12: Cubs Have Basically Clinched, Other Races Still Too Close To Call

Although also the Rays and Red Sox have clinched playoff spots, though not the divisional standings. Why do I say those things? Basically, the Cubs have won 90 games, and the prediction for Milwaukee is 89, so it's basically over in the division. I would say that Milwaukee can hold off the Phillies, but that's what the Mets said last year...

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.595	.560	96	66	6
Boston	.593	.615	96	66	-3
Toronto	.533	.575	87	75	-7
NY Yankees	.533	.525	86	76	1
Baltimore	.446	.463	72	90	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.557	.564	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.547	.565	89	73	-3
Cleveland	.487	.522	79	83	-6
Detroit	.470	.486	76	86	-3
Kansas City	.440	.413	71	91	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.617	.554	99	63	10
Texas	.490	.463	79	83	4
Oakland	.463	.470	75	87	-1
Seattle	.383	.410	62	100	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.557	.560	90	72	-1
Philadelphia	.553	.578	90	72	-4
Florida	.517	.482	83	79	6
Atlanta	.447	.484	73	89	-6
Washington	.380	.388	62	100	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.608	.632	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.553	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.537	.487	86	76	8
St. Louis	.523	.527	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.456	.434	74	88	4
Pittsburgh	.420	.406	68	94	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.520	.537	84	78	-3
Arizona	.490	.505	80	82	-2
San Francisco	.453	.420	73	89	5
Colorado	.450	.443	73	89	1
San Diego	.384	.415	63	99	-5

14: Real World Magic Number, Little Action

All those rainouts so little action again tonight. A couple of teams have shortened their RWM#, though not too much.

AL	W	PW	RW Magic #
East
Tampa Bay	88	97	9
Boston	87	96	11
Central
Minnesota	82	90	9
Chicago Sox	81	90	10
West
x-LA Angels	91	99	0
Wild Card
Boston	87	96	4
Minnesota	82	90	15
NL
East
NY Mets	83	92	7
Philadelphia	81	89	12
Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16
West
LA Dodgers	77	84	4
Arizona	72	80	13
Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	81	89	11

15: Not Much Action Due to Ike

I will be posting only the new Real World Magic Number stat from here on out, unless there is a compelling change in results or other reason. For now, I will see how this RWM# works as an actual predictor of the course of events over the next few weeks. The only changes from yesterday due to the major storms around the East Coast were the Rays and Red Sox both reducing their numbers, as well as the White Sox and the Dodgers, all by 1.

PS: Kudos to ESPN for incorporating an expanded version of standings that takes into account some of the same things I do, and also utilizes a similar system as BaseballProspectus. They are using Coolstanding to get their playoff odds data. Both Coolstanding and BP use Monte Carlo simulations for their predictions, where I simply use a derivative of Pythagorean Expectation and actual performance for my predictions. As I pointed out before, these numbers are highly correlated and usually the same.

AL	W	PW	RW Magic #
East
Tampa Bay	87	97	10
Boston	86	96	12
Central
Chicago Sox	81	90	9
Minnesota	80	89	11
West
x-LA Angels	90	98	0
Wild Card
Boston	86	96	4
Minnesota	80	89	17
NL
East
NY Mets	82	92	8
Philadelphia	80	89	13
Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16
West
LA Dodgers	76	84	5
Arizona	72	80	13
Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	80	89	12