White Sox Vs. Twins in One-Game Playoff Tomorrow--Who Wins?

Based on the fact that White Sox are at home tomorrow, where they sport a lofty 0.643 pythagorean winning percentage, and that the Twins will bring their less-than-stellar 0.450 pythagorean road winning percentage, the Sox have a 69% chance of facing the Rays on Thursday, using the log5 win probability.

White Sox Have Good Chance to Tie for the NL Central Title Tomorrow

The White Sox have a 67% chance of beating the Tigers tomorrow and taking this into a Tuesday one-game playoff with the Twins. Very cool.

Playoff Prediction or Fun With Pythagorean, Log5 and Probabilities: Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox Will Advance

Alright folks (all 60 of you now!), you'll hear it here first: the Red Sox will upset the Angels. The Red Sox have an almost 60% chance of taking the series, mostly on the strength of better record on the road, and an unbelievable record at home.

The Rays will almost certainly beat whoever they play, be it the depleted Twins or depleted White Sox.

The Cubs, on the strength of an excellent road record, also have a great chance to proceed to the NLCS, 67% (the most of any of the post-season aspirants). Their home record vs. the road record of the Dodgers is very big, and their excellent road record can almost nullify the great home advantage of the Dodgers. On the other hand, should the Dodgers steal one at Wrigley, that would probably have a significant effect on the outcome.

Phillies should beat the Brewers (57% chance), and that might be more true considering how much Milwaukee's staff was battered and overworked in the last week (except when CC Sabathia pitched).

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Odds to Win Series	Odds to Sweep
Angels	0.525	0.554	41%	9%
Red Sox	0.658	0.536	59%	16%
Rays	0.628	0.514	x%	x%
Twins/WS	0.xxx	0.xxx	x%	x%
NLDS
Cubs	0.642	0.596	67%	21%
Dodgers	0.637	0.456	33%	6%
Phillies	0.588	0.561	58%	16%
Brewers	0.558	0.522	42%	9%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small.

Today's Win Probabilities for the Mets, Brewers, White Sox and Twins

It all comes down to one day, one game, to determine two divisional races.

The Mets have a 54% chance of winning their game; the Brewers only a 42% of winning theirs (based on log5, as explained yesterday). For the Brewers to win the Wild Card today, we multiply their odds of winning to the odds of the Mets losing, then vice versa for the Mets to win it:

Brewers, 42% x (1-54%) = 20%

Mets, 54% x (1-42%) = 31%

Tie Today, either by both winning or both losing, (42% x 54%) + ((1 - 42%) x (1 - 54%)) = 49%

As of now, the Mets and Marlins are tied 0-0 in the 3rd, while the Cubs have taken 1-0 lead in the first.

As for the Twins and White Sox, their situation is a little different. Two things have to happen for the White Sox to win the division--they have to win and the Twins lose, then play a one-game playoff. Whereas the Twins just need to hold serve:

Twins, 74% chance to win division (based on log5 win probability to beat the Royals)

White Sox, 70% x (1 - 74%) = 18% (Sox win AND Twins lose) just to tie for the NL Central

As of now, Sox lead 3-1 over Cleveland in the 3rd, and Twins/Royals 0-0.

Who do the odds favor to reach the post-season, then? Well, Twins and Mets have the better chances to outlast their opponents, though it will be much harder for the Mets.

And just a side note to Mets' fans--this team has lost Billy Wagner, John Maine and Ryan Church for extended portions of the season, long enough to have probably cost them the division. That they are even in this situation is a testament to the team (players and manager) in overcoming these obstacles. With those three playing the full season, they are about equal to the Cubs in performance.

UPDATE and OOOPS!: With the White Sox win today, they force their remaining game to be played--I hadn't taken that into account. So the Twins are done, and now have to wait until tomorrow to see if the tie happens or they win.

1: I Think It'll Be A Playoff Game For the Mets/Brewers; Twins Will Upset the White Sox

I had predicted a Subway Series back in June. Did the Carlos Quentin injury do in the Sox? How about the Contreras injury? In either case, it doesn't look good for the Sox, who have to win their last game and hope that the Royals sweep the Twins.

It's definitely looking like the Brewers and Mets will end up in a one-game playoff. Santana was rock-solid today, but it's the unpredictable Oliver Perez going tomorrow for the Mets, and the very predictable and wins except against the Cubs, CC Sabathia.

I love this game!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
x-Tampa Bay	.596	.571	97	65	4
y-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.572	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.425	.453	69	93	-4
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.540	.550	88	74	-2
Chicago Sox	.538	.547	87	75	-1
Cleveland	.503	.531	82	80	-4
Detroit	.463	.482	75	87	-3
Kansas City	.466	.443	75	87	4
WEST
*-LA Angels	.615	.542	100	62	12
Texas	.491	.468	79	83	4
Oakland	.469	.468	76	86	0
Seattle	.373	.405	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
x-Philadelphia	.565	.577	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.553	.557	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.501	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.485	72	90	-6
Washington	.369	.379	60	102	-2
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.606	.620	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.541	90	72	2
Houston	.531	.477	86	76	9
St. Louis	.528	.532	86	76	-1
Cincinnati	.460	.440	74	88	3
Pittsburgh	.410	.405	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.540	85	77	-3
Arizona	.503	.509	82	80	-1
Colorado	.460	.453	74	88	1
San Francisco	.441	.414	71	91	4
San Diego	.391	.413	63	99	-4

Fun With Probabilities: Brewers/Twins have best shot at postseason

I'm sure every one of my 34 regular readers (according to Google Analytics!) went immediately to their trusty Texas Instruments TI-35 calculators and used my probabilities from yesterdays' posts to calculate overall odds of making the post season for their favorite teams.

You mean you didn't?

OK, then, let's take a look from the spreadsheet. The beauty of probabilities, statistically speaking is that they can be added, subtracted and multiplied to come up with odds of combinations and odds of mutual exclusivity, among the many other possibilities. Here, we'll really look at the combinatorial property.

Before I delve into this, I want to point out that the best description of what I'm doing comes from DiamondMind Baseball. I first posted my playoff version of Bill James Log5 theorem in 2005. What I will be doing in the playoffs is exactly what they describe. You can also find my original description on BigShouldersSports, where I used to occasionally contribute. In essence, I take the home team's winning percentage at home vs. the away teams road winning percentage, all using the pythagorean expectations formula as used during the season, to compute a probability of victory in each game of the series. I then use the combinatorial mathematics to come up with the odds of sweeping, winning two games, or winning just one for each team. As you will see in the playoffs, this also will take into account all five or seven games.

For now, though, we've already had one game, so the odds have changed a little. Looking at the numbers for the Brewers, they have a 49% chance of beating the Cubs twice (since they won last night). The Mets have only a 29% chance of winning two games. The Brewers also have a 33% of winning one game, Mets have a 50% of doing so, facing easier competition. If both teams win one game or both teams win two games, then they end up tied, so we add up both of those probabilities for each team and multiply to get the odds of this happening, which is 64%.

But unfortunately, for the Mets, because they lost yesterday, they do not have the ability to sweep their series and will therefore have to hope that the Brewers will lose at least one game. Otherwise, the chances of the Brewers winning the Wild Card are 59% (odds of sweeping plus odds of winning two games plus odds of winning one game while the Mets lose two plus Mets losing one plus Mets being swept). Those same odds in reverse, i.e. for the Mets to win the WC, are 41%.

If you're wondering why some of those numbers don't total one hundred, it's because these possibilities are mutually exclusive, meaning they exist on their own (this is something I'm sure my regular visitors already know, but I include it in case I get some new visitors that might not). That is not true, though, for the Mets probability (P) of winning, that is exactly 41% because it is calculated 100% (Mets OR Brewers win P) minus 59% (Brewers win P).

Calculating the same for the White Sox and Twins, we get, respectively, 43% and 57%. Best way to check a probability is to do a gut-level check: Twins are playing the Royals, who are the worst team in the league, whereas the Sox are playing the Indians, which are in third place in the division. So the Sox have a tougher schedule.

2: Dead Heat in the AL Central; Brewers Back In the Driver's Seat

Nothing I can add beyond the title--will be interesting.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.572	97	65	5
z-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.531	.573	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.421	.452	68	94	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	88	74	-1
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.527	81	81	-4
Detroit	.459	.482	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.463	.441	75	87	3
WEST
*-LA Angels	.619	.545	100	62	12
Texas	.488	.466	79	83	3
Oakland	.472	.470	76	86	0
Seattle	.369	.402	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.550	.556	89	73	-1
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	3
Atlanta	.444	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.371	.379	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	90	72	2
Houston	.535	.481	86	76	9
St. Louis	.525	.530	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	3
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	-3
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.463	.454	75	87	1
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	-4

Updated, and Now, AL, too

Updated probabilities, plus I've finally included the White Sox and Twins. So how does it look for our finalists, some of whom will go home with consolation prizes (a higher draft pick next summer?).

Important places to look below: the Brewers have an 18% chance to sweep the Cubs, but even if they win only two, their chances of winning two now is almost 50/50. That is in stark contrast to the Mets who have only a 50/50 chance of winning ONE game. The Phillies have practically clinched, so they're not even in the equation anymore. If the Brewers win one more game, that will probably knock the Mets off (sorry, Mets fans).

I think I have to say sorry to White Sox fans also: they have to win the next two games to guarantee a tie, whereas the Twins, winning two games, will win the division. In the immortal words of The Jam, "Here Comes The Weekend"!

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	0.0%	33.1%	48.9%
Brewers	18.1%	48.9%	33.1%
Phillies	45.4%	43.9%	10.6%
Nationals	0.0%	10.6%	43.9%
Mets	0.0%	28.6%	49.8%
Marlins	21.6%	49.8%	28.6%
White Sox	0.0%	48.2%	42.4%
Indians	9.3%	42.4%	48.2%
Twins	0.0%	55.2%	38.2%
KC	6.6%	38.2%	55.2%

3: Twins' Dome Sweeps the Sox Out of First, Mets/Brewers Tied--2 games for Any One of Them Will Put Them in the Playoffs

The Mets great game tonight keeps them in contention with the Brewers after their extra inning affair. Boy--the Pirates are the tonic for what ails you in the NL. And the Twins now have the upper hand over the White Sox. This is going to be a great weekend for baseball!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.604	.574	98	64	5
z-Boston	.591	.609	96	66	-3
NY Yankees	.547	.533	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.571	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.547	.557	89	73	-2
Chicago Sox	.544	.554	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.497	.526	81	81	-5
Detroit	.456	.480	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.620	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.367	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.553	.559	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.608	.622	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.542	90	72	2
Houston	.532	.480	86	76	8
St. Louis	.522	.529	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.465	.442	75	87	4
Pittsburgh	.409	.403	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.525	.542	85	77	-3
Arizona	.497	.506	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.455	75	87	2
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.386	.412	63	99	-4

4: White Sox Need to Win Two More Games; One-Game Playoff Between Mets & Brewers?

And it would help if they win one of those tomorrow against the Twins or there will be no chance for a Subway Series this year, just in time for the 102nd anniversary of the first one (Cubs vs. Sox in 1906).

And interestingly, the Phillies should still win the NL East, and it looks like a tie now between the Brewers and hapless Mets (subject of a special post from the game tomorrow at Shea Stadium). The Cubs are practically in the weird position to pick their opponent for the NLCS.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.608	.576	98	64	5
z-Boston	.589	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.551	.537	89	73	2
Toronto	.525	.567	85	77	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.548	.555	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.544	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.529	81	81	-5
Detroit	.452	.479	73	89	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.611	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.551	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.529	.479	85	77	8
St. Louis	.519	.523	84	78	-1
Cincinnati	.468	.443	76	86	4
Pittsburgh	.411	.405	67	95	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.513	81	81	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

5: All the Phillies Met at a Brewer-y; White Sox Have Twins?

There's really only one race in the NL, but with two parts: Phillies over Mets, Mets over Brewers. I think the Brewers are going to come up short based on who they have to play over the weekend, but it should still be interesting.

In the AL, it's just one race, Sox vs. Twins. The Sox should be able to eke it out, but the Twins are not going down easy. This closeness is probably the one game of difference Carlos Quentin's injury has wrought.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.605	.573	98	64	5
z-Boston	.586	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.548	.534	89	73	2
Toronto	.529	.570	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.427	.456	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.551	.556	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.541	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.503	.530	82	80	-4
Detroit	.455	.483	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.456	.431	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.580	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.554	.562	90	72	-1
Florida	.516	.495	83	79	3
Atlanta	.443	.477	72	90	-6
Washington	.376	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.609	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.548	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.475	85	77	8
St. Louis	.516	.522	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.414	.406	67	95	1
Cincinnati	.471	.446	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.503	.514	82	80	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

7: A Week From Today, There Will Be Two Less "Old" Stadiums...

Yeah, it was a tear-jerker earlier this evening watching the last game in a storied ballpark. I still don't know why it needs to be replaced, but hey, I'm not the fire inspector. I'm looking forward to the Cubs at the Mets on Thursday, when I have tickets to see one of the last games at Shea.

I've already put together the log5 predictions for the playoffs based on current standings, and it's going to be an interesting post-season. Let's put it this way: the top two teams in each league do NOT have an easy path to the World Series. More on that later in the week.

For now, it looks like the Phillies can beat the annually free-falling Mets, but they'll both make the playoffs. Either way, one or the other will be playing the Dodgers, and it won't be as easy a victory as it seems. Same with the Cubs and the eventual Wild Card.

The Angels will not have an easy time with Boston, nor will the Rays have an easy time with the White Sox.

Did I just say the Cubs and the White Sox will be in the playoffs in the same year? Can you say Subway Series? Enjoy the last week!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.597	.570	97	65	5
Boston	.587	.607	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.545	.533	88	74	2
Toronto	.532	.572	86	76	-6
Baltimore	.435	.460	71	91	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.538	.552	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.503	.530	82	80	-4
Kansas City	.449	.425	73	89	4
Detroit	.461	.488	75	87	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.619	.554	100	62	11
Texas	.481	.453	78	84	5
Oakland	.477	.479	77	85	0
Seattle	.368	.397	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.564	.578	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.555	.563	90	72	-1
Florida	.523	.500	85	78	4
Atlanta	.442	.479	72	90	-6
Washington	.372	.378	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
x-Chicago Cubs	.610	.624	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.545	.537	88	74	1
Houston	.529	.476	85	77	9
St. Louis	.516	.522	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.417	.407	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.465	.443	75	87	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.530	84	78	-2
Arizona	.503	.515	82	80	-2
Colorado	.455	.443	74	88	2
San Francisco	.449	.422	73	89	4
San Diego	.391	.422	64	98	-5

8: Can the White Sox Hold On? Will The Phillies Do To The Brewers This Year What They Did To The Mets Last Year?

With the Twins not able to shake the Rays, they are ceding the AL Central to the White Sox. The Dodgers look to be holding off the Diamondbacks. And with the Brewers' pitiful slide the last two weeks, Both the Mets and the Phillies will be making the Playoffs.

This last actually might not be good for the Cubs, because they have to play a much better team the NL Worst's Dodgers to advance to the next round, either the Mets or Phillies. On the other hand, none of the teams would have fared very well with the Cubs' home advantage.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.599	.569	97	65	5
Boston	.584	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.542	.530	88	74	2
Toronto	.535	.574	87	75	-6
Baltimore	.438	.462	71	91	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.556	.561	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.539	.554	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.497	.525	81	81	-5
Kansas City	.448	.424	72	90	4
Detroit	.467	.493	76	86	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.614	.549	99	63	11
Texas	.487	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.474	.478	77	85	-1
Seattle	.370	.398	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.562	.565	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.558	.576	91	71	-3
Florida	.529	.503	86	76	4
Atlanta	.435	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.377	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
x-Chicago Cubs	.608	.622	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.542	.532	88	74	2
Houston	.529	.474	85	77	9
St. Louis	.519	.525	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.416	.407	67	95	1
Cincinnati	.468	.448	76	86	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.529	84	78	-2
Arizona	.497	.507	81	81	-2
Colorado	.461	.450	75	87	2
San Francisco	.448	.423	72	90	4
San Diego	.383	.415	62	100	-5

10: Picture is getting clearer...

OK, what do you want me to say? Will Boston beat Tampa Bay? Well it's very likely considering the Rays are way overperforming. But they've been doing so all year, so what else is new--maybe this is their level.

It really doesn't matter, though, because the Red Sox will still be in the playoffs. The Sox of a paler persuasion should be able to hold off the Gemini, but it is still a tossup, really. Ozzie's crew isn't overperforming like the past, but the Twins are underperforming considerably, so some changes can still occur.

For my buds in NYC, I hope the Mets make it, but it does appear to be going down to the wire. And Torre's trolley Dodgers (where there are none) will most likely make the playoffs.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.596	.562	96	66	6
Boston	.586	.608	95	67	-4
Toronto	.536	.574	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.536	.529	87	75	1
Baltimore	.444	.463	72	90	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.553	.558	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.542	.561	88	74	-3
Cleveland	.493	.525	80	82	-5
Detroit	.470	.494	76	86	-4
Kansas City	.451	.427	73	89	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.612	.548	98	64	10
Texas	.490	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.467	.475	76	86	-1
Seattle	.375	.399	61	101	-4
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.562	.582	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Florida	.526	.499	85	77	4
Atlanta	.438	.479	71	91	-7
Washington	.379	.385	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.609	.628	99	63	-3
Milwaukee	.549	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.471	85	77	9
St. Louis	.520	.522	84	78	0
Cincinnati	.461	.440	74	88	3
Pittsburgh	.418	.409	68	94	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.523	.534	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.458	.449	74	88	1
San Francisco	.444	.418	72	90	4
San Diego	.379	.410	62	100	-5

11: Cubs, Red Sox, Rays as good as clinched, White Sox and Dodgers should do so also; Mets, Phillies, and Brewers Still a Tossup

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.597	.560	96	66	6
Boston	.589	.614	96	66	-4
Toronto	.530	.573	86	76	-7
NY Yankees	.530	.522	86	76	1
Baltimore	.450	.464	73	89	-2
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.560	.566	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.543	.562	88	74	-3
Cleveland	.490	.524	80	82	-5
Detroit	.467	.485	76	86	-3
Kansas City	.444	.415	72	90	5
WEST
x-LA Angels	.613	.548	99	63	11
Texas	.493	.464	80	82	5
Oakland	.467	.476	76	86	-1
Seattle	.380	.408	62	100	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.556	.578	90	72	-4
NY Mets	.553	.559	90	72	-1
Florida	.520	.485	84	78	6
Atlanta	.444	.483	72	90	-6
Washington	.384	.388	62	100	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.611	.632	99	63	-3
Milwaukee	.550	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.533	.485	86	76	8
St. Louis	.520	.523	84	78	-1
Cincinnati	.460	.438	74	88	4
Pittsburgh	.417	.404	67	95	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.523	.540	85	77	-3
Arizona	.493	.507	80	82	-2
Colorado	.454	.448	73	89	1
San Francisco	.450	.418	73	89	5
San Diego	.382	.411	62	100	-5

12: Cubs Have Basically Clinched, Other Races Still Too Close To Call

Although also the Rays and Red Sox have clinched playoff spots, though not the divisional standings. Why do I say those things? Basically, the Cubs have won 90 games, and the prediction for Milwaukee is 89, so it's basically over in the division. I would say that Milwaukee can hold off the Phillies, but that's what the Mets said last year...

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.595	.560	96	66	6
Boston	.593	.615	96	66	-3
Toronto	.533	.575	87	75	-7
NY Yankees	.533	.525	86	76	1
Baltimore	.446	.463	72	90	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.557	.564	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.547	.565	89	73	-3
Cleveland	.487	.522	79	83	-6
Detroit	.470	.486	76	86	-3
Kansas City	.440	.413	71	91	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.617	.554	99	63	10
Texas	.490	.463	79	83	4
Oakland	.463	.470	75	87	-1
Seattle	.383	.410	62	100	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.557	.560	90	72	-1
Philadelphia	.553	.578	90	72	-4
Florida	.517	.482	83	79	6
Atlanta	.447	.484	73	89	-6
Washington	.380	.388	62	100	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.608	.632	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.553	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.537	.487	86	76	8
St. Louis	.523	.527	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.456	.434	74	88	4
Pittsburgh	.420	.406	68	94	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.520	.537	84	78	-3
Arizona	.490	.505	80	82	-2
San Francisco	.453	.420	73	89	5
Colorado	.450	.443	73	89	1
San Diego	.384	.415	63	99	-5

13: New Stat Retraction and Back to the Standings

I apologize for bringing out my new stat before prime-time--I need to work on it some more.

Back to the Predictive Standings, then. Anything interesting left in this season? First, what isn't interesting: Rays, Red Sox, and Angels are in the playoffs--it's just a matter of who plays who in the playoffs; Cubs are still the best in the NL and judging by tonight's no-no by the Zambino, looks like they'll be tough in the playoffs.

What is interesting:

• White Sox or Twins? Both of these teams are literally going to fight this to the end, and possibly a one-game playoff.
• Mets should hold off the Phillies. The only question is whether the Phillies go on a winning streak to match their record with their performance, much like last year at this time.
• Also, Brewers vs. Phillies. The Brewers look like they're fading fast, but if they play to their overperforming level, they should still be able to win the Wild Card. If OPI says anything, it is that the Phillies are underperforming by 4 games and the Brewers are overperforming by 2 games, so this might get more interesting rather than less.
• And in the NL West, even though the stats show LA to win, this is probably far from over with how bad the D'Backs and Dodgers have played all year. Can Torre continue the playoff run he started in New York? It certainly doesn't look like the Yankees will continue that run this year...

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.603	.571	97	65	5
Boston	.588	.610	96	66	-4
Toronto	.537	.576	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.527	.521	85	77	1
Baltimore	.442	.460	72	90	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.562	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.554	.569	90	72	-3
Cleveland	.486	.528	79	83	-7
Detroit	.479	.491	78	84	-2
Kansas City	.432	.402	70	92	5
WEST
x-LA Angels	.615	.553	99	63	10
Texas	.490	.463	79	83	4
Oakland	.459	.467	75	87	-1
Seattle	.388	.412	63	99	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.565	.567	92	70	0
Philadelphia	.547	.573	89	73	-4
Florida	.514	.481	83	79	5
Atlanta	.443	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.378	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.603	.626	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.561	.546	91	71	2
Houston	.544	.495	87	75	8
St. Louis	.527	.531	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.453	.433	73	89	3
Pittsburgh	.419	.405	68	94	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.520	.533	84	78	-2
Arizona	.490	.505	80	82	-2
San Francisco	.453	.418	73	89	6
Colorado	.450	.446	73	89	1
San Diego	.383	.410	62	100	-4