White Sox Vs. Twins in One-Game Playoff Tomorrow--Who Wins?

Based on the fact that White Sox are at home tomorrow, where they sport a lofty 0.643 pythagorean winning percentage, and that the Twins will bring their less-than-stellar 0.450 pythagorean road winning percentage, the Sox have a 69% chance of facing the Rays on Thursday, using the log5 win probability.

White Sox Have Good Chance to Tie for the NL Central Title Tomorrow

The White Sox have a 67% chance of beating the Tigers tomorrow and taking this into a Tuesday one-game playoff with the Twins. Very cool.

Today's Win Probabilities for the Mets, Brewers, White Sox and Twins

It all comes down to one day, one game, to determine two divisional races.

The Mets have a 54% chance of winning their game; the Brewers only a 42% of winning theirs (based on log5, as explained yesterday). For the Brewers to win the Wild Card today, we multiply their odds of winning to the odds of the Mets losing, then vice versa for the Mets to win it:

Brewers, 42% x (1-54%) = 20%

Mets, 54% x (1-42%) = 31%

Tie Today, either by both winning or both losing, (42% x 54%) + ((1 - 42%) x (1 - 54%)) = 49%

As of now, the Mets and Marlins are tied 0-0 in the 3rd, while the Cubs have taken 1-0 lead in the first.

As for the Twins and White Sox, their situation is a little different. Two things have to happen for the White Sox to win the division--they have to win and the Twins lose, then play a one-game playoff. Whereas the Twins just need to hold serve:

Twins, 74% chance to win division (based on log5 win probability to beat the Royals)

White Sox, 70% x (1 - 74%) = 18% (Sox win AND Twins lose) just to tie for the NL Central

As of now, Sox lead 3-1 over Cleveland in the 3rd, and Twins/Royals 0-0.

Who do the odds favor to reach the post-season, then? Well, Twins and Mets have the better chances to outlast their opponents, though it will be much harder for the Mets.

And just a side note to Mets' fans--this team has lost Billy Wagner, John Maine and Ryan Church for extended portions of the season, long enough to have probably cost them the division. That they are even in this situation is a testament to the team (players and manager) in overcoming these obstacles. With those three playing the full season, they are about equal to the Cubs in performance.

UPDATE and OOOPS!: With the White Sox win today, they force their remaining game to be played--I hadn't taken that into account. So the Twins are done, and now have to wait until tomorrow to see if the tie happens or they win.

Fun With Probabilities: Brewers/Twins have best shot at postseason

I'm sure every one of my 34 regular readers (according to Google Analytics!) went immediately to their trusty Texas Instruments TI-35 calculators and used my probabilities from yesterdays' posts to calculate overall odds of making the post season for their favorite teams.

You mean you didn't?

OK, then, let's take a look from the spreadsheet. The beauty of probabilities, statistically speaking is that they can be added, subtracted and multiplied to come up with odds of combinations and odds of mutual exclusivity, among the many other possibilities. Here, we'll really look at the combinatorial property.

Before I delve into this, I want to point out that the best description of what I'm doing comes from DiamondMind Baseball. I first posted my playoff version of Bill James Log5 theorem in 2005. What I will be doing in the playoffs is exactly what they describe. You can also find my original description on BigShouldersSports, where I used to occasionally contribute. In essence, I take the home team's winning percentage at home vs. the away teams road winning percentage, all using the pythagorean expectations formula as used during the season, to compute a probability of victory in each game of the series. I then use the combinatorial mathematics to come up with the odds of sweeping, winning two games, or winning just one for each team. As you will see in the playoffs, this also will take into account all five or seven games.

For now, though, we've already had one game, so the odds have changed a little. Looking at the numbers for the Brewers, they have a 49% chance of beating the Cubs twice (since they won last night). The Mets have only a 29% chance of winning two games. The Brewers also have a 33% of winning one game, Mets have a 50% of doing so, facing easier competition. If both teams win one game or both teams win two games, then they end up tied, so we add up both of those probabilities for each team and multiply to get the odds of this happening, which is 64%.

But unfortunately, for the Mets, because they lost yesterday, they do not have the ability to sweep their series and will therefore have to hope that the Brewers will lose at least one game. Otherwise, the chances of the Brewers winning the Wild Card are 59% (odds of sweeping plus odds of winning two games plus odds of winning one game while the Mets lose two plus Mets losing one plus Mets being swept). Those same odds in reverse, i.e. for the Mets to win the WC, are 41%.

If you're wondering why some of those numbers don't total one hundred, it's because these possibilities are mutually exclusive, meaning they exist on their own (this is something I'm sure my regular visitors already know, but I include it in case I get some new visitors that might not). That is not true, though, for the Mets probability (P) of winning, that is exactly 41% because it is calculated 100% (Mets OR Brewers win P) minus 59% (Brewers win P).

Calculating the same for the White Sox and Twins, we get, respectively, 43% and 57%. Best way to check a probability is to do a gut-level check: Twins are playing the Royals, who are the worst team in the league, whereas the Sox are playing the Indians, which are in third place in the division. So the Sox have a tougher schedule.

2: Dead Heat in the AL Central; Brewers Back In the Driver's Seat

Nothing I can add beyond the title--will be interesting.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.572	97	65	5
z-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.531	.573	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.421	.452	68	94	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	88	74	-1
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.527	81	81	-4
Detroit	.459	.482	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.463	.441	75	87	3
WEST
*-LA Angels	.619	.545	100	62	12
Texas	.488	.466	79	83	3
Oakland	.472	.470	76	86	0
Seattle	.369	.402	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.550	.556	89	73	-1
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	3
Atlanta	.444	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.371	.379	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	90	72	2
Houston	.535	.481	86	76	9
St. Louis	.525	.530	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	3
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	-3
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.463	.454	75	87	1
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	-4

Updated, and Now, AL, too

Updated probabilities, plus I've finally included the White Sox and Twins. So how does it look for our finalists, some of whom will go home with consolation prizes (a higher draft pick next summer?).

Important places to look below: the Brewers have an 18% chance to sweep the Cubs, but even if they win only two, their chances of winning two now is almost 50/50. That is in stark contrast to the Mets who have only a 50/50 chance of winning ONE game. The Phillies have practically clinched, so they're not even in the equation anymore. If the Brewers win one more game, that will probably knock the Mets off (sorry, Mets fans).

I think I have to say sorry to White Sox fans also: they have to win the next two games to guarantee a tie, whereas the Twins, winning two games, will win the division. In the immortal words of The Jam, "Here Comes The Weekend"!

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	0.0%	33.1%	48.9%
Brewers	18.1%	48.9%	33.1%
Phillies	45.4%	43.9%	10.6%
Nationals	0.0%	10.6%	43.9%
Mets	0.0%	28.6%	49.8%
Marlins	21.6%	49.8%	28.6%
White Sox	0.0%	48.2%	42.4%
Indians	9.3%	42.4%	48.2%
Twins	0.0%	55.2%	38.2%
KC	6.6%	38.2%	55.2%

4: White Sox Need to Win Two More Games; One-Game Playoff Between Mets & Brewers?

And it would help if they win one of those tomorrow against the Twins or there will be no chance for a Subway Series this year, just in time for the 102nd anniversary of the first one (Cubs vs. Sox in 1906).

And interestingly, the Phillies should still win the NL East, and it looks like a tie now between the Brewers and hapless Mets (subject of a special post from the game tomorrow at Shea Stadium). The Cubs are practically in the weird position to pick their opponent for the NLCS.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.608	.576	98	64	5
z-Boston	.589	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.551	.537	89	73	2
Toronto	.525	.567	85	77	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.548	.555	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.544	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.529	81	81	-5
Detroit	.452	.479	73	89	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.611	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.551	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.529	.479	85	77	8
St. Louis	.519	.523	84	78	-1
Cincinnati	.468	.443	76	86	4
Pittsburgh	.411	.405	67	95	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.513	81	81	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

5: All the Phillies Met at a Brewer-y; White Sox Have Twins?

There's really only one race in the NL, but with two parts: Phillies over Mets, Mets over Brewers. I think the Brewers are going to come up short based on who they have to play over the weekend, but it should still be interesting.

In the AL, it's just one race, Sox vs. Twins. The Sox should be able to eke it out, but the Twins are not going down easy. This closeness is probably the one game of difference Carlos Quentin's injury has wrought.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.605	.573	98	64	5
z-Boston	.586	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.548	.534	89	73	2
Toronto	.529	.570	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.427	.456	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.551	.556	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.541	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.503	.530	82	80	-4
Detroit	.455	.483	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.456	.431	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.580	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.554	.562	90	72	-1
Florida	.516	.495	83	79	3
Atlanta	.443	.477	72	90	-6
Washington	.376	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.609	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.548	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.475	85	77	8
St. Louis	.516	.522	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.414	.406	67	95	1
Cincinnati	.471	.446	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.503	.514	82	80	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

19: The Suspense Is Building, Though Really Only for the Twins/White Sox, Mets/Phillies and D-Backs/Dodgers

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.603	.569	97	65	6
Boston	.592	.613	96	66	-3
Toronto	.535	.575	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.531	.530	86	76	0
Baltimore	.447	.467	73	89	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.563	.570	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.545	.554	89	73	-1
Cleveland	.489	.533	80	82	-7
Detroit	.483	.490	78	84	-1
Kansas City	.430	.403	69	93	4
WEST
LA Angels	.606	.544	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.456	78	84	5
Oakland	.458	.472	74	88	-2
Seattle	.394	.417	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.545	.574	89	73	-5
Florida	.503	.476	81	81	5
Atlanta	.431	.477	71	91	-8
Washington	.389	.384	63	99	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.601	.627	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.573	.554	93	69	3
St. Louis	.538	.539	87	75	0
Houston	.531	.482	85	77	8
Cincinnati	.448	.431	72	90	3
Pittsburgh	.423	.406	68	94	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.510	.522	83	79	-2
Arizona	.500	.509	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.456	75	87	1
San Francisco	.437	.409	70	92	5
San Diego	.385	.412	63	99	-4

What Does the Loss of Carlos Quentin Mean to the White Sox' Playoff Chances?

According to BaseballProspectus, Carlos Quentin has a WARP of 7.4. For those of you not familiar with WARP, it stands for Wins Above Replacement Player. In Quentin's case, it would mean that he will help his team win 7.4 more games than your average left fielder, or in the case of the Sox, more than, say, Griffey. With only 22 games left in the season for the Pale Hose, that means that his injury will cost the team approximately one game in the standings.

As you see below in today's predictive standings, the Sox have a two game lead on the Twins, so dropping that prediction by one basically means that it shouldn't hurt them too badly, but it definitely means they don't have any wiggle room and need to continue to play at their pythagorean expectation, or the Twins will be able to tie or pass them in the standings by the end of the season. Good luck.