Die Another Day

The Angels and White Sox live to fight another day and keep slim hopes alive: both of them have the exact same odds to overcome, a 1 in 5 chance of winning their ALDS series. And in case you so enjoyed my anatomy of a stat, here's another one. What are the chances of the White Sox facing the Angels in the ALCS?

1/5 x 1/5 (each is the chance that they will make it to the next round) = 1/25 or 1 in 25 chances would this happen. I've seen worse odds...

Congratulations to the LA Party Poopers, I mean Dodgers, and the Phillies.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	20%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	80%	0%
Rays	0.628	0.515	80%	0%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	20%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	0%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	100%	100%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	100%	0%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	0%	0%

Mirage in Chicago

I'm sorry for any Red Sox, or Cleveland, Phillies, or San Francisco fan out there, but there is no worse fan that one can be than of the Cursed Cubs. They lose when they're predicted to lose, and they lose when they're predicted to win. In short, all they really do is lose. It's not a curse--that is ridiculous. But the negativity surrounding this team is palpable: fans don't cheer when they're behind, the players take on all the expectations of finally being "the one" that they inevitably press and try too hard, and inevitably as well, lose. Game after game. Home field advantage or not, they lose. As the game goes on, rather than trying to calm down and get good at-bats, they swing at pitches in the dirt like single-A minor leaguers. Pitchers overpitch and end up walking everyone they face. If you're a Cubs fan, that is the most pathetic thing to be. In the Cubs' sabermetric world, the usual saying is the same, except let me put it in mathematical notation: Wait 'til Next Year = Cubs + October + (Win Expectancy > 0) = ∞ / 0

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	24%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	76%	30%
Rays	0.628	0.515	74%	25%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	26%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	14%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	86%	17%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	86%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	14%	0%

Rays and Red Sox Increase Their Odds, Things Look Bad For Angels and White Sox

The Angels and the White Sox have basically a 1 in 4 chance of making it to the ALCS. Looks like I might not be able to spin out my long-awaited probability of the Cubs meeting the White Sox in the World Series.

The Phillies are playing right now and beating Sabathia badly. The question on the Hot Stove circuit will certainly be "Is it too many starts on 3-days rest down the stretch or is he just not a 'clutch' or capable playoff pitcher?" Last year in the playoffs, his ERA was 9.00...

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	24%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	76%	30%
Rays	0.628	0.515	74%	25%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	26%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	42%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	58%	17%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	69%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	31%	0%

I Guess That Answer's Last Night's Question; Now Updated Playoff Odds

No real changes except that we now have the actual contestants and final runs/runs against. Basically, I still think the Red Sox will beat the Angels (57% chance to do so); Rays will beat the White Sox (61%--Sorry, Chicago, no subway series); Cubs will beat the Dodgers (68%); and even though the Phillies have a 53% chance to beat the Brewers, that is really a toss-up.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	43%	10%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	57%	15%
Rays	0.628	0.515	61%	17%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	39%	6%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	68%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	32%	5%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	53%	14%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	47%	10%

And if each of the teams predicted to lose the series wins the first game, it changes the odds to plus 60% for all of those teams, except one, the Cubs. They would no longer be favored, but the odds would be just under 50/50 for them to pull it out anyway.