Winning the First Game on the Road Gives Huge Boost to Win Probability for Phillies

WS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	30%	0%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	70%	16%

Taking away the home-field advantage from the Rays puts the Phillies in position to do what they could not in 1993: win the World Series. Although they do have 70% chance of winning now, the Rays still have a 60% chance of winning Game 2, which could swing things back to at least toss-up status.

Phillies Are No Slouches--Rays Have a Tough Series Even With Home Advantage

Back when the Cubs were the team to beat, I always thought the Phillies would present the toughest challenge. I should have known better that, once October rolls around, even a team made up of Florida Seniors could beat them. One thing I also knew, is that both Boston or Tampa Bay were better than any NL team. So if we look at the numbers alone, sans context, the World Series will be a toss-up, with the slight advantage going to the Phillies, based on their Road record particularly. 

The big caveat in this, though, is that the Phils play in the National League which is not as strong a league as the AL, and particularly not as strong as the survivor of the AL East, which is a beast (and I will stop the rhyme there).

Whoever wins the first game will certainly get the edge, because then, in either case, that winner will hold a 70% chance of taking the Series.

WS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	5%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	51%	7%

Home for Three

Rays are back in it, as are the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the second best winning percentage at home, Red Sox have the best. I bet LA will win at least one more home game. The Red Sox could very well sweep at home (hence the great chance of winning still, even though the series is 1-1).

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	41%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	59%	0%
NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	72%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	28%	0%

According to Hoyle...

Odds for the Phillies making it to the Series have gone up sharply with their two victories, and winning the first game has made a world (series) of difference for the Red Sox, who now are most likely to win the series. The Dodgers home winning percentage probably means that they should be able to win at least one at home, but the Phillies are no slouches on the road.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	30%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	70%	16%
NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	82%	18%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	18%	0%

Who Will Be Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?

Rays/Red Sox is a toss-up--couldn't be a closer matchup. I thought at the beginning of the year that the Red Sox were the best team in the majors and there's no reason to change my mind now. My initial (though un-posted) prediction of the World Series was BoSox over the Cubs. Insert lamentation here. Or just insert Phillies.

This is looking kind of like last year, where I had the Cubs beating Arizona, and Phillies beating the Rockies. Then I had Arizona beating the Rockies--I wasn't right until I finally had the Red Sox over the Rockies. But the numbers don't lie: the Phils are better than the commuter-train-dodgers (sorry, that's bad). If the Dodgers can demoralize the Phillies by taking two in the City of Brothelly Love, they can pull off an upset again.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	19%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	51%	13%
NLCS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	66%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	34%	10%

Die Another Day

The Angels and White Sox live to fight another day and keep slim hopes alive: both of them have the exact same odds to overcome, a 1 in 5 chance of winning their ALDS series. And in case you so enjoyed my anatomy of a stat, here's another one. What are the chances of the White Sox facing the Angels in the ALCS?

1/5 x 1/5 (each is the chance that they will make it to the next round) = 1/25 or 1 in 25 chances would this happen. I've seen worse odds...

Congratulations to the LA Party Poopers, I mean Dodgers, and the Phillies.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	20%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	80%	0%
Rays	0.628	0.515	80%	0%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	20%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	0%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	100%	100%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	100%	0%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	0%	0%

Early Bleakness of Winter Descending on Chicago and Milwaukee...

...Yes, and dramatically so. Of all the teams down 2-0, the Cubs have the slightly better chance of being able to pull through than the others, with their Southside rivals being next in line (especially because of the two home games, potentially, that they could play). In today's games, specifically, the Cubs have a 45% chance of winning and the Brewers have a 42% chance of winning. If they pull it off, they could change some odds for the better. But yes, it looks bleak now.

As for the weather forecast in Southern California, particularly Anaheim way, there's a 92% chance of anomie and despair, though there is also a 99% chance of clear skies.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	8%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	92%	60%
Rays	0.628	0.515	87%	37%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	13%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	14%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	86%	55%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	86%	42%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	14%	0%

Anatomy of a Baseball Stat: Explaining Win Probability

Since many of you might not read Bill James' Baseball Manifestos, I thought I would show you how arrive at the numbers that I've been showing as the probability of victory for any given playoff team. We will draw upon two formulas from Bill James, one from his 1981 Baseball Abstract and the other from his 1984 Baseball Abstract.

First, let's look at his Pythagorean Win Expectancy "theorem". I use quotes because even though he called it that, he never thought that it quite stood the test of an actual mathematical theorem. Baseball, at it's most basic, yet most accurate, is a game whose outcome is determined by how many runs the teams score. This has two four points: runs scored by both teams and runs given up by both teams. The obvious: the team with more runs after 9 innings wins. So, he combined the idea of the pythagorean theorem that you all probably still remember (and aren't you glad that's so--I'm sure you've used it to determine the long side of a right triangle given the two short sides recently!): a² + b² = c²

Now this has led to countless important discoveries, not the least of which couldn't have happened without it, Algebra and Trigonometry. So James' basic idea was that there was some correlation between runs scored, and runs given up, and somehow coming up with wins. I don't recall the details now (I first came across this in the late '80s). But the formula that he came up with (which I've detailed elsewhere before) is:

P WP = R² / R² + RA²

P WP = Predicted Winning Percentage

R = Runs Scored (batting)

RA = Runs Given Up (pitching)

So as an example, let's compute this for the Cubs this season. Cubs scored 854 and gave up 668 runs.

P WP = 854² / 854² + 668² = .620

This is the number that was used to compute the predictive standings. But for the Playoffs, I get more granular, since the games encompass playing 3 at home and 2 on the road. For that, I consult ESPN, but this time, get their extended team stats and sort by home and away runs/runs-against.

So the Cubs then end up at:

Home: P WP = 854² / 454² + 339² = .649

Away: P WP = 854² / 401² + 332² = .563

So this is where we want to see what their chances of winning a home game and winning an away game are against their opponent, the LA Dodgers. This is when we bring in James' second discovery which he called Log5 probability (I won't go into the details of the name, that's totally straining your staying power!). Log5 allows you to take the winning percentage of any team, multiply it by their opponent, and come up with a probability of victory (or defeat, as the case might be). Now, because actual winning percentage can sometimes be a function of luck or other external factors, I use the pythagorean or predicted winning percentage.

To do this, I also need the same information for the opposing team, in this case the Dodgers. I'll use the same method and come up with their home and away winning percentages, which are .637 and .454, respectively. So the formula will then look like this:

One Game Win Probability (Cubs home advantage)

 = CHPWP - (CHPWP x LAAPWP) / CHPWP + LAAPWP - (2 x LAAPWP x CHPWP) where

CHPWP = Cubs Home Predicted Winning Percentage

LAAPWP = Dodgers Away Predicted Winning Percentage

With the numbers just given, the formula and result look like this:

Cubs Win Probability = .649 x .454 / .649 + .454 - (2 x .454 x .649) = .690 or 69%

LA Dodgers Win Probability = 1 - Cubs Win Probability = .310 or 31%

The next step is the one I outlined briefly early this week and referenced in the Diamond Mind article of Monday's post, where you assemble all the potential probabilities of the different scenarios in a 5-game series: sweep 3, lose first and win next 3, lose first 2 win next 3, etc. Each one of these is associated with a probability. So, as an example, how do we calculate the probability of a 3-game sweep for these two teams? We simply use the multiplicative property of probabilities. The Cubs have a probability of winning each of the first two home games of .690. The already calculated chance following the above Log5 method for the Away games are .454. The formula and result:

Probability of 3-game sweep for Cubs = .690 x .690 x .454 = 22%

For the Dodgers, the chance of a sweep is only 5%. But since the Cubs lost the two games at home, the chance of a sweep for the Dodgers went up:

Probability of Dodgers Sweep with two victories = 1.00 x 1.00 x .546 = 55% 

(1.00 represents a victory or probability of 100% of winning that game which we know they won)

Hopefully, this has been properly explained. Now to go back to the Red Sox vs. Angels game!

Mirage in Chicago

I'm sorry for any Red Sox, or Cleveland, Phillies, or San Francisco fan out there, but there is no worse fan that one can be than of the Cursed Cubs. They lose when they're predicted to lose, and they lose when they're predicted to win. In short, all they really do is lose. It's not a curse--that is ridiculous. But the negativity surrounding this team is palpable: fans don't cheer when they're behind, the players take on all the expectations of finally being "the one" that they inevitably press and try too hard, and inevitably as well, lose. Game after game. Home field advantage or not, they lose. As the game goes on, rather than trying to calm down and get good at-bats, they swing at pitches in the dirt like single-A minor leaguers. Pitchers overpitch and end up walking everyone they face. If you're a Cubs fan, that is the most pathetic thing to be. In the Cubs' sabermetric world, the usual saying is the same, except let me put it in mathematical notation: Wait 'til Next Year = Cubs + October + (Win Expectancy > 0) = ∞ / 0

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	24%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	76%	30%
Rays	0.628	0.515	74%	25%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	26%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	14%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	86%	17%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	86%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	14%	0%

Rays and Red Sox Increase Their Odds, Things Look Bad For Angels and White Sox

The Angels and the White Sox have basically a 1 in 4 chance of making it to the ALCS. Looks like I might not be able to spin out my long-awaited probability of the Cubs meeting the White Sox in the World Series.

The Phillies are playing right now and beating Sabathia badly. The question on the Hot Stove circuit will certainly be "Is it too many starts on 3-days rest down the stretch or is he just not a 'clutch' or capable playoff pitcher?" Last year in the playoffs, his ERA was 9.00...

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	24%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	76%	30%
Rays	0.628	0.515	74%	25%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	26%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	42%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	58%	17%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	69%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	31%	0%

2 Games in the Can, Two Teams with a Better Chance to Win...

Even though the Cubs lost their first game, they still have a 42% chance to win the series, and that's expecting more losses. If the Cubs win the next one, it becomes a slightly better than 50/50 proposition.

The Phillies have taken a commanding position over the Brewers, but we'll certainly see what happens after Sabathia pitches.

Stay tuned for Red Sox-Angels...

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	43%	10%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	57%	15%
Rays	0.628	0.515	61%	17%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	39%	6%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	42%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	58%	17%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	69%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	31%	0%