As It Stands: If the Season Started With the Rosters Today...

Welcome back, loyal readers! The winter is almost over, and we're close to the beginning of the baseball season (I know because the clock just moved forward one hour and daylight lasts until 7pm).

Every year I look at how the Win Shares (as described by Bill James, and calculated for the season by The Hardball Times) have changed via trades and free agent signings. Since three Win Shares equal one win, a team that gains 6 Win Shares by signing free agent would therefore win two more games than they would had they not signed anyone. I go one step further: since a team would likely replace a departing player with at least an average player, I prefer to use Hardball Times' Win Shares Above Bench, meaning that the player in question is worth that many more wins over a replacement average player.

Let's look at an example: the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. In the offseason, they've done the following, with their accompanying Win Shares gained/lost:

• Lost Pat Burrell (9 WSAB)
• Signed Raul Ibanez (11 WSAB)
• Signed Chan Ho Park (3 WSAB)
• a bunch of releases and signings that net to roughly zero

The Phillies adjusted Pythagorean Record last year was 91 wins. Subtract Burrell's 9 WSAB, add in Ibanez (11) and Park (3) which equals 14-9=5, divide by 3 to get the additional wins, in this case 2. Therefore, based on last year's Phillies' team doing roughly the same all else being equal would win two more games because of the roster changes. I followed this same basic process for all the teams, and the result is the following table:

AL
EAST	2008 WP	2008 P WP	P W+new	P L	Win Shares Net
Tampa Bay	.600	.572	99	63	2
Boston	.588	.600	98	64	2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	92	70	3
Toronto	.531	.573	82	80	-4
Baltimore	.421	.452	69	93	1
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	90	72	2
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	0
Cleveland	.500	.527	83	79	2
Detroit	.459	.482	76	86	1
Kansas City	.463	.441	74	88	0
WEST
LA Angels	.619	.545	98	64	-2
Oakland	.472	.470	81	81	4
Texas	.488	.466	73	89	-6
Seattle	.369	.402	56	106	-3
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	93	69	2
NY Mets	.550	.556	92	70	3
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	0
Atlanta	.444	.481	76	86	4
Washington	.371	.379	61	101	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	97	65	-1
Houston	.535	.481	85	77	-1
St. Louis	.525	.530	83	79	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	81	81	-9
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	0
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	0
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	1
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	0
Colorado	.463	.454	74	88	-1
San Francisco	.440	.413	74	88	3
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	1

The biggest winner in the AL is Oakland, although unfortunately those 4 games will likely only translate into a 2nd place finish. The biggest loser in that league will be the Rangers. The most interesting story will probably be the AL East, where it looks like Boston and Tampa Bay will again be neck and neck for the season, with the Yankees coming a close 3rd.

The Yankees are interesting: they added Teixeira (13), Sabathia (18), Burnett (8)--a whopping 39 WSAB (or roughly 13 wins above replacement players)! Unfortunately, though, they lost Mussina (13), Abreu (11), and Giambi (6), or 30/3 = 10 games, which you can see shows where they gain 3 games in the standings.

In the NL, the most improved team will be the Braves, but the biggest winner is the Cubs, on the strength of the Brewers being the biggest losers (9 games in the standings!). Losing Sheets (11), Sabathia (13), and on lesser level, Shouse (4) for a total of 28 WSAB lost.

Even with all the changes, the only race that looks like it would change from last year is that the Twins would beat the White Sox by two games.

Keep in mind, that this is using the stats from last season, and while the best predictor of the future is the past, that doesn't mean that it always ends up that way--look at the stock market from last year to this year for case in point.

If there is any more activity prior to the beginning of the season, I will duly note the changes.

Phillies Are No Slouches--Rays Have a Tough Series Even With Home Advantage

Back when the Cubs were the team to beat, I always thought the Phillies would present the toughest challenge. I should have known better that, once October rolls around, even a team made up of Florida Seniors could beat them. One thing I also knew, is that both Boston or Tampa Bay were better than any NL team. So if we look at the numbers alone, sans context, the World Series will be a toss-up, with the slight advantage going to the Phillies, based on their Road record particularly. 

The big caveat in this, though, is that the Phils play in the National League which is not as strong a league as the AL, and particularly not as strong as the survivor of the AL East, which is a beast (and I will stop the rhyme there).

Whoever wins the first game will certainly get the edge, because then, in either case, that winner will hold a 70% chance of taking the Series.

WS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	5%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	51%	7%

Home for Three

Rays are back in it, as are the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the second best winning percentage at home, Red Sox have the best. I bet LA will win at least one more home game. The Red Sox could very well sweep at home (hence the great chance of winning still, even though the series is 1-1).

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	41%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	59%	0%
NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	72%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	28%	0%

According to Hoyle...

Odds for the Phillies making it to the Series have gone up sharply with their two victories, and winning the first game has made a world (series) of difference for the Red Sox, who now are most likely to win the series. The Dodgers home winning percentage probably means that they should be able to win at least one at home, but the Phillies are no slouches on the road.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	30%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	70%	16%
NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	82%	18%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	18%	0%

Who Will Be Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?

Rays/Red Sox is a toss-up--couldn't be a closer matchup. I thought at the beginning of the year that the Red Sox were the best team in the majors and there's no reason to change my mind now. My initial (though un-posted) prediction of the World Series was BoSox over the Cubs. Insert lamentation here. Or just insert Phillies.

This is looking kind of like last year, where I had the Cubs beating Arizona, and Phillies beating the Rockies. Then I had Arizona beating the Rockies--I wasn't right until I finally had the Red Sox over the Rockies. But the numbers don't lie: the Phils are better than the commuter-train-dodgers (sorry, that's bad). If the Dodgers can demoralize the Phillies by taking two in the City of Brothelly Love, they can pull off an upset again.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	19%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	51%	13%
NLCS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	66%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	34%	10%

Rays and Red Sox Increase Their Odds, Things Look Bad For Angels and White Sox

The Angels and the White Sox have basically a 1 in 4 chance of making it to the ALCS. Looks like I might not be able to spin out my long-awaited probability of the Cubs meeting the White Sox in the World Series.

The Phillies are playing right now and beating Sabathia badly. The question on the Hot Stove circuit will certainly be "Is it too many starts on 3-days rest down the stretch or is he just not a 'clutch' or capable playoff pitcher?" Last year in the playoffs, his ERA was 9.00...

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	24%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	76%	30%
Rays	0.628	0.515	74%	25%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	26%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	42%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	58%	17%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	69%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	31%	0%

I Guess That Answer's Last Night's Question; Now Updated Playoff Odds

No real changes except that we now have the actual contestants and final runs/runs against. Basically, I still think the Red Sox will beat the Angels (57% chance to do so); Rays will beat the White Sox (61%--Sorry, Chicago, no subway series); Cubs will beat the Dodgers (68%); and even though the Phillies have a 53% chance to beat the Brewers, that is really a toss-up.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	43%	10%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	57%	15%
Rays	0.628	0.515	61%	17%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	39%	6%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	68%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	32%	5%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	53%	14%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	47%	10%

And if each of the teams predicted to lose the series wins the first game, it changes the odds to plus 60% for all of those teams, except one, the Cubs. They would no longer be favored, but the odds would be just under 50/50 for them to pull it out anyway.

Playoff Prediction or Fun With Pythagorean, Log5 and Probabilities: Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox Will Advance

Alright folks (all 60 of you now!), you'll hear it here first: the Red Sox will upset the Angels. The Red Sox have an almost 60% chance of taking the series, mostly on the strength of better record on the road, and an unbelievable record at home.

The Rays will almost certainly beat whoever they play, be it the depleted Twins or depleted White Sox.

The Cubs, on the strength of an excellent road record, also have a great chance to proceed to the NLCS, 67% (the most of any of the post-season aspirants). Their home record vs. the road record of the Dodgers is very big, and their excellent road record can almost nullify the great home advantage of the Dodgers. On the other hand, should the Dodgers steal one at Wrigley, that would probably have a significant effect on the outcome.

Phillies should beat the Brewers (57% chance), and that might be more true considering how much Milwaukee's staff was battered and overworked in the last week (except when CC Sabathia pitched).

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Odds to Win Series	Odds to Sweep
Angels	0.525	0.554	41%	9%
Red Sox	0.658	0.536	59%	16%
Rays	0.628	0.514	x%	x%
Twins/WS	0.xxx	0.xxx	x%	x%
NLDS
Cubs	0.642	0.596	67%	21%
Dodgers	0.637	0.456	33%	6%
Phillies	0.588	0.561	58%	16%
Brewers	0.558	0.522	42%	9%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small.

1: I Think It'll Be A Playoff Game For the Mets/Brewers; Twins Will Upset the White Sox

I had predicted a Subway Series back in June. Did the Carlos Quentin injury do in the Sox? How about the Contreras injury? In either case, it doesn't look good for the Sox, who have to win their last game and hope that the Royals sweep the Twins.

It's definitely looking like the Brewers and Mets will end up in a one-game playoff. Santana was rock-solid today, but it's the unpredictable Oliver Perez going tomorrow for the Mets, and the very predictable and wins except against the Cubs, CC Sabathia.

I love this game!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
x-Tampa Bay	.596	.571	97	65	4
y-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.572	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.425	.453	69	93	-4
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.540	.550	88	74	-2
Chicago Sox	.538	.547	87	75	-1
Cleveland	.503	.531	82	80	-4
Detroit	.463	.482	75	87	-3
Kansas City	.466	.443	75	87	4
WEST
*-LA Angels	.615	.542	100	62	12
Texas	.491	.468	79	83	4
Oakland	.469	.468	76	86	0
Seattle	.373	.405	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
x-Philadelphia	.565	.577	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.553	.557	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.501	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.485	72	90	-6
Washington	.369	.379	60	102	-2
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.606	.620	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.541	90	72	2
Houston	.531	.477	86	76	9
St. Louis	.528	.532	86	76	-1
Cincinnati	.460	.440	74	88	3
Pittsburgh	.410	.405	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.540	85	77	-3
Arizona	.503	.509	82	80	-1
Colorado	.460	.453	74	88	1
San Francisco	.441	.414	71	91	4
San Diego	.391	.413	63	99	-4

3: Twins' Dome Sweeps the Sox Out of First, Mets/Brewers Tied--2 games for Any One of Them Will Put Them in the Playoffs

The Mets great game tonight keeps them in contention with the Brewers after their extra inning affair. Boy--the Pirates are the tonic for what ails you in the NL. And the Twins now have the upper hand over the White Sox. This is going to be a great weekend for baseball!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.604	.574	98	64	5
z-Boston	.591	.609	96	66	-3
NY Yankees	.547	.533	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.571	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.547	.557	89	73	-2
Chicago Sox	.544	.554	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.497	.526	81	81	-5
Detroit	.456	.480	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.620	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.367	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.553	.559	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.608	.622	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.542	90	72	2
Houston	.532	.480	86	76	8
St. Louis	.522	.529	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.465	.442	75	87	4
Pittsburgh	.409	.403	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.525	.542	85	77	-3
Arizona	.497	.506	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.455	75	87	2
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.386	.412	63	99	-4

4: White Sox Need to Win Two More Games; One-Game Playoff Between Mets & Brewers?

And it would help if they win one of those tomorrow against the Twins or there will be no chance for a Subway Series this year, just in time for the 102nd anniversary of the first one (Cubs vs. Sox in 1906).

And interestingly, the Phillies should still win the NL East, and it looks like a tie now between the Brewers and hapless Mets (subject of a special post from the game tomorrow at Shea Stadium). The Cubs are practically in the weird position to pick their opponent for the NLCS.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.608	.576	98	64	5
z-Boston	.589	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.551	.537	89	73	2
Toronto	.525	.567	85	77	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.548	.555	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.544	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.529	81	81	-5
Detroit	.452	.479	73	89	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.611	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.551	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.529	.479	85	77	8
St. Louis	.519	.523	84	78	-1
Cincinnati	.468	.443	76	86	4
Pittsburgh	.411	.405	67	95	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.513	81	81	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

6: The Mets? Ouch--But They'll, uh, Make It!

The White Sox, the Dodgers, and the Mets only need to win two more games to effectively clinch the playoffs. I still have egg on my face from making that call for the Mets last year, but I'm sure they'll be able to do it given their stats.

The Red Sox and Phillies will both effectively clinch with one more win, but barring a monstrous collapse, both will be in the playoffs. Actually, in a preview of those, Boston is by far the scariest team to face, and the Angels do have something to worry about. In this table (without my log5 win probability calculated completely, yet), note that the Sox are underperforming by 4 games, while the Angels are OVERperforming by 11. That's an amazing number and one that I have not seen in a first place team at the end of the season in the 5 years I've been doing this. Is it the Angels' great relief, namely Frankie K? Great managing? I don't know, but if I was a betting man, I would put money on Boston to take them out in the first round.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.571	97	65	5
Boston	.583	.606	95	67	-4
NY Yankees	.545	.533	88	74	2
Toronto	.532	.572	86	76	-6
Baltimore	.432	.459	70	92	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.538	.552	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.506	.531	82	80	-4
Kansas City	.452	.428	73	89	4
Detroit	.458	.486	74	88	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.622	.554	100	62	11
Oakland	.481	.480	78	84	0
Texas	.478	.453	77	85	4
Seattle	.365	.397	59	103	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.567	.581	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.439	.476	71	91	-6
Washington	.372	.378	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.613	.626	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.545	.537	88	74	1
Houston	.529	.476	85	77	9
St. Louis	.513	.520	83	79	-1
Pittsburgh	.417	.407	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.468	.445	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.530	84	78	-2
Arizona	.506	.517	82	80	-2
Colorado	.455	.443	74	88	2
San Francisco	.449	.422	73	89	4
San Diego	.391	.422	64	98	-5

7: A Week From Today, There Will Be Two Less "Old" Stadiums...

Yeah, it was a tear-jerker earlier this evening watching the last game in a storied ballpark. I still don't know why it needs to be replaced, but hey, I'm not the fire inspector. I'm looking forward to the Cubs at the Mets on Thursday, when I have tickets to see one of the last games at Shea.

I've already put together the log5 predictions for the playoffs based on current standings, and it's going to be an interesting post-season. Let's put it this way: the top two teams in each league do NOT have an easy path to the World Series. More on that later in the week.

For now, it looks like the Phillies can beat the annually free-falling Mets, but they'll both make the playoffs. Either way, one or the other will be playing the Dodgers, and it won't be as easy a victory as it seems. Same with the Cubs and the eventual Wild Card.

The Angels will not have an easy time with Boston, nor will the Rays have an easy time with the White Sox.

Did I just say the Cubs and the White Sox will be in the playoffs in the same year? Can you say Subway Series? Enjoy the last week!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.597	.570	97	65	5
Boston	.587	.607	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.545	.533	88	74	2
Toronto	.532	.572	86	76	-6
Baltimore	.435	.460	71	91	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.538	.552	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.503	.530	82	80	-4
Kansas City	.449	.425	73	89	4
Detroit	.461	.488	75	87	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.619	.554	100	62	11
Texas	.481	.453	78	84	5
Oakland	.477	.479	77	85	0
Seattle	.368	.397	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.564	.578	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.555	.563	90	72	-1
Florida	.523	.500	85	78	4
Atlanta	.442	.479	72	90	-6
Washington	.372	.378	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
x-Chicago Cubs	.610	.624	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.545	.537	88	74	1
Houston	.529	.476	85	77	9
St. Louis	.516	.522	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.417	.407	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.465	.443	75	87	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.530	84	78	-2
Arizona	.503	.515	82	80	-2
Colorado	.455	.443	74	88	2
San Francisco	.449	.422	73	89	4
San Diego	.391	.422	64	98	-5

8: Can the White Sox Hold On? Will The Phillies Do To The Brewers This Year What They Did To The Mets Last Year?

With the Twins not able to shake the Rays, they are ceding the AL Central to the White Sox. The Dodgers look to be holding off the Diamondbacks. And with the Brewers' pitiful slide the last two weeks, Both the Mets and the Phillies will be making the Playoffs.

This last actually might not be good for the Cubs, because they have to play a much better team the NL Worst's Dodgers to advance to the next round, either the Mets or Phillies. On the other hand, none of the teams would have fared very well with the Cubs' home advantage.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.599	.569	97	65	5
Boston	.584	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.542	.530	88	74	2
Toronto	.535	.574	87	75	-6
Baltimore	.438	.462	71	91	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.556	.561	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.539	.554	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.497	.525	81	81	-5
Kansas City	.448	.424	72	90	4
Detroit	.467	.493	76	86	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.614	.549	99	63	11
Texas	.487	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.474	.478	77	85	-1
Seattle	.370	.398	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.562	.565	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.558	.576	91	71	-3
Florida	.529	.503	86	76	4
Atlanta	.435	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.377	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
x-Chicago Cubs	.608	.622	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.542	.532	88	74	2
Houston	.529	.474	85	77	9
St. Louis	.519	.525	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.416	.407	67	95	1
Cincinnati	.468	.448	76	86	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.529	84	78	-2
Arizona	.497	.507	81	81	-2
Colorado	.461	.450	75	87	2
San Francisco	.448	.423	72	90	4
San Diego	.383	.415	62	100	-5

9: Too Close To Call, or Too Soon To Call?

Well, it's pretty obvious that 3 races are too soon to call, but we know what will happen (Rays, Red Sox, White Sox will secure playoff spots, in addition to the official winner of the AL West). The Dodgers still have a possibility of blowing it, so it's too close to call, and even though the division title is too close to call, both the Mets and the Phillies will make the playoffs, with the Brewers' freefall.

My original prediction, back in June, was a Cubs vs. White Sox World Series. As of now, it could still happen. In effect, to effectively clinch the division, the Sox will have to win 3 more games with the Twins predicted to win 87 (they already have 85)

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.599	.569	97	65	5
Boston	.588	.608	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.539	.530	87	75	1
Toronto	.532	.573	87	75	-7
Baltimore	.441	.463	72	90	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.556	.561	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.539	.554	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.497	.525	81	81	-5
Detroit	.467	.493	76	86	-4
Kansas City	.448	.424	72	90	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.614	.549	99	63	11
Texas	.487	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.471	.477	76	86	-1
Seattle	.373	.398	61	101	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.562	.565	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.558	.576	91	71	-3
Florida	.529	.503	86	76	4
Atlanta	.435	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.377	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.605	.622	98	64	-3
Milwaukee	.545	.533	88	74	2
Houston	.529	.474	85	77	9
St. Louis	.523	.526	85	77	0
Cincinnati	.464	.447	75	87	3
Pittsburgh	.416	.407	67	95	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.529	84	78	-2
Arizona	.497	.507	81	81	-2
Colorado	.461	.450	75	87	2
San Francisco	.448	.423	72	90	4
San Diego	.383	.415	62	100	-5

10: Picture is getting clearer...

OK, what do you want me to say? Will Boston beat Tampa Bay? Well it's very likely considering the Rays are way overperforming. But they've been doing so all year, so what else is new--maybe this is their level.

It really doesn't matter, though, because the Red Sox will still be in the playoffs. The Sox of a paler persuasion should be able to hold off the Gemini, but it is still a tossup, really. Ozzie's crew isn't overperforming like the past, but the Twins are underperforming considerably, so some changes can still occur.

For my buds in NYC, I hope the Mets make it, but it does appear to be going down to the wire. And Torre's trolley Dodgers (where there are none) will most likely make the playoffs.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.596	.562	96	66	6
Boston	.586	.608	95	67	-4
Toronto	.536	.574	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.536	.529	87	75	1
Baltimore	.444	.463	72	90	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.553	.558	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.542	.561	88	74	-3
Cleveland	.493	.525	80	82	-5
Detroit	.470	.494	76	86	-4
Kansas City	.451	.427	73	89	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.612	.548	98	64	10
Texas	.490	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.467	.475	76	86	-1
Seattle	.375	.399	61	101	-4
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.562	.582	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Florida	.526	.499	85	77	4
Atlanta	.438	.479	71	91	-7
Washington	.379	.385	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.609	.628	99	63	-3
Milwaukee	.549	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.471	85	77	9
St. Louis	.520	.522	84	78	0
Cincinnati	.461	.440	74	88	3
Pittsburgh	.418	.409	68	94	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.523	.534	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.458	.449	74	88	1
San Francisco	.444	.418	72	90	4
San Diego	.379	.410	62	100	-5

11: Cubs, Red Sox, Rays as good as clinched, White Sox and Dodgers should do so also; Mets, Phillies, and Brewers Still a Tossup

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.597	.560	96	66	6
Boston	.589	.614	96	66	-4
Toronto	.530	.573	86	76	-7
NY Yankees	.530	.522	86	76	1
Baltimore	.450	.464	73	89	-2
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.560	.566	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.543	.562	88	74	-3
Cleveland	.490	.524	80	82	-5
Detroit	.467	.485	76	86	-3
Kansas City	.444	.415	72	90	5
WEST
x-LA Angels	.613	.548	99	63	11
Texas	.493	.464	80	82	5
Oakland	.467	.476	76	86	-1
Seattle	.380	.408	62	100	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.556	.578	90	72	-4
NY Mets	.553	.559	90	72	-1
Florida	.520	.485	84	78	6
Atlanta	.444	.483	72	90	-6
Washington	.384	.388	62	100	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.611	.632	99	63	-3
Milwaukee	.550	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.533	.485	86	76	8
St. Louis	.520	.523	84	78	-1
Cincinnati	.460	.438	74	88	4
Pittsburgh	.417	.404	67	95	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.523	.540	85	77	-3
Arizona	.493	.507	80	82	-2
Colorado	.454	.448	73	89	1
San Francisco	.450	.418	73	89	5
San Diego	.382	.411	62	100	-5