Final Weekend: National League Version

The table below is the Log5 probability (I will explain this in a following post) of the possible results in this weekends NL games with Playoff implications. The three columns are probability of a sweep for each team, for getting two wins, and getting one win.

The Brewers and Mets need to win 2 games and the Mets have the best chance of doing that. The numbers absolutely favor the Phillies winning at least one game and very likely two, and the Mets are second most likely to win. Of course, will the Cubs bring their A-Team this weekend? Given what I saw last night in Shea Stadium, they probably won't. Of course, the B-Team sure didn't disappoint too badly.

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	19.3%	42.3%	30.9%
Brewers	7.5%	30.9%	42.3%
Phillies	30.6%	44.4%	21.5%
Nationals	3.5%	21.5%	44.4%
Mets	15.2%	39.8%	34.8%
Marlins	10.1%	34.8%	39.8%

Ed note: My original post incorrectly showed the Cubs as the home team, and they are in fact the visiting team in Milwaukee. The numbers changed slightly.

14: Real World Magic Number, Little Action

All those rainouts so little action again tonight. A couple of teams have shortened their RWM#, though not too much.

AL	W	PW	RW Magic #
East
Tampa Bay	88	97	9
Boston	87	96	11
Central
Minnesota	82	90	9
Chicago Sox	81	90	10
West
x-LA Angels	91	99	0
Wild Card
Boston	87	96	4
Minnesota	82	90	15
NL
East
NY Mets	83	92	7
Philadelphia	81	89	12
Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16
West
LA Dodgers	77	84	4
Arizona	72	80	13
Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	81	89	11

15: Not Much Action Due to Ike

I will be posting only the new Real World Magic Number stat from here on out, unless there is a compelling change in results or other reason. For now, I will see how this RWM# works as an actual predictor of the course of events over the next few weeks. The only changes from yesterday due to the major storms around the East Coast were the Rays and Red Sox both reducing their numbers, as well as the White Sox and the Dodgers, all by 1.

PS: Kudos to ESPN for incorporating an expanded version of standings that takes into account some of the same things I do, and also utilizes a similar system as BaseballProspectus. They are using Coolstanding to get their playoff odds data. Both Coolstanding and BP use Monte Carlo simulations for their predictions, where I simply use a derivative of Pythagorean Expectation and actual performance for my predictions. As I pointed out before, these numbers are highly correlated and usually the same.

AL	W	PW	RW Magic #
East
Tampa Bay	87	97	10
Boston	86	96	12
Central
Chicago Sox	81	90	9
Minnesota	80	89	11
West
x-LA Angels	90	98	0
Wild Card
Boston	86	96	4
Minnesota	80	89	17
NL
East
NY Mets	82	92	8
Philadelphia	80	89	13
Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16
West
LA Dodgers	76	84	5
Arizona	72	80	13
Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	80	89	12

Playoff "Real World" Magic Number, next up to clinch: Cubs

AL
East	W	PW	RW Magic #
Tampa Bay	87	97	9
Boston	85	95	13
Central
Chicago Sox	81	90	9
Minnesota	80	89	11
West
x-LA Angels	88	97	0
Wild Card
Boston	85	95	5
Minnesota	80	89	16
NL
East
NY Mets	82	92	8
Philadelphia	80	89	13
Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16
West
LA Dodgers	75	83	6
Arizona	71	80	13
Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	80	89	12

A New Way to the Magic Number

Later this evening I will be posting a new "version" of the Magic Number. The way this has been calculated is by taking the predicted finish of the second place team, and subtracting the number of games left to achieve that number of games. So for instance, the Cubs' real Magic Number is 13, but subtracting out the expected games that Milwaukee is expected to lose according to their pythagorean record, the "real world" Magic Number, or RW Magic #, is actually less than that, closer to 6.

One thing different about the RW Magic # is that it does not figure in opponent's losses. So if the Cubs have an RW M# of 6, that means they have to win 6 games by the end of the season and that should be all it takes. Of course, this number will change as the second place team goes on a winning streak, but will stay the same if they play according to their predicted wins.

If anyone is interested in the actual formula, let me know and I will post it.