Sunday, September 28, 2008

Playoff Prediction or Fun With Pythagorean, Log5 and Probabilities: Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox Will Advance

Alright folks (all 60 of you now!), you'll hear it here first: the Red Sox will upset the Angels. The Red Sox have an almost 60% chance of taking the series, mostly on the strength of better record on the road, and an unbelievable record at home.

The Rays will almost certainly beat whoever they play, be it the depleted Twins or depleted White Sox.

The Cubs, on the strength of an excellent road record, also have a great chance to proceed to the NLCS, 67% (the most of any of the post-season aspirants). Their home record vs. the road record of the Dodgers is very big, and their excellent road record can almost nullify the great home advantage of the Dodgers. On the other hand, should the Dodgers steal one at Wrigley, that would probably have a significant effect on the outcome.

Phillies should beat the Brewers (57% chance), and that might be more true considering how much Milwaukee's staff was battered and overworked in the last week (except when CC Sabathia pitched).


Odds to

Win Series

Odds to

Angels 0.525 0.554 41% 9%
Red Sox 0.658 0.536 59% 16%
Rays 0.628 0.514 x% x%
Twins/WS x% x%
Cubs 0.642 0.596 67% 21%
Dodgers 0.637 0.456 33% 6%
Phillies 0.588 0.561 58% 16%
Brewers 0.558 0.522 42% 9%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage
A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage
These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small.

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