Home for Three

Rays are back in it, as are the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the second best winning percentage at home, Red Sox have the best. I bet LA will win at least one more home game. The Red Sox could very well sweep at home (hence the great chance of winning still, even though the series is 1-1).

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	41%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	59%	0%
NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	72%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	28%	0%

According to Hoyle...

Odds for the Phillies making it to the Series have gone up sharply with their two victories, and winning the first game has made a world (series) of difference for the Red Sox, who now are most likely to win the series. The Dodgers home winning percentage probably means that they should be able to win at least one at home, but the Phillies are no slouches on the road.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	30%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	70%	16%
NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	82%	18%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	18%	0%

Who Will Be Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?

Rays/Red Sox is a toss-up--couldn't be a closer matchup. I thought at the beginning of the year that the Red Sox were the best team in the majors and there's no reason to change my mind now. My initial (though un-posted) prediction of the World Series was BoSox over the Cubs. Insert lamentation here. Or just insert Phillies.

This is looking kind of like last year, where I had the Cubs beating Arizona, and Phillies beating the Rockies. Then I had Arizona beating the Rockies--I wasn't right until I finally had the Red Sox over the Rockies. But the numbers don't lie: the Phils are better than the commuter-train-dodgers (sorry, that's bad). If the Dodgers can demoralize the Phillies by taking two in the City of Brothelly Love, they can pull off an upset again.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	19%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	51%	13%
NLCS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	66%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	34%	10%

Die Another Day

The Angels and White Sox live to fight another day and keep slim hopes alive: both of them have the exact same odds to overcome, a 1 in 5 chance of winning their ALDS series. And in case you so enjoyed my anatomy of a stat, here's another one. What are the chances of the White Sox facing the Angels in the ALCS?

1/5 x 1/5 (each is the chance that they will make it to the next round) = 1/25 or 1 in 25 chances would this happen. I've seen worse odds...

Congratulations to the LA Party Poopers, I mean Dodgers, and the Phillies.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	20%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	80%	0%
Rays	0.628	0.515	80%	0%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	20%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	0%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	100%	100%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	100%	0%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	0%	0%

Rays and Red Sox Increase Their Odds, Things Look Bad For Angels and White Sox

The Angels and the White Sox have basically a 1 in 4 chance of making it to the ALCS. Looks like I might not be able to spin out my long-awaited probability of the Cubs meeting the White Sox in the World Series.

The Phillies are playing right now and beating Sabathia badly. The question on the Hot Stove circuit will certainly be "Is it too many starts on 3-days rest down the stretch or is he just not a 'clutch' or capable playoff pitcher?" Last year in the playoffs, his ERA was 9.00...

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	24%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	76%	30%
Rays	0.628	0.515	74%	25%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	26%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	42%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	58%	17%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	69%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	31%	0%

I Guess That Answer's Last Night's Question; Now Updated Playoff Odds

No real changes except that we now have the actual contestants and final runs/runs against. Basically, I still think the Red Sox will beat the Angels (57% chance to do so); Rays will beat the White Sox (61%--Sorry, Chicago, no subway series); Cubs will beat the Dodgers (68%); and even though the Phillies have a 53% chance to beat the Brewers, that is really a toss-up.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	43%	10%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	57%	15%
Rays	0.628	0.515	61%	17%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	39%	6%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	68%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	32%	5%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	53%	14%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	47%	10%

And if each of the teams predicted to lose the series wins the first game, it changes the odds to plus 60% for all of those teams, except one, the Cubs. They would no longer be favored, but the odds would be just under 50/50 for them to pull it out anyway.

White Sox Vs. Twins in One-Game Playoff Tomorrow--Who Wins?

Based on the fact that White Sox are at home tomorrow, where they sport a lofty 0.643 pythagorean winning percentage, and that the Twins will bring their less-than-stellar 0.450 pythagorean road winning percentage, the Sox have a 69% chance of facing the Rays on Thursday, using the log5 win probability.

White Sox Have Good Chance to Tie for the NL Central Title Tomorrow

The White Sox have a 67% chance of beating the Tigers tomorrow and taking this into a Tuesday one-game playoff with the Twins. Very cool.

Today's Win Probabilities for the Mets, Brewers, White Sox and Twins

It all comes down to one day, one game, to determine two divisional races.

The Mets have a 54% chance of winning their game; the Brewers only a 42% of winning theirs (based on log5, as explained yesterday). For the Brewers to win the Wild Card today, we multiply their odds of winning to the odds of the Mets losing, then vice versa for the Mets to win it:

Brewers, 42% x (1-54%) = 20%

Mets, 54% x (1-42%) = 31%

Tie Today, either by both winning or both losing, (42% x 54%) + ((1 - 42%) x (1 - 54%)) = 49%

As of now, the Mets and Marlins are tied 0-0 in the 3rd, while the Cubs have taken 1-0 lead in the first.

As for the Twins and White Sox, their situation is a little different. Two things have to happen for the White Sox to win the division--they have to win and the Twins lose, then play a one-game playoff. Whereas the Twins just need to hold serve:

Twins, 74% chance to win division (based on log5 win probability to beat the Royals)

White Sox, 70% x (1 - 74%) = 18% (Sox win AND Twins lose) just to tie for the NL Central

As of now, Sox lead 3-1 over Cleveland in the 3rd, and Twins/Royals 0-0.

Who do the odds favor to reach the post-season, then? Well, Twins and Mets have the better chances to outlast their opponents, though it will be much harder for the Mets.

And just a side note to Mets' fans--this team has lost Billy Wagner, John Maine and Ryan Church for extended portions of the season, long enough to have probably cost them the division. That they are even in this situation is a testament to the team (players and manager) in overcoming these obstacles. With those three playing the full season, they are about equal to the Cubs in performance.

UPDATE and OOOPS!: With the White Sox win today, they force their remaining game to be played--I hadn't taken that into account. So the Twins are done, and now have to wait until tomorrow to see if the tie happens or they win.

1: I Think It'll Be A Playoff Game For the Mets/Brewers; Twins Will Upset the White Sox

I had predicted a Subway Series back in June. Did the Carlos Quentin injury do in the Sox? How about the Contreras injury? In either case, it doesn't look good for the Sox, who have to win their last game and hope that the Royals sweep the Twins.

It's definitely looking like the Brewers and Mets will end up in a one-game playoff. Santana was rock-solid today, but it's the unpredictable Oliver Perez going tomorrow for the Mets, and the very predictable and wins except against the Cubs, CC Sabathia.

I love this game!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
x-Tampa Bay	.596	.571	97	65	4
y-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.572	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.425	.453	69	93	-4
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.540	.550	88	74	-2
Chicago Sox	.538	.547	87	75	-1
Cleveland	.503	.531	82	80	-4
Detroit	.463	.482	75	87	-3
Kansas City	.466	.443	75	87	4
WEST
*-LA Angels	.615	.542	100	62	12
Texas	.491	.468	79	83	4
Oakland	.469	.468	76	86	0
Seattle	.373	.405	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
x-Philadelphia	.565	.577	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.553	.557	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.501	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.485	72	90	-6
Washington	.369	.379	60	102	-2
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.606	.620	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.541	90	72	2
Houston	.531	.477	86	76	9
St. Louis	.528	.532	86	76	-1
Cincinnati	.460	.440	74	88	3
Pittsburgh	.410	.405	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.540	85	77	-3
Arizona	.503	.509	82	80	-1
Colorado	.460	.453	74	88	1
San Francisco	.441	.414	71	91	4
San Diego	.391	.413	63	99	-4

2: Dead Heat in the AL Central; Brewers Back In the Driver's Seat

Nothing I can add beyond the title--will be interesting.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.572	97	65	5
z-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.531	.573	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.421	.452	68	94	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	88	74	-1
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.527	81	81	-4
Detroit	.459	.482	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.463	.441	75	87	3
WEST
*-LA Angels	.619	.545	100	62	12
Texas	.488	.466	79	83	3
Oakland	.472	.470	76	86	0
Seattle	.369	.402	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.550	.556	89	73	-1
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	3
Atlanta	.444	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.371	.379	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	90	72	2
Houston	.535	.481	86	76	9
St. Louis	.525	.530	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	3
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	-3
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.463	.454	75	87	1
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	-4

Updated, and Now, AL, too

Updated probabilities, plus I've finally included the White Sox and Twins. So how does it look for our finalists, some of whom will go home with consolation prizes (a higher draft pick next summer?).

Important places to look below: the Brewers have an 18% chance to sweep the Cubs, but even if they win only two, their chances of winning two now is almost 50/50. That is in stark contrast to the Mets who have only a 50/50 chance of winning ONE game. The Phillies have practically clinched, so they're not even in the equation anymore. If the Brewers win one more game, that will probably knock the Mets off (sorry, Mets fans).

I think I have to say sorry to White Sox fans also: they have to win the next two games to guarantee a tie, whereas the Twins, winning two games, will win the division. In the immortal words of The Jam, "Here Comes The Weekend"!

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	0.0%	33.1%	48.9%
Brewers	18.1%	48.9%	33.1%
Phillies	45.4%	43.9%	10.6%
Nationals	0.0%	10.6%	43.9%
Mets	0.0%	28.6%	49.8%
Marlins	21.6%	49.8%	28.6%
White Sox	0.0%	48.2%	42.4%
Indians	9.3%	42.4%	48.2%
Twins	0.0%	55.2%	38.2%
KC	6.6%	38.2%	55.2%

5: All the Phillies Met at a Brewer-y; White Sox Have Twins?

There's really only one race in the NL, but with two parts: Phillies over Mets, Mets over Brewers. I think the Brewers are going to come up short based on who they have to play over the weekend, but it should still be interesting.

In the AL, it's just one race, Sox vs. Twins. The Sox should be able to eke it out, but the Twins are not going down easy. This closeness is probably the one game of difference Carlos Quentin's injury has wrought.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.605	.573	98	64	5
z-Boston	.586	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.548	.534	89	73	2
Toronto	.529	.570	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.427	.456	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.551	.556	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.541	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.503	.530	82	80	-4
Detroit	.455	.483	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.456	.431	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.580	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.554	.562	90	72	-1
Florida	.516	.495	83	79	3
Atlanta	.443	.477	72	90	-6
Washington	.376	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.609	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.548	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.475	85	77	8
St. Louis	.516	.522	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.414	.406	67	95	1
Cincinnati	.471	.446	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.503	.514	82	80	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

6: The Mets? Ouch--But They'll, uh, Make It!

The White Sox, the Dodgers, and the Mets only need to win two more games to effectively clinch the playoffs. I still have egg on my face from making that call for the Mets last year, but I'm sure they'll be able to do it given their stats.

The Red Sox and Phillies will both effectively clinch with one more win, but barring a monstrous collapse, both will be in the playoffs. Actually, in a preview of those, Boston is by far the scariest team to face, and the Angels do have something to worry about. In this table (without my log5 win probability calculated completely, yet), note that the Sox are underperforming by 4 games, while the Angels are OVERperforming by 11. That's an amazing number and one that I have not seen in a first place team at the end of the season in the 5 years I've been doing this. Is it the Angels' great relief, namely Frankie K? Great managing? I don't know, but if I was a betting man, I would put money on Boston to take them out in the first round.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.571	97	65	5
Boston	.583	.606	95	67	-4
NY Yankees	.545	.533	88	74	2
Toronto	.532	.572	86	76	-6
Baltimore	.432	.459	70	92	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.538	.552	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.506	.531	82	80	-4
Kansas City	.452	.428	73	89	4
Detroit	.458	.486	74	88	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.622	.554	100	62	11
Oakland	.481	.480	78	84	0
Texas	.478	.453	77	85	4
Seattle	.365	.397	59	103	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.567	.581	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.439	.476	71	91	-6
Washington	.372	.378	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.613	.626	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.545	.537	88	74	1
Houston	.529	.476	85	77	9
St. Louis	.513	.520	83	79	-1
Pittsburgh	.417	.407	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.468	.445	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.530	84	78	-2
Arizona	.506	.517	82	80	-2
Colorado	.455	.443	74	88	2
San Francisco	.449	.422	73	89	4
San Diego	.391	.422	64	98	-5