Friday, September 26, 2008

Updated, and Now, AL, too

Updated probabilities, plus I've finally included the White Sox and Twins. So how does it look for our finalists, some of whom will go home with consolation prizes (a higher draft pick next summer?).

Important places to look below: the Brewers have an 18% chance to sweep the Cubs, but even if they win only two, their chances of winning two now is almost 50/50. That is in stark contrast to the Mets who have only a 50/50 chance of winning ONE game. The Phillies have practically clinched, so they're not even in the equation anymore. If the Brewers win one more game, that will probably knock the Mets off (sorry, Mets fans).

I think I have to say sorry to White Sox fans also: they have to win the next two games to guarantee a tie, whereas the Twins, winning two games, will win the division. In the immortal words of The Jam, "Here Comes The Weekend"!

  sweep 2-wins 1-win
Cubs 0.0% 33.1% 48.9%
Brewers 18.1% 48.9% 33.1%
Phillies 45.4% 43.9% 10.6%
Nationals 0.0% 10.6% 43.9%
Mets 0.0% 28.6% 49.8%
Marlins 21.6% 49.8% 28.6%
White Sox 0.0% 48.2% 42.4%
Indians 9.3% 42.4% 48.2%
Twins 0.0% 55.2% 38.2%
KC 6.6% 38.2% 55.2%

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