seven games.

For now, though, we've already had one game, so the odds have changed a little. Looking at the numbers for the Brewers, they have a 49% chance of beating the Cubs twice (since they won last night). The Mets have only a 29% chance of winning two games. The Brewers also have a 33% of winning one game, Mets have a 50% of doing so, facing easier competition. If both teams win one game or both teams win two games, then they end up tied, so we add up both of those probabilities for each team and multiply to get the odds of this happening, which is 64%.

But unfortunately, for the Mets, because they lost yesterday, they do not have the ability to sweep their series and will therefore have to hope that the Brewers will lose at least one game. Otherwise, the chances of the Brewers winning the Wild Card are 59% (odds of sweeping plus odds of winning two games plus odds of winning one game while the Mets lose two plus Mets losing one plus Mets being swept). Those same odds in reverse, i.e. for the Mets to win the WC, are 41%.

If you're wondering why some of those numbers don't total one hundred, it's because these possibilities are mutually exclusive, meaning they exist on their own (this is something I'm sure my regular visitors already know, but I include it in case I get some new visitors that might not). That is not true, though, for the Mets probability (P) of winning, that is exactly 41% because it is calculated 100% (Mets OR Brewers win P) minus 59% (Brewers win P).

Calculating the same for the White Sox and Twins, we get, respectively, 43% and 57%. Best way to check a probability is to do a gut-level check: Twins are playing the Royals, who are the worst team in the league, whereas the Sox are playing the Indians, which are in third place in the division. So the Sox have a tougher schedule.

2: Dead Heat in the AL Central; Brewers Back In the Driver's Seat

Nothing I can add beyond the title--will be interesting.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.572	97	65	5
z-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.531	.573	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.421	.452	68	94	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	88	74	-1
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.527	81	81	-4
Detroit	.459	.482	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.463	.441	75	87	3
WEST
*-LA Angels	.619	.545	100	62	12
Texas	.488	.466	79	83	3
Oakland	.472	.470	76	86	0
Seattle	.369	.402	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.550	.556	89	73	-1
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	3
Atlanta	.444	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.371	.379	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	90	72	2
Houston	.535	.481	86	76	9
St. Louis	.525	.530	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	3
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	-3
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.463	.454	75	87	1
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	-4

Updated, and Now, AL, too

Updated probabilities, plus I've finally included the White Sox and Twins. So how does it look for our finalists, some of whom will go home with consolation prizes (a higher draft pick next summer?).

Important places to look below: the Brewers have an 18% chance to sweep the Cubs, but even if they win only two, their chances of winning two now is almost 50/50. That is in stark contrast to the Mets who have only a 50/50 chance of winning ONE game. The Phillies have practically clinched, so they're not even in the equation anymore. If the Brewers win one more game, that will probably knock the Mets off (sorry, Mets fans).

I think I have to say sorry to White Sox fans also: they have to win the next two games to guarantee a tie, whereas the Twins, winning two games, will win the division. In the immortal words of The Jam, "Here Comes The Weekend"!

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	0.0%	33.1%	48.9%
Brewers	18.1%	48.9%	33.1%
Phillies	45.4%	43.9%	10.6%
Nationals	0.0%	10.6%	43.9%
Mets	0.0%	28.6%	49.8%
Marlins	21.6%	49.8%	28.6%
White Sox	0.0%	48.2%	42.4%
Indians	9.3%	42.4%	48.2%
Twins	0.0%	55.2%	38.2%
KC	6.6%	38.2%	55.2%

Final Weekend: National League Version

The table below is the Log5 probability (I will explain this in a following post) of the possible results in this weekends NL games with Playoff implications. The three columns are probability of a sweep for each team, for getting two wins, and getting one win.

The Brewers and Mets need to win 2 games and the Mets have the best chance of doing that. The numbers absolutely favor the Phillies winning at least one game and very likely two, and the Mets are second most likely to win. Of course, will the Cubs bring their A-Team this weekend? Given what I saw last night in Shea Stadium, they probably won't. Of course, the B-Team sure didn't disappoint too badly.

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	19.3%	42.3%	30.9%
Brewers	7.5%	30.9%	42.3%
Phillies	30.6%	44.4%	21.5%
Nationals	3.5%	21.5%	44.4%
Mets	15.2%	39.8%	34.8%
Marlins	10.1%	34.8%	39.8%

Ed note: My original post incorrectly showed the Cubs as the home team, and they are in fact the visiting team in Milwaukee. The numbers changed slightly.

3: Twins' Dome Sweeps the Sox Out of First, Mets/Brewers Tied--2 games for Any One of Them Will Put Them in the Playoffs

The Mets great game tonight keeps them in contention with the Brewers after their extra inning affair. Boy--the Pirates are the tonic for what ails you in the NL. And the Twins now have the upper hand over the White Sox. This is going to be a great weekend for baseball!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.604	.574	98	64	5
z-Boston	.591	.609	96	66	-3
NY Yankees	.547	.533	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.571	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.547	.557	89	73	-2
Chicago Sox	.544	.554	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.497	.526	81	81	-5
Detroit	.456	.480	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.620	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.367	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.553	.559	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.608	.622	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.542	90	72	2
Houston	.532	.480	86	76	8
St. Louis	.522	.529	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.465	.442	75	87	4
Pittsburgh	.409	.403	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.525	.542	85	77	-3
Arizona	.497	.506	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.455	75	87	2
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.386	.412	63	99	-4

4: White Sox Need to Win Two More Games; One-Game Playoff Between Mets & Brewers?

And it would help if they win one of those tomorrow against the Twins or there will be no chance for a Subway Series this year, just in time for the 102nd anniversary of the first one (Cubs vs. Sox in 1906).

And interestingly, the Phillies should still win the NL East, and it looks like a tie now between the Brewers and hapless Mets (subject of a special post from the game tomorrow at Shea Stadium). The Cubs are practically in the weird position to pick their opponent for the NLCS.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.608	.576	98	64	5
z-Boston	.589	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.551	.537	89	73	2
Toronto	.525	.567	85	77	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.548	.555	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.544	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.529	81	81	-5
Detroit	.452	.479	73	89	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.611	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.551	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.529	.479	85	77	8
St. Louis	.519	.523	84	78	-1
Cincinnati	.468	.443	76	86	4
Pittsburgh	.411	.405	67	95	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.513	81	81	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

5: All the Phillies Met at a Brewer-y; White Sox Have Twins?

There's really only one race in the NL, but with two parts: Phillies over Mets, Mets over Brewers. I think the Brewers are going to come up short based on who they have to play over the weekend, but it should still be interesting.

In the AL, it's just one race, Sox vs. Twins. The Sox should be able to eke it out, but the Twins are not going down easy. This closeness is probably the one game of difference Carlos Quentin's injury has wrought.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.605	.573	98	64	5
z-Boston	.586	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.548	.534	89	73	2
Toronto	.529	.570	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.427	.456	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.551	.556	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.541	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.503	.530	82	80	-4
Detroit	.455	.483	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.456	.431	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.580	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.554	.562	90	72	-1
Florida	.516	.495	83	79	3
Atlanta	.443	.477	72	90	-6
Washington	.376	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.609	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.548	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.475	85	77	8
St. Louis	.516	.522	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.414	.406	67	95	1
Cincinnati	.471	.446	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.503	.514	82	80	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

6: The Mets? Ouch--But They'll, uh, Make It!

The White Sox, the Dodgers, and the Mets only need to win two more games to effectively clinch the playoffs. I still have egg on my face from making that call for the Mets last year, but I'm sure they'll be able to do it given their stats.

The Red Sox and Phillies will both effectively clinch with one more win, but barring a monstrous collapse, both will be in the playoffs. Actually, in a preview of those, Boston is by far the scariest team to face, and the Angels do have something to worry about. In this table (without my log5 win probability calculated completely, yet), note that the Sox are underperforming by 4 games, while the Angels are OVERperforming by 11. That's an amazing number and one that I have not seen in a first place team at the end of the season in the 5 years I've been doing this. Is it the Angels' great relief, namely Frankie K? Great managing? I don't know, but if I was a betting man, I would put money on Boston to take them out in the first round.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.571	97	65	5
Boston	.583	.606	95	67	-4
NY Yankees	.545	.533	88	74	2
Toronto	.532	.572	86	76	-6
Baltimore	.432	.459	70	92	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.538	.552	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.506	.531	82	80	-4
Kansas City	.452	.428	73	89	4
Detroit	.458	.486	74	88	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.622	.554	100	62	11
Oakland	.481	.480	78	84	0
Texas	.478	.453	77	85	4
Seattle	.365	.397	59	103	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.567	.581	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.439	.476	71	91	-6
Washington	.372	.378	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.613	.626	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.545	.537	88	74	1
Houston	.529	.476	85	77	9
St. Louis	.513	.520	83	79	-1
Pittsburgh	.417	.407	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.468	.445	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.530	84	78	-2
Arizona	.506	.517	82	80	-2
Colorado	.455	.443	74	88	2
San Francisco	.449	.422	73	89	4
San Diego	.391	.422	64	98	-5

8: Can the White Sox Hold On? Will The Phillies Do To The Brewers This Year What They Did To The Mets Last Year?

With the Twins not able to shake the Rays, they are ceding the AL Central to the White Sox. The Dodgers look to be holding off the Diamondbacks. And with the Brewers' pitiful slide the last two weeks, Both the Mets and the Phillies will be making the Playoffs.

This last actually might not be good for the Cubs, because they have to play a much better team the NL Worst's Dodgers to advance to the next round, either the Mets or Phillies. On the other hand, none of the teams would have fared very well with the Cubs' home advantage.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.599	.569	97	65	5
Boston	.584	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.542	.530	88	74	2
Toronto	.535	.574	87	75	-6
Baltimore	.438	.462	71	91	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.556	.561	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.539	.554	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.497	.525	81	81	-5
Kansas City	.448	.424	72	90	4
Detroit	.467	.493	76	86	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.614	.549	99	63	11
Texas	.487	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.474	.478	77	85	-1
Seattle	.370	.398	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.562	.565	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.558	.576	91	71	-3
Florida	.529	.503	86	76	4
Atlanta	.435	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.377	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
x-Chicago Cubs	.608	.622	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.542	.532	88	74	2
Houston	.529	.474	85	77	9
St. Louis	.519	.525	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.416	.407	67	95	1
Cincinnati	.468	.448	76	86	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.529	84	78	-2
Arizona	.497	.507	81	81	-2
Colorado	.461	.450	75	87	2
San Francisco	.448	.423	72	90	4
San Diego	.383	.415	62	100	-5

9: Too Close To Call, or Too Soon To Call?

Well, it's pretty obvious that 3 races are too soon to call, but we know what will happen (Rays, Red Sox, White Sox will secure playoff spots, in addition to the official winner of the AL West). The Dodgers still have a possibility of blowing it, so it's too close to call, and even though the division title is too close to call, both the Mets and the Phillies will make the playoffs, with the Brewers' freefall.

My original prediction, back in June, was a Cubs vs. White Sox World Series. As of now, it could still happen. In effect, to effectively clinch the division, the Sox will have to win 3 more games with the Twins predicted to win 87 (they already have 85)

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.599	.569	97	65	5
Boston	.588	.608	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.539	.530	87	75	1
Toronto	.532	.573	87	75	-7
Baltimore	.441	.463	72	90	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.556	.561	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.539	.554	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.497	.525	81	81	-5
Detroit	.467	.493	76	86	-4
Kansas City	.448	.424	72	90	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.614	.549	99	63	11
Texas	.487	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.471	.477	76	86	-1
Seattle	.373	.398	61	101	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.562	.565	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.558	.576	91	71	-3
Florida	.529	.503	86	76	4
Atlanta	.435	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.377	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.605	.622	98	64	-3
Milwaukee	.545	.533	88	74	2
Houston	.529	.474	85	77	9
St. Louis	.523	.526	85	77	0
Cincinnati	.464	.447	75	87	3
Pittsburgh	.416	.407	67	95	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.529	84	78	-2
Arizona	.497	.507	81	81	-2
Colorado	.461	.450	75	87	2
San Francisco	.448	.423	72	90	4
San Diego	.383	.415	62	100	-5

10: Picture is getting clearer...

OK, what do you want me to say? Will Boston beat Tampa Bay? Well it's very likely considering the Rays are way overperforming. But they've been doing so all year, so what else is new--maybe this is their level.

It really doesn't matter, though, because the Red Sox will still be in the playoffs. The Sox of a paler persuasion should be able to hold off the Gemini, but it is still a tossup, really. Ozzie's crew isn't overperforming like the past, but the Twins are underperforming considerably, so some changes can still occur.

For my buds in NYC, I hope the Mets make it, but it does appear to be going down to the wire. And Torre's trolley Dodgers (where there are none) will most likely make the playoffs.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.596	.562	96	66	6
Boston	.586	.608	95	67	-4
Toronto	.536	.574	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.536	.529	87	75	1
Baltimore	.444	.463	72	90	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.553	.558	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.542	.561	88	74	-3
Cleveland	.493	.525	80	82	-5
Detroit	.470	.494	76	86	-4
Kansas City	.451	.427	73	89	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.612	.548	98	64	10
Texas	.490	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.467	.475	76	86	-1
Seattle	.375	.399	61	101	-4
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.562	.582	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Florida	.526	.499	85	77	4
Atlanta	.438	.479	71	91	-7
Washington	.379	.385	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.609	.628	99	63	-3
Milwaukee	.549	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.471	85	77	9
St. Louis	.520	.522	84	78	0
Cincinnati	.461	.440	74	88	3
Pittsburgh	.418	.409	68	94	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.523	.534	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.458	.449	74	88	1
San Francisco	.444	.418	72	90	4
San Diego	.379	.410	62	100	-5

11: Cubs, Red Sox, Rays as good as clinched, White Sox and Dodgers should do so also; Mets, Phillies, and Brewers Still a Tossup

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.597	.560	96	66	6
Boston	.589	.614	96	66	-4
Toronto	.530	.573	86	76	-7
NY Yankees	.530	.522	86	76	1
Baltimore	.450	.464	73	89	-2
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.560	.566	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.543	.562	88	74	-3
Cleveland	.490	.524	80	82	-5
Detroit	.467	.485	76	86	-3
Kansas City	.444	.415	72	90	5
WEST
x-LA Angels	.613	.548	99	63	11
Texas	.493	.464	80	82	5
Oakland	.467	.476	76	86	-1
Seattle	.380	.408	62	100	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.556	.578	90	72	-4
NY Mets	.553	.559	90	72	-1
Florida	.520	.485	84	78	6
Atlanta	.444	.483	72	90	-6
Washington	.384	.388	62	100	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.611	.632	99	63	-3
Milwaukee	.550	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.533	.485	86	76	8
St. Louis	.520	.523	84	78	-1
Cincinnati	.460	.438	74	88	4
Pittsburgh	.417	.404	67	95	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.523	.540	85	77	-3
Arizona	.493	.507	80	82	-2
Colorado	.454	.448	73	89	1
San Francisco	.450	.418	73	89	5
San Diego	.382	.411	62	100	-5