White Sox Vs. Twins in One-Game Playoff Tomorrow--Who Wins?

Based on the fact that White Sox are at home tomorrow, where they sport a lofty 0.643 pythagorean winning percentage, and that the Twins will bring their less-than-stellar 0.450 pythagorean road winning percentage, the Sox have a 69% chance of facing the Rays on Thursday, using the log5 win probability.

White Sox Have Good Chance to Tie for the NL Central Title Tomorrow

The White Sox have a 67% chance of beating the Tigers tomorrow and taking this into a Tuesday one-game playoff with the Twins. Very cool.

What Does the Loss of Carlos Quentin Mean to the White Sox' Playoff Chances?

According to BaseballProspectus, Carlos Quentin has a WARP of 7.4. For those of you not familiar with WARP, it stands for Wins Above Replacement Player. In Quentin's case, it would mean that he will help his team win 7.4 more games than your average left fielder, or in the case of the Sox, more than, say, Griffey. With only 22 games left in the season for the Pale Hose, that means that his injury will cost the team approximately one game in the standings.

As you see below in today's predictive standings, the Sox have a two game lead on the Twins, so dropping that prediction by one basically means that it shouldn't hurt them too badly, but it definitely means they don't have any wiggle room and need to continue to play at their pythagorean expectation, or the Twins will be able to tie or pass them in the standings by the end of the season. Good luck.

22: White Sox and Mets Solidify the Quicksand of First Place They're Currently In...

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.616	.575	99	63	7
Boston	.590	.612	96	66	-4
NY Yankees	.536	.532	87	75	1
Toronto	.525	.571	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.453	.475	74	88	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.561	.566	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.550	.552	89	73	0
Cleveland	.486	.529	80	82	-7
Detroit	.479	.492	78	84	-2
Kansas City	.432	.406	69	93	4
WEST
LA Angels	.612	.551	98	64	10
Texas	.489	.458	79	83	5
Oakland	.450	.460	73	89	-2
Seattle	.388	.414	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.564	.567	91	71	0
Philadelphia	.543	.572	89	73	-5
Florida	.507	.476	81	81	5
Atlanta	.433	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.383	.380	62	100	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.607	.634	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.571	.560	92	70	2
St. Louis	.536	.539	87	75	-1
Houston	.529	.480	85	77	8
Pittsburgh	.424	.403	68	94	3
Cincinnati	.443	.426	71	91	3
WEST
Arizona	.511	.521	83	79	-2
LA Dodgers	.500	.510	81	81	-2
Colorado	.468	.457	76	86	2
San Francisco	.432	.407	69	93	4
San Diego	.386	.405	63	99	-3

23: Boston Red Sox Closing the Gap on Tampa Bay, Mets Still Hanging On, Arizona is Picture of Mediocrity

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.613	.574	98	64	6
Boston	.590	.612	96	66	-4
NY Yankees	.540	.534	87	75	1
Toronto	.522	.564	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.453	.475	74	88	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.561	.566	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.554	.559	90	72	-1
Cleveland	.486	.529	80	82	-7
Detroit	.482	.496	78	84	-2
Kansas City	.423	.402	68	94	4
WEST
LA Angels	.609	.547	97	65	10
Texas	.489	.458	79	83	5
Oakland	.457	.463	74	88	-1
Seattle	.388	.414	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.564	.567	91	71	0
Philadelphia	.543	.572	89	73	-5
Florida	.507	.476	81	81	5
Atlanta	.429	.476	70	92	-8
Washington	.386	.381	62	100	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.607	.634	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.576	.563	93	69	2
St. Louis	.536	.539	87	75	-1
Houston	.529	.480	85	77	8
Pittsburgh	.428	.403	69	93	4
Cincinnati	.439	.423	71	91	3
WEST
Arizona	.511	.521	83	79	-2
LA Dodgers	.500	.510	81	81	-2
Colorado	.468	.457	76	86	2
San Francisco	.432	.407	69	93	4
San Diego	.381	.402	62	100	-3

25: Predictions Set, But 4 Teams Still Undecided.

Yes, this is it, my two-dozen or so loyal readers (thanks for filling me in, Google Analytics!): these are the predictions for the end of the baseball season leading into the playoffs. In the AL, it will be Tampa Bay playing either the White Sox or the Twins, who might go down to a final playoff game to see who will get to lose to the remarkable Rays, and the Red Sox, who could upset, slightly, the LA Angels (OPI of 10!). In the NL, The Cubs will host the Arizona (again?!) and the Brewers will be the guests of the Mets or Phillies (who might also go down to a final playoff game to get killed by the Brew Crew).

The Phillies continue to underperform as the Jerry Manuel 9 play almost exactly at their level. It's so hard to say which of these will survive to the end of the season. Will Manuel have an effect that Willie Randolph did not and get his team through? Will the Phillies start to play up to their potential like they did at the very end of last season to sneak past the forlorn Mets?

This is going to be quite a photo-finish, and I look forward to it! If I was a betting man, I'd have to say the NL East representative will be the Mets, and the NL Central champ will be the White Sox, in splitting my stats with gut and OPI (otherwise, it would be Phillies, White Sox).

Bring it on!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.622	.583	100	62	6
Boston	.584	.605	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.533	.528	86	76	1
Toronto	.515	.562	85	77	-8
Baltimore	.460	.484	75	87	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.562	.570	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.562	.562	91	71	0
Cleveland	.485	.526	80	82	-7
Kansas City	.419	.399	67	95	3
Detroit	.482	.495	78	84	-2
WEST
LA Angels	.610	.549	97	65	10
Texas	.482	.456	77	85	4
Oakland	.460	.465	75	87	-1
Seattle	.394	.416	64	98	-3
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.558	.562	90	72	-1
Philadelphia	.543	.571	89	73	-5
Atlanta	.428	.475	70	92	-8
Florida	.507	.475	81	81	5
Washington	.384	.381	62	100	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.616	.640	100	62	-4
Milwaukee	.584	.570	94	68	2
St. Louis	.536	.536	87	75	0
Houston	.522	.475	83	79	8
Pittsburgh	.419	.401	67	95	3
Cincinnati	.445	.424	72	90	3
WEST
Arizona	.511	.525	83	79	-2
LA Dodgers	.493	.505	80	82	-2
Colorado	.468	.461	76	86	1
San Francisco	.431	.400	69	93	5
San Diego	.387	.405	63	99	-3

Two Tankees On Base and a Third at 2B at Fenway

This is beautiful Fenway Park and the first time I got to see a game there. This adds to my collection of ballgames at old historic ballparks: Yankee Stadium, Cleveland Municipal Stadium, Brigg's Field (Tigers Stadium), County Stadium, Wrigley Field and the original Comiskey Park (the latter two from where I was born and raised). I have to say that both Fenway and Wrigley are the best ballparks in existence today.

This picture shows Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia on base, just before Ellsbury scored on a Youkilis hit. Alexei Ramirez is at second. They are on my fantasy baseball team, the currently 2nd place, Tankees. Stats are great to discuss and dissect, but actually seeing the National Pastime in a ballpark that beautiful between two contending teams, both among my favorites, is a moment to treasure.