The Mets have a 54% chance of winning their game; the Brewers only a 42% of winning theirs (based on log5, as explained yesterday). For the Brewers to win the Wild Card today, we multiply their odds of winning to the odds of the Mets losing, then vice versa for the Mets to win it:
Brewers, 42% x (1-54%) = 20%
Mets, 54% x (1-42%) = 31%
Tie Today, either by both winning or both losing, (42% x 54%) + ((1 - 42%) x (1 - 54%)) = 49%
As of now, the Mets and Marlins are tied 0-0 in the 3rd, while the Cubs have taken 1-0 lead in the first.
As for the Twins and White Sox, their situation is a little different. Two things have to happen for the White Sox to win the division--they have to win and the Twins lose, then play a one-game playoff. Whereas the Twins just need to hold serve:
Twins, 74% chance to win division (based on log5 win probability to beat the Royals)
White Sox, 70% x (1 - 74%) = 18% (Sox win AND Twins lose) just to tie for the NL Central
As of now, Sox lead 3-1 over Cleveland in the 3rd, and Twins/Royals 0-0.
Who do the odds favor to reach the post-season, then? Well, Twins and Mets have the better chances to outlast their opponents, though it will be much harder for the Mets.
And just a side note to Mets' fans--this team has lost Billy Wagner, John Maine and Ryan Church for extended portions of the season, long enough to have probably cost them the division. That they are even in this situation is a testament to the team (players and manager) in overcoming these obstacles. With those three playing the full season, they are about equal to the Cubs in performance.
UPDATE and OOOPS!: With the White Sox win today, they force their remaining game to be played--I hadn't taken that into account. So the Twins are done, and now have to wait until tomorrow to see if the tie happens or they win.
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