Final Weekend: National League Version

The table below is the Log5 probability (I will explain this in a following post) of the possible results in this weekends NL games with Playoff implications. The three columns are probability of a sweep for each team, for getting two wins, and getting one win.

The Brewers and Mets need to win 2 games and the Mets have the best chance of doing that. The numbers absolutely favor the Phillies winning at least one game and very likely two, and the Mets are second most likely to win. Of course, will the Cubs bring their A-Team this weekend? Given what I saw last night in Shea Stadium, they probably won't. Of course, the B-Team sure didn't disappoint too badly.

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	19.3%	42.3%	30.9%
Brewers	7.5%	30.9%	42.3%
Phillies	30.6%	44.4%	21.5%
Nationals	3.5%	21.5%	44.4%
Mets	15.2%	39.8%	34.8%
Marlins	10.1%	34.8%	39.8%

Ed note: My original post incorrectly showed the Cubs as the home team, and they are in fact the visiting team in Milwaukee. The numbers changed slightly.

3: Twins' Dome Sweeps the Sox Out of First, Mets/Brewers Tied--2 games for Any One of Them Will Put Them in the Playoffs

The Mets great game tonight keeps them in contention with the Brewers after their extra inning affair. Boy--the Pirates are the tonic for what ails you in the NL. And the Twins now have the upper hand over the White Sox. This is going to be a great weekend for baseball!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.604	.574	98	64	5
z-Boston	.591	.609	96	66	-3
NY Yankees	.547	.533	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.571	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.547	.557	89	73	-2
Chicago Sox	.544	.554	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.497	.526	81	81	-5
Detroit	.456	.480	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.620	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.367	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.553	.559	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.608	.622	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.542	90	72	2
Houston	.532	.480	86	76	8
St. Louis	.522	.529	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.465	.442	75	87	4
Pittsburgh	.409	.403	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.525	.542	85	77	-3
Arizona	.497	.506	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.455	75	87	2
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.386	.412	63	99	-4

Tied 6-6 in the 9th with the rain coming down

Last cubs game at shea

4: White Sox Need to Win Two More Games; One-Game Playoff Between Mets & Brewers?

And it would help if they win one of those tomorrow against the Twins or there will be no chance for a Subway Series this year, just in time for the 102nd anniversary of the first one (Cubs vs. Sox in 1906).

And interestingly, the Phillies should still win the NL East, and it looks like a tie now between the Brewers and hapless Mets (subject of a special post from the game tomorrow at Shea Stadium). The Cubs are practically in the weird position to pick their opponent for the NLCS.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.608	.576	98	64	5
z-Boston	.589	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.551	.537	89	73	2
Toronto	.525	.567	85	77	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.548	.555	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.544	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.529	81	81	-5
Detroit	.452	.479	73	89	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.611	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.551	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.529	.479	85	77	8
St. Louis	.519	.523	84	78	-1
Cincinnati	.468	.443	76	86	4
Pittsburgh	.411	.405	67	95	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.513	81	81	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

5: All the Phillies Met at a Brewer-y; White Sox Have Twins?

There's really only one race in the NL, but with two parts: Phillies over Mets, Mets over Brewers. I think the Brewers are going to come up short based on who they have to play over the weekend, but it should still be interesting.

In the AL, it's just one race, Sox vs. Twins. The Sox should be able to eke it out, but the Twins are not going down easy. This closeness is probably the one game of difference Carlos Quentin's injury has wrought.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.605	.573	98	64	5
z-Boston	.586	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.548	.534	89	73	2
Toronto	.529	.570	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.427	.456	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.551	.556	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.541	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.503	.530	82	80	-4
Detroit	.455	.483	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.456	.431	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.580	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.554	.562	90	72	-1
Florida	.516	.495	83	79	3
Atlanta	.443	.477	72	90	-6
Washington	.376	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.609	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.548	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.475	85	77	8
St. Louis	.516	.522	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.414	.406	67	95	1
Cincinnati	.471	.446	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.503	.514	82	80	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

6: The Mets? Ouch--But They'll, uh, Make It!

The White Sox, the Dodgers, and the Mets only need to win two more games to effectively clinch the playoffs. I still have egg on my face from making that call for the Mets last year, but I'm sure they'll be able to do it given their stats.

The Red Sox and Phillies will both effectively clinch with one more win, but barring a monstrous collapse, both will be in the playoffs. Actually, in a preview of those, Boston is by far the scariest team to face, and the Angels do have something to worry about. In this table (without my log5 win probability calculated completely, yet), note that the Sox are underperforming by 4 games, while the Angels are OVERperforming by 11. That's an amazing number and one that I have not seen in a first place team at the end of the season in the 5 years I've been doing this. Is it the Angels' great relief, namely Frankie K? Great managing? I don't know, but if I was a betting man, I would put money on Boston to take them out in the first round.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.571	97	65	5
Boston	.583	.606	95	67	-4
NY Yankees	.545	.533	88	74	2
Toronto	.532	.572	86	76	-6
Baltimore	.432	.459	70	92	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.538	.552	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.506	.531	82	80	-4
Kansas City	.452	.428	73	89	4
Detroit	.458	.486	74	88	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.622	.554	100	62	11
Oakland	.481	.480	78	84	0
Texas	.478	.453	77	85	4
Seattle	.365	.397	59	103	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.567	.581	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.439	.476	71	91	-6
Washington	.372	.378	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.613	.626	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.545	.537	88	74	1
Houston	.529	.476	85	77	9
St. Louis	.513	.520	83	79	-1
Pittsburgh	.417	.407	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.468	.445	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.530	84	78	-2
Arizona	.506	.517	82	80	-2
Colorado	.455	.443	74	88	2
San Francisco	.449	.422	73	89	4
San Diego	.391	.422	64	98	-5