Tuesday, September 30, 2008

I Guess That Answer's Last Night's Question; Now Updated Playoff Odds

No real changes except that we now have the actual contestants and final runs/runs against. Basically, I still think the Red Sox will beat the Angels (57% chance to do so); Rays will beat the White Sox (61%--Sorry, Chicago, no subway series); Cubs will beat the Dodgers (68%); and even though the Phillies have a 53% chance to beat the Brewers, that is really a toss-up.

ALDS H PWP A PWP

Win

Sweep
Angels 0.539 0.556 43% 10%
Red Sox 0.652 0.534 57% 15%
         
Rays 0.628 0.515 61% 17%
White Sox 0.644 0.441 39% 6%
         
NLDS
Cubs 0.649 0.593 68% 22%
Dodgers 0.637 0.454 32% 5%
         
Phillies 0.598 0.561 53% 14%
Brewers 0.635 0.522 47% 10%

And if each of the teams predicted to lose the series wins the first game, it changes the odds to plus 60% for all of those teams, except one, the Cubs. They would no longer be favored, but the odds would be just under 50/50 for them to pull it out anyway.

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