Yankees Lose! Yankees Win! Yankees ? ? ? ? ? Yes It Could Go 7...

Fret not, Yankees fans: Log 5 Probability is on your side! After a home split leaving the Series at 1-1, the Yankees advantage has only slightly moved down from the first day. A home loss basically dropped their win probability for the Series from 56% to 54%.

Additionally, if you look at the Yankees' winning percentage on the road vs. the Phillies' percentage at home--all of a sudden, home not so sweet home for the Phanatics: .571 vs. .553. I will admit, though, that the number as calculated does NOT take into account the fact that the Yanks winning percentage during the season was accomplished with the DH, not the pitcher, as will be the case in Philadelphia. But it still goes to show that the Yankees are by no means down away from home.

Of the remaining scenarios, 5-game, 6-game or full 7 game Series, the Yankees have the advantage in all of them by roughly 3%-5%, with the most likely outcome being a 7-game Series in which the Yankees have about a 3% chance better than the Phillies to win.

World Series	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Next Game only
Phillies	0.553	0.592	46%	48%
Yankees	0.621	0.571	54%	52%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small. See my post from last year about what it is and how it works.

2009 World Series in a Statshell: New York is Probably Going to Win

Hello fellow baseball travellers, and welcome to the World Series! My friends who favor the Cubs are probably not bothering with this series, but my fellow New Yorkers have brought out their Yankees paraphernalia in full force: World Series-mania has hit the Big Apple with a vengeance. Will A-Rod become the new Mr. October? Will Derek Jeter continue his mastery of November? Will Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett finally bring peace to the long-suffering Gothamites (well, they haven't won either in this century or in this millennium after all...)?

Well, the City of Brothelly Love will certainly try to keep that suffering going longer. What do the numbers say? Well, Yankee's fans, this is your year. I almost didn't even bother running the numbers, thinking it was extremely lop-sided. It actually isn't. While the Bronx Bombers have a 56% chance of winning the Series, that is certainly not the highest probability I've ever seen. I was surprised to find that the Phillies have an excellent Away record (check out the table below), and that the Yankees are a little vulnerable there. Even though they have a better than 50/50 chance of winning, it's only slightly better.

If the Phillies win the first game, it gives them an immediate 61% of taking the series. Of course if the Yanks win it'll be even more dire for the Sons of the Liberty Bell: New York would have a commanding 70/30 chance to win the Series.

Game on!

World Series	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Phillies	0.553	0.592	44%	5%
Yankees	0.621	0.571	56%	8%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small. See my post from last year about what it is and how it works.

As It Stands: If the Season Started With the Rosters Today...

Welcome back, loyal readers! The winter is almost over, and we're close to the beginning of the baseball season (I know because the clock just moved forward one hour and daylight lasts until 7pm).

Every year I look at how the Win Shares (as described by Bill James, and calculated for the season by The Hardball Times) have changed via trades and free agent signings. Since three Win Shares equal one win, a team that gains 6 Win Shares by signing free agent would therefore win two more games than they would had they not signed anyone. I go one step further: since a team would likely replace a departing player with at least an average player, I prefer to use Hardball Times' Win Shares Above Bench, meaning that the player in question is worth that many more wins over a replacement average player.

Let's look at an example: the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies. In the offseason, they've done the following, with their accompanying Win Shares gained/lost:

• Lost Pat Burrell (9 WSAB)
• Signed Raul Ibanez (11 WSAB)
• Signed Chan Ho Park (3 WSAB)
• a bunch of releases and signings that net to roughly zero

The Phillies adjusted Pythagorean Record last year was 91 wins. Subtract Burrell's 9 WSAB, add in Ibanez (11) and Park (3) which equals 14-9=5, divide by 3 to get the additional wins, in this case 2. Therefore, based on last year's Phillies' team doing roughly the same all else being equal would win two more games because of the roster changes. I followed this same basic process for all the teams, and the result is the following table:

AL
EAST	2008 WP	2008 P WP	P W+new	P L	Win Shares Net
Tampa Bay	.600	.572	99	63	2
Boston	.588	.600	98	64	2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	92	70	3
Toronto	.531	.573	82	80	-4
Baltimore	.421	.452	69	93	1
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	90	72	2
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	0
Cleveland	.500	.527	83	79	2
Detroit	.459	.482	76	86	1
Kansas City	.463	.441	74	88	0
WEST
LA Angels	.619	.545	98	64	-2
Oakland	.472	.470	81	81	4
Texas	.488	.466	73	89	-6
Seattle	.369	.402	56	106	-3
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	93	69	2
NY Mets	.550	.556	92	70	3
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	0
Atlanta	.444	.481	76	86	4
Washington	.371	.379	61	101	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	97	65	-1
Houston	.535	.481	85	77	-1
St. Louis	.525	.530	83	79	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	81	81	-9
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	0
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	0
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	1
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	0
Colorado	.463	.454	74	88	-1
San Francisco	.440	.413	74	88	3
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	1

The biggest winner in the AL is Oakland, although unfortunately those 4 games will likely only translate into a 2nd place finish. The biggest loser in that league will be the Rangers. The most interesting story will probably be the AL East, where it looks like Boston and Tampa Bay will again be neck and neck for the season, with the Yankees coming a close 3rd.

The Yankees are interesting: they added Teixeira (13), Sabathia (18), Burnett (8)--a whopping 39 WSAB (or roughly 13 wins above replacement players)! Unfortunately, though, they lost Mussina (13), Abreu (11), and Giambi (6), or 30/3 = 10 games, which you can see shows where they gain 3 games in the standings.

In the NL, the most improved team will be the Braves, but the biggest winner is the Cubs, on the strength of the Brewers being the biggest losers (9 games in the standings!). Losing Sheets (11), Sabathia (13), and on lesser level, Shouse (4) for a total of 28 WSAB lost.

Even with all the changes, the only race that looks like it would change from last year is that the Twins would beat the White Sox by two games.

Keep in mind, that this is using the stats from last season, and while the best predictor of the future is the past, that doesn't mean that it always ends up that way--look at the stock market from last year to this year for case in point.

If there is any more activity prior to the beginning of the season, I will duly note the changes.

13: New Stat Retraction and Back to the Standings

I apologize for bringing out my new stat before prime-time--I need to work on it some more.

Back to the Predictive Standings, then. Anything interesting left in this season? First, what isn't interesting: Rays, Red Sox, and Angels are in the playoffs--it's just a matter of who plays who in the playoffs; Cubs are still the best in the NL and judging by tonight's no-no by the Zambino, looks like they'll be tough in the playoffs.

What is interesting:

• White Sox or Twins? Both of these teams are literally going to fight this to the end, and possibly a one-game playoff.
• Mets should hold off the Phillies. The only question is whether the Phillies go on a winning streak to match their record with their performance, much like last year at this time.
• Also, Brewers vs. Phillies. The Brewers look like they're fading fast, but if they play to their overperforming level, they should still be able to win the Wild Card. If OPI says anything, it is that the Phillies are underperforming by 4 games and the Brewers are overperforming by 2 games, so this might get more interesting rather than less.
• And in the NL West, even though the stats show LA to win, this is probably far from over with how bad the D'Backs and Dodgers have played all year. Can Torre continue the playoff run he started in New York? It certainly doesn't look like the Yankees will continue that run this year...

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.603	.571	97	65	5
Boston	.588	.610	96	66	-4
Toronto	.537	.576	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.527	.521	85	77	1
Baltimore	.442	.460	72	90	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.562	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.554	.569	90	72	-3
Cleveland	.486	.528	79	83	-7
Detroit	.479	.491	78	84	-2
Kansas City	.432	.402	70	92	5
WEST
x-LA Angels	.615	.553	99	63	10
Texas	.490	.463	79	83	4
Oakland	.459	.467	75	87	-1
Seattle	.388	.412	63	99	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.565	.567	92	70	0
Philadelphia	.547	.573	89	73	-4
Florida	.514	.481	83	79	5
Atlanta	.443	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.378	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.603	.626	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.561	.546	91	71	2
Houston	.544	.495	87	75	8
St. Louis	.527	.531	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.453	.433	73	89	3
Pittsburgh	.419	.405	68	94	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.520	.533	84	78	-2
Arizona	.490	.505	80	82	-2
San Francisco	.453	.418	73	89	6
Colorado	.450	.446	73	89	1
San Diego	.383	.410	62	100	-4

16: Status Quo--Rays, Red & White Sox, Angels in ALCS; Mets, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers in NLCS

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.604	.568	97	65	6
Boston	.586	.611	95	67	-4
Toronto	.538	.579	88	74	-7
NY Yankees	.527	.525	85	77	0
Baltimore	.444	.467	72	90	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.559	.564	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.552	.561	90	72	-1
Cleveland	.493	.532	81	81	-6
Kansas City	.424	.396	68	94	4
Detroit	.479	.491	78	84	-2
WEST
x-LA Angels	.607	.548	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.459	78	84	4
Oakland	.462	.471	75	87	-1
Seattle	.396	.416	64	98	-3
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.566	.564	92	70	0
Philadelphia	.541	.568	88	74	-4
Florida	.507	.479	82	80	4
Atlanta	.438	.481	72	90	-7
Washington	.384	.384	62	100	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.600	.626	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.568	.552	92	70	3
Houston	.541	.490	87	75	8
St. Louis	.538	.539	87	75	0
Pittsburgh	.414	.401	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.452	.433	73	89	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.514	.526	83	79	-2
Arizona	.490	.505	80	82	-2
Colorado	.459	.454	74	88	1
San Francisco	.448	.415	72	90	5
San Diego	.384	.409	63	99	-4

18: Boston First, Yankees in 4th in the AL East? Dodgers to Survive Into October? Only the Angels Have a Guaranteed Slot...

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Boston	.594	.614	97	65	-3
Tampa Bay	.599	.566	96	66	5
Toronto	.538	.576	88	74	-6
NY Yankees	.528	.522	85	77	1
Baltimore	.451	.474	73	89	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.559	.569	91	71	-2
Minnesota	.545	.554	89	73	-1
Detroit	.486	.494	79	83	-1
Cleveland	.486	.525	79	83	-6
Kansas City	.430	.403	69	93	4
WEST
LA Angels	.608	.552	97	65	9
Texas	.486	.456	78	84	5
Oakland	.455	.468	74	88	-2
Seattle	.394	.417	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.549	.574	89	73	-4
Florida	.500	.474	81	81	4
Atlanta	.431	.477	71	91	-8
Washington	.389	.384	63	99	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.601	.627	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.569	.553	92	70	3
St. Louis	.538	.539	87	75	0
Houston	.535	.483	86	76	8
Cincinnati	.451	.432	73	89	3
Pittsburgh	.420	.406	68	94	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.507	.519	82	80	-2
Arizona	.497	.506	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.456	75	87	1
San Francisco	.441	.412	71	91	5
San Diego	.389	.415	63	99	-4

21: More Races Than We Would Have Thought As We Enter the Last Three Weeks of Play

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.612	.573	98	64	6
Boston	.593	.617	97	65	-4
NY Yankees	.532	.531	86	76	0
Toronto	.529	.572	87	75	-7
Baltimore	.450	.469	73	89	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.564	.571	92	70	-1
Minnesota	.553	.557	90	72	-1
Cleveland	.489	.533	80	82	-7
Kansas City	.429	.403	69	93	4
Detroit	.475	.487	77	85	-2
WEST
LA Angels	.607	.544	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.454	78	84	5
Oakland	.454	.469	74	88	-2
Seattle	.393	.416	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.560	.564	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.546	.574	89	73	-5
Florida	.511	.478	82	80	5
Atlanta	.437	.481	72	90	-7
Washington	.380	.377	62	100	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.603	.627	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.574	.561	93	69	2
St. Louis	.532	.537	86	76	-1
Houston	.525	.479	84	78	7
Cincinnati	.447	.432	72	90	2
Pittsburgh	.429	.408	69	93	3
WEST
Arizona	.507	.515	82	80	-1
LA Dodgers	.504	.516	82	80	-2
Colorado	.472	.459	76	86	2
San Francisco	.429	.402	69	93	4
San Diego	.383	.405	62	100	-3

22: White Sox and Mets Solidify the Quicksand of First Place They're Currently In...

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.616	.575	99	63	7
Boston	.590	.612	96	66	-4
NY Yankees	.536	.532	87	75	1
Toronto	.525	.571	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.453	.475	74	88	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.561	.566	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.550	.552	89	73	0
Cleveland	.486	.529	80	82	-7
Detroit	.479	.492	78	84	-2
Kansas City	.432	.406	69	93	4
WEST
LA Angels	.612	.551	98	64	10
Texas	.489	.458	79	83	5
Oakland	.450	.460	73	89	-2
Seattle	.388	.414	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.564	.567	91	71	0
Philadelphia	.543	.572	89	73	-5
Florida	.507	.476	81	81	5
Atlanta	.433	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.383	.380	62	100	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.607	.634	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.571	.560	92	70	2
St. Louis	.536	.539	87	75	-1
Houston	.529	.480	85	77	8
Pittsburgh	.424	.403	68	94	3
Cincinnati	.443	.426	71	91	3
WEST
Arizona	.511	.521	83	79	-2
LA Dodgers	.500	.510	81	81	-2
Colorado	.468	.457	76	86	2
San Francisco	.432	.407	69	93	4
San Diego	.386	.405	63	99	-3

24: Some Races Tightening Up?

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.618	.578	99	63	6
Boston	.587	.612	96	66	-4
NY Yankees	.536	.531	87	75	1
Toronto	.518	.563	85	77	-7
Baltimore	.457	.476	74	88	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.558	.565	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.558	.560	90	72	0
Cleveland	.489	.531	80	82	-7
Detroit	.478	.494	78	84	-3
Kansas City	.423	.402	68	94	4
WEST
LA Angels	.613	.550	98	64	10
Texas	.486	.458	78	84	5
Oakland	.457	.463	74	88	-1
Seattle	.391	.415	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.561	.562	91	71	0
Philadelphia	.547	.574	89	73	-4
Florida	.504	.474	81	81	5
Atlanta	.432	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.381	.378	62	100	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.612	.637	100	62	-4
Milwaukee	.580	.569	94	68	2
St. Louis	.540	.540	87	75	0
Houston	.525	.477	84	78	8
Pittsburgh	.423	.402	68	94	3
Cincinnati	.442	.424	71	91	3
WEST
Arizona	.507	.520	82	80	-2
LA Dodgers	.496	.509	81	81	-2
Colorado	.471	.462	76	86	2
San Francisco	.428	.400	69	93	4
San Diego	.384	.403	63	99	-3

26: Rays Roll On, Sox and Mets Hold On, Dodgers Fading

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.622	.583	100	62	6
Boston	.581	.603	95	67	-4
NY Yankees	.529	.525	86	76	1
Toronto	.515	.562	85	77	-8
Baltimore	.463	.486	76	86	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.566	.574	92	70	-1
Minnesota	.562	.562	91	71	0
Detroit	.485	.498	79	83	-2
Kansas City	.419	.399	67	95	3
Cleveland	.481	.523	79	83	-7
WEST
LA Angels	.610	.549	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.459	78	84	4
Oakland	.460	.465	75	87	-1
Seattle	.390	.410	64	98	-3
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Philadelphia	.547	.574	89	73	-4
Atlanta	.431	.476	71	91	-7
Florida	.504	.474	81	81	5
Washington	.380	.378	61	101	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.620	.643	101	61	-4
Milwaukee	.588	.572	95	67	3
St. Louis	.540	.538	87	75	0
Houston	.518	.473	83	79	7
Pittsburgh	.419	.401	67	95	3
Cincinnati	.445	.424	72	90	3
WEST
Arizona	.507	.524	83	79	-3
LA Dodgers	.489	.503	80	82	-2
Colorado	.464	.458	75	87	1
San Francisco	.434	.403	69	93	5
San Diego	.390	.407	64	98	-3

27

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.619	.579	99	63	7
Boston	.585	.605	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.533	.529	86	76	1
Toronto	.511	.559	84	78	-8
Baltimore	.467	.490	76	86	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.563	.573	91	71	-2
Minnesota	.559	.557	90	72	0
Cleveland	.485	.524	80	82	-6
Kansas City	.422	.400	68	94	4
Detroit	.481	.496	78	84	-2
WEST
LA Angels	.615	.550	98	64	10
Texas	.482	.459	77	85	4
Oakland	.463	.472	75	87	-1
Seattle	.385	.408	63	99	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.551	.558	89	73	-1
Philadelphia	.544	.573	89	73	-5
Atlanta	.434	.479	71	91	-7
Florida	.507	.477	81	81	5
Washington	.375	.373	61	101	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.625	.645	102	60	-3
Milwaukee	.585	.567	94	68	3
St. Louis	.544	.540	88	74	1
Houston	.515	.471	82	80	7
Pittsburgh	.422	.405	68	94	3
Cincinnati	.441	.419	71	91	4
WEST
Arizona	.511	.530	83	79	-3
LA Dodgers	.485	.496	79	83	-2
Colorado	.467	.458	75	87	1
San Francisco	.437	.407	70	92	5
San Diego	.385	.406	63	99	-3

28 Days Left: Team Futures Coalescing--Rays, Red Sox, Angels for sure in the AL; Cubs, Brewers, Dbacks in the NL

BOSTON - Two races are shaping up as serious and will go down to the wire: AL Central and NL East. In both cases, the loser goes home with no real chance for the Wild Card.

The White Sox, who my wife and I just saw get pummeled by the Red Sox at Fenway Park, 8-0 last night (to The Wife's chagrin), should end the season with a one-game lead over the Twins. The Twins are slightly over-performing, while the White Sox are basically winning at their capability, so that bodes well for the Pale Hose.

Similarly in the NL East, the Mets have opened up a big enough lead that should get them into the playoffs by two games over Philadelphia, but, similar to last year, the Phillies are significantly under-performing (OPI of -5), whereas the Mets are basically winning at their capability. That does mean that the Phillies can reel off another one of those streaks (sorry, Mets' fans)...

There are going to be some good races in the last month of the season

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.617	.579	99	63	6
Boston	.582	.602	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.537	.530	87	75	1
Toronto	.507	.559	84	78	-8
Baltimore	.470	.491	77	85	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.567	.578	92	70	-2
Minnesota	.563	.558	91	71	1
Cleveland	.489	.525	80	82	-6
Kansas City	.418	.391	67	95	4
Detroit	.485	.504	79	83	-3
WEST
LA Angels	.612	.550	97	65	10
Texas	.485	.459	78	84	4
Oakland	.459	.471	75	87	-2
Seattle	.381	.406	62	100	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.556	.559	90	72	-1
Philadelphia	.541	.571	88	74	-5
Atlanta	.437	.479	72	90	-7
Florida	.504	.477	81	81	4
Washington	.370	.371	60	102	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.630	.648	102	60	-3
Milwaukee	.582	.561	94	68	3
St. Louis	.548	.543	89	73	1
Houston	.511	.468	82	80	7
Pittsburgh	.425	.410	68	94	2
Cincinnati	.437	.417	70	92	3
WEST
Arizona	.515	.533	84	78	-3
LA Dodgers	.481	.493	78	84	-2
Colorado	.471	.462	76	86	1
San Francisco	.440	.407	70	92	5
San Diego	.381	.401	62	100	-3

29: Tomorrow, Special Red Sox/White Sox Post from Fenway Park in Boston

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.614	.571	98	64	7
Boston	.579	.596	94	68	-3
NY Yankees	.534	.529	86	76	1
Toronto	.511	.560	84	78	-8
Baltimore	.474	.499	77	85	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.571	.585	93	69	-2
Minnesota	.560	.551	90	72	1
Cleveland	.492	.526	81	81	-5
Kansas City	.421	.392	67	95	5
Detroit	.481	.501	79	83	-3
WEST
LA Angels	.609	.548	97	65	10
Texas	.489	.460	78	84	5
Oakland	.463	.480	75	87	-3
Seattle	.376	.405	62	100	-5
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.552	.558	90	72	-1
Philadelphia	.545	.572	89	73	-4
Atlanta	.440	.482	73	89	-7
Florida	.507	.477	81	81	5
Washington	.366	.366	59	103	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.627	.648	102	60	-3
Milwaukee	.579	.560	93	69	3
St. Louis	.552	.544	89	73	1
Houston	.507	.467	81	81	7
Pittsburgh	.429	.411	69	93	3
Cincinnati	.433	.413	70	92	3
WEST
Arizona	.511	.529	83	79	-3
LA Dodgers	.485	.498	79	83	-2
Colorado	.467	.458	75	87	1
San Francisco	.444	.409	71	91	6
San Diego	.383	.404	63	99	-3

30: Both Sox Preview the Playoffs This Weekend, BoSox Also Making a Run at the Rays

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.611	.570	98	64	7
Boston	.583	.597	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.530	.528	86	76	0
Toronto	.515	.561	85	77	-7
Baltimore	.474	.499	77	85	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.571	.585	93	69	-2
Minnesota	.564	.552	91	71	2
Cleveland	.492	.526	81	81	-5
Kansas City	.421	.392	67	95	5
Detroit	.481	.501	79	83	-3
WEST
LA Angels	.606	.547	96	66	10
Texas	.493	.461	79	83	5
Oakland	.459	.479	75	87	-3
Seattle	.376	.405	62	100	-5
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.552	.558	90	72	-1
Philadelphia	.549	.575	90	72	-4
Atlanta	.436	.480	72	90	-7
Florida	.511	.479	82	80	5
Washington	.361	.357	58	104	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.624	.647	102	60	-4
Milwaukee	.579	.560	93	69	3
St. Louis	.552	.544	89	73	1
Houston	.504	.466	81	81	6
Pittsburgh	.429	.411	69	93	3
Cincinnati	.436	.413	70	92	4
WEST
Arizona	.511	.529	83	79	-3
LA Dodgers	.489	.506	80	82	-3
Colorado	.467	.458	75	87	1
San Francisco	.444	.409	71	91	6
San Diego	.383	.404	63	99	-3