Friday, September 26, 2008

Final Weekend: National League Version

The table below is the Log5 probability (I will explain this in a following post) of the possible results in this weekends NL games with Playoff implications. The three columns are probability of a sweep for each team, for getting two wins, and getting one win.

The Brewers and Mets need to win 2 games and the Mets have the best chance of doing that. The numbers absolutely favor the Phillies winning at least one game and very likely two, and the Mets are second most likely to win. Of course, will the Cubs bring their A-Team this weekend? Given what I saw last night in Shea Stadium, they probably won't. Of course, the B-Team sure didn't disappoint too badly.

  sweep 2-wins 1-win
Cubs 19.3% 42.3% 30.9%
Brewers 7.5% 30.9% 42.3%
Phillies 30.6% 44.4% 21.5%
Nationals 3.5% 21.5% 44.4%
Mets 15.2% 39.8% 34.8%
Marlins 10.1% 34.8% 39.8%

Ed note: My original post incorrectly showed the Cubs as the home team, and they are in fact the visiting team in Milwaukee. The numbers changed slightly.

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