Saturday, September 13, 2008

15: Not Much Action Due to Ike

I will be posting only the new Real World Magic Number stat from here on out, unless there is a compelling change in results or other reason. For now, I will see how this RWM# works as an actual predictor of the course of events over the next few weeks. The only changes from yesterday due to the major storms around the East Coast were the Rays and Red Sox both reducing their numbers, as well as the White Sox and the Dodgers, all by 1.

PS: Kudos to ESPN for incorporating an expanded version of standings that takes into account some of the same things I do, and also utilizes a similar system as BaseballProspectus. They are using Coolstanding to get their playoff odds data. Both Coolstanding and BP use Monte Carlo simulations for their predictions, where I simply use a derivative of Pythagorean Expectation and actual performance for my predictions. As I pointed out before, these numbers are highly correlated and usually the same.

AL W PW RW Magic #
Tampa Bay 87 97 10
Boston 86 96 12
Chicago Sox 81 90 9
Minnesota 80 89 11
x-LA Angels 90 98 0
Wild Card      
Boston 86 96 4
Minnesota 80 89 17
NY Mets 82 92 8
Philadelphia 80 89 13
Chicago Cubs 88 98 4
Milwaukee 83 91 16
LA Dodgers 76 84 5
Arizona 72 80 13
Wild Card      
Milwaukee 83 91 7
Philadelphia 80 89 12

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