10: Picture is getting clearer...

OK, what do you want me to say? Will Boston beat Tampa Bay? Well it's very likely considering the Rays are way overperforming. But they've been doing so all year, so what else is new--maybe this is their level.

It really doesn't matter, though, because the Red Sox will still be in the playoffs. The Sox of a paler persuasion should be able to hold off the Gemini, but it is still a tossup, really. Ozzie's crew isn't overperforming like the past, but the Twins are underperforming considerably, so some changes can still occur.

For my buds in NYC, I hope the Mets make it, but it does appear to be going down to the wire. And Torre's trolley Dodgers (where there are none) will most likely make the playoffs.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.596	.562	96	66	6
Boston	.586	.608	95	67	-4
Toronto	.536	.574	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.536	.529	87	75	1
Baltimore	.444	.463	72	90	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.553	.558	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.542	.561	88	74	-3
Cleveland	.493	.525	80	82	-5
Detroit	.470	.494	76	86	-4
Kansas City	.451	.427	73	89	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.612	.548	98	64	10
Texas	.490	.457	79	83	5
Oakland	.467	.475	76	86	-1
Seattle	.375	.399	61	101	-4
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.562	.582	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Florida	.526	.499	85	77	4
Atlanta	.438	.479	71	91	-7
Washington	.379	.385	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.609	.628	99	63	-3
Milwaukee	.549	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.471	85	77	9
St. Louis	.520	.522	84	78	0
Cincinnati	.461	.440	74	88	3
Pittsburgh	.418	.409	68	94	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.523	.534	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.458	.449	74	88	1
San Francisco	.444	.418	72	90	4
San Diego	.379	.410	62	100	-5

Playoff "Real World" Magic Number, next up to clinch: Cubs

AL
East	W	PW	RW Magic #
Tampa Bay	87	97	9
Boston	85	95	13
Central
Chicago Sox	81	90	9
Minnesota	80	89	11
West
x-LA Angels	88	97	0
Wild Card
Boston	85	95	5
Minnesota	80	89	16
NL
East
NY Mets	82	92	8
Philadelphia	80	89	13
Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16
West
LA Dodgers	75	83	6
Arizona	71	80	13
Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	80	89	12

16: Status Quo--Rays, Red & White Sox, Angels in ALCS; Mets, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers in NLCS

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.604	.568	97	65	6
Boston	.586	.611	95	67	-4
Toronto	.538	.579	88	74	-7
NY Yankees	.527	.525	85	77	0
Baltimore	.444	.467	72	90	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.559	.564	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.552	.561	90	72	-1
Cleveland	.493	.532	81	81	-6
Kansas City	.424	.396	68	94	4
Detroit	.479	.491	78	84	-2
WEST
x-LA Angels	.607	.548	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.459	78	84	4
Oakland	.462	.471	75	87	-1
Seattle	.396	.416	64	98	-3
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.566	.564	92	70	0
Philadelphia	.541	.568	88	74	-4
Florida	.507	.479	82	80	4
Atlanta	.438	.481	72	90	-7
Washington	.384	.384	62	100	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.600	.626	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.568	.552	92	70	3
Houston	.541	.490	87	75	8
St. Louis	.538	.539	87	75	0
Pittsburgh	.414	.401	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.452	.433	73	89	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.514	.526	83	79	-2
Arizona	.490	.505	80	82	-2
Colorado	.459	.454	74	88	1
San Francisco	.448	.415	72	90	5
San Diego	.384	.409	63	99	-4

19: The Suspense Is Building, Though Really Only for the Twins/White Sox, Mets/Phillies and D-Backs/Dodgers

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.603	.569	97	65	6
Boston	.592	.613	96	66	-3
Toronto	.535	.575	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.531	.530	86	76	0
Baltimore	.447	.467	73	89	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.563	.570	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.545	.554	89	73	-1
Cleveland	.489	.533	80	82	-7
Detroit	.483	.490	78	84	-1
Kansas City	.430	.403	69	93	4
WEST
LA Angels	.606	.544	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.456	78	84	5
Oakland	.458	.472	74	88	-2
Seattle	.394	.417	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.545	.574	89	73	-5
Florida	.503	.476	81	81	5
Atlanta	.431	.477	71	91	-8
Washington	.389	.384	63	99	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.601	.627	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.573	.554	93	69	3
St. Louis	.538	.539	87	75	0
Houston	.531	.482	85	77	8
Cincinnati	.448	.431	72	90	3
Pittsburgh	.423	.406	68	94	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.510	.522	83	79	-2
Arizona	.500	.509	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.456	75	87	1
San Francisco	.437	.409	70	92	5
San Diego	.385	.412	63	99	-4

20: Things are Getting Interesting

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.607	.570	98	64	6
Boston	.589	.610	96	66	-3
NY Yankees	.535	.533	87	75	0
Toronto	.532	.574	87	75	-7
Baltimore	.447	.467	73	89	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.567	.571	92	70	-1
Minnesota	.549	.555	89	73	-1
Cleveland	.486	.532	80	82	-7
Kansas City	.433	.405	69	93	5
Detroit	.479	.488	78	84	-2
WEST
LA Angels	.603	.543	96	66	10
Texas	.490	.459	79	83	5
Oakland	.458	.472	74	88	-2
Seattle	.390	.414	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.560	.564	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.546	.574	89	73	-5
Florida	.507	.477	82	80	5
Atlanta	.434	.479	71	91	-7
Washington	.385	.381	62	100	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.606	.628	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.577	.561	93	69	3
St. Louis	.535	.538	87	75	0
Houston	.528	.481	85	77	8
Cincinnati	.444	.430	72	90	2
Pittsburgh	.426	.408	69	93	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.507	.520	82	80	-2
Arizona	.504	.511	82	80	-1
Colorado	.469	.457	76	86	2
San Francisco	.433	.403	69	93	5
San Diego	.380	.404	62	100	-4

What Does the Loss of Carlos Quentin Mean to the White Sox' Playoff Chances?

According to BaseballProspectus, Carlos Quentin has a WARP of 7.4. For those of you not familiar with WARP, it stands for Wins Above Replacement Player. In Quentin's case, it would mean that he will help his team win 7.4 more games than your average left fielder, or in the case of the Sox, more than, say, Griffey. With only 22 games left in the season for the Pale Hose, that means that his injury will cost the team approximately one game in the standings.

As you see below in today's predictive standings, the Sox have a two game lead on the Twins, so dropping that prediction by one basically means that it shouldn't hurt them too badly, but it definitely means they don't have any wiggle room and need to continue to play at their pythagorean expectation, or the Twins will be able to tie or pass them in the standings by the end of the season. Good luck.