Thursday, September 11, 2008

A New Way to the Magic Number

Later this evening I will be posting a new "version" of the Magic Number. The way this has been calculated is by taking the predicted finish of the second place team, and subtracting the number of games left to achieve that number of games. So for instance, the Cubs' real Magic Number is 13, but subtracting out the expected games that Milwaukee is expected to lose according to their pythagorean record, the "real world" Magic Number, or RW Magic #, is actually less than that, closer to 6.

One thing different about the RW Magic # is that it does not figure in opponent's losses. So if the Cubs have an RW M# of 6, that means they have to win 6 games by the end of the season and that should be all it takes. Of course, this number will change as the second place team goes on a winning streak, but will stay the same if they play according to their predicted wins.

If anyone is interested in the actual formula, let me know and I will post it.

1 comment:

Dave Tainer said...

OK, I admit, I made a mistake. I erroneously thought that this RW Magic # would only change if the 1st place team won, and then, only by one game. Well, it actually does work like a regular magic #--it goes down even if the opposing team loses.

I'll be posting this new stat shortly.