What Does the Loss of Carlos Quentin Mean to the White Sox' Playoff Chances?

According to BaseballProspectus, Carlos Quentin has a WARP of 7.4. For those of you not familiar with WARP, it stands for Wins Above Replacement Player. In Quentin's case, it would mean that he will help his team win 7.4 more games than your average left fielder, or in the case of the Sox, more than, say, Griffey. With only 22 games left in the season for the Pale Hose, that means that his injury will cost the team approximately one game in the standings.

As you see below in today's predictive standings, the Sox have a two game lead on the Twins, so dropping that prediction by one basically means that it shouldn't hurt them too badly, but it definitely means they don't have any wiggle room and need to continue to play at their pythagorean expectation, or the Twins will be able to tie or pass them in the standings by the end of the season. Good luck.

21: More Races Than We Would Have Thought As We Enter the Last Three Weeks of Play

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.612	.573	98	64	6
Boston	.593	.617	97	65	-4
NY Yankees	.532	.531	86	76	0
Toronto	.529	.572	87	75	-7
Baltimore	.450	.469	73	89	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.564	.571	92	70	-1
Minnesota	.553	.557	90	72	-1
Cleveland	.489	.533	80	82	-7
Kansas City	.429	.403	69	93	4
Detroit	.475	.487	77	85	-2
WEST
LA Angels	.607	.544	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.454	78	84	5
Oakland	.454	.469	74	88	-2
Seattle	.393	.416	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.560	.564	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.546	.574	89	73	-5
Florida	.511	.478	82	80	5
Atlanta	.437	.481	72	90	-7
Washington	.380	.377	62	100	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.603	.627	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.574	.561	93	69	2
St. Louis	.532	.537	86	76	-1
Houston	.525	.479	84	78	7
Cincinnati	.447	.432	72	90	2
Pittsburgh	.429	.408	69	93	3
WEST
Arizona	.507	.515	82	80	-1
LA Dodgers	.504	.516	82	80	-2
Colorado	.472	.459	76	86	2
San Francisco	.429	.402	69	93	4
San Diego	.383	.405	62	100	-3

22: White Sox and Mets Solidify the Quicksand of First Place They're Currently In...

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.616	.575	99	63	7
Boston	.590	.612	96	66	-4
NY Yankees	.536	.532	87	75	1
Toronto	.525	.571	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.453	.475	74	88	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.561	.566	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.550	.552	89	73	0
Cleveland	.486	.529	80	82	-7
Detroit	.479	.492	78	84	-2
Kansas City	.432	.406	69	93	4
WEST
LA Angels	.612	.551	98	64	10
Texas	.489	.458	79	83	5
Oakland	.450	.460	73	89	-2
Seattle	.388	.414	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.564	.567	91	71	0
Philadelphia	.543	.572	89	73	-5
Florida	.507	.476	81	81	5
Atlanta	.433	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.383	.380	62	100	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.607	.634	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.571	.560	92	70	2
St. Louis	.536	.539	87	75	-1
Houston	.529	.480	85	77	8
Pittsburgh	.424	.403	68	94	3
Cincinnati	.443	.426	71	91	3
WEST
Arizona	.511	.521	83	79	-2
LA Dodgers	.500	.510	81	81	-2
Colorado	.468	.457	76	86	2
San Francisco	.432	.407	69	93	4
San Diego	.386	.405	63	99	-3

23: Boston Red Sox Closing the Gap on Tampa Bay, Mets Still Hanging On, Arizona is Picture of Mediocrity

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.613	.574	98	64	6
Boston	.590	.612	96	66	-4
NY Yankees	.540	.534	87	75	1
Toronto	.522	.564	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.453	.475	74	88	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.561	.566	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.554	.559	90	72	-1
Cleveland	.486	.529	80	82	-7
Detroit	.482	.496	78	84	-2
Kansas City	.423	.402	68	94	4
WEST
LA Angels	.609	.547	97	65	10
Texas	.489	.458	79	83	5
Oakland	.457	.463	74	88	-1
Seattle	.388	.414	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.564	.567	91	71	0
Philadelphia	.543	.572	89	73	-5
Florida	.507	.476	81	81	5
Atlanta	.429	.476	70	92	-8
Washington	.386	.381	62	100	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.607	.634	99	63	-4
Milwaukee	.576	.563	93	69	2
St. Louis	.536	.539	87	75	-1
Houston	.529	.480	85	77	8
Pittsburgh	.428	.403	69	93	4
Cincinnati	.439	.423	71	91	3
WEST
Arizona	.511	.521	83	79	-2
LA Dodgers	.500	.510	81	81	-2
Colorado	.468	.457	76	86	2
San Francisco	.432	.407	69	93	4
San Diego	.381	.402	62	100	-3

24: Some Races Tightening Up?

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.618	.578	99	63	6
Boston	.587	.612	96	66	-4
NY Yankees	.536	.531	87	75	1
Toronto	.518	.563	85	77	-7
Baltimore	.457	.476	74	88	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.558	.565	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.558	.560	90	72	0
Cleveland	.489	.531	80	82	-7
Detroit	.478	.494	78	84	-3
Kansas City	.423	.402	68	94	4
WEST
LA Angels	.613	.550	98	64	10
Texas	.486	.458	78	84	5
Oakland	.457	.463	74	88	-1
Seattle	.391	.415	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.561	.562	91	71	0
Philadelphia	.547	.574	89	73	-4
Florida	.504	.474	81	81	5
Atlanta	.432	.477	71	91	-7
Washington	.381	.378	62	100	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.612	.637	100	62	-4
Milwaukee	.580	.569	94	68	2
St. Louis	.540	.540	87	75	0
Houston	.525	.477	84	78	8
Pittsburgh	.423	.402	68	94	3
Cincinnati	.442	.424	71	91	3
WEST
Arizona	.507	.520	82	80	-2
LA Dodgers	.496	.509	81	81	-2
Colorado	.471	.462	76	86	2
San Francisco	.428	.400	69	93	4
San Diego	.384	.403	63	99	-3

25: Predictions Set, But 4 Teams Still Undecided.

Yes, this is it, my two-dozen or so loyal readers (thanks for filling me in, Google Analytics!): these are the predictions for the end of the baseball season leading into the playoffs. In the AL, it will be Tampa Bay playing either the White Sox or the Twins, who might go down to a final playoff game to see who will get to lose to the remarkable Rays, and the Red Sox, who could upset, slightly, the LA Angels (OPI of 10!). In the NL, The Cubs will host the Arizona (again?!) and the Brewers will be the guests of the Mets or Phillies (who might also go down to a final playoff game to get killed by the Brew Crew).

The Phillies continue to underperform as the Jerry Manuel 9 play almost exactly at their level. It's so hard to say which of these will survive to the end of the season. Will Manuel have an effect that Willie Randolph did not and get his team through? Will the Phillies start to play up to their potential like they did at the very end of last season to sneak past the forlorn Mets?

This is going to be quite a photo-finish, and I look forward to it! If I was a betting man, I'd have to say the NL East representative will be the Mets, and the NL Central champ will be the White Sox, in splitting my stats with gut and OPI (otherwise, it would be Phillies, White Sox).

Bring it on!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.622	.583	100	62	6
Boston	.584	.605	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.533	.528	86	76	1
Toronto	.515	.562	85	77	-8
Baltimore	.460	.484	75	87	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.562	.570	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.562	.562	91	71	0
Cleveland	.485	.526	80	82	-7
Kansas City	.419	.399	67	95	3
Detroit	.482	.495	78	84	-2
WEST
LA Angels	.610	.549	97	65	10
Texas	.482	.456	77	85	4
Oakland	.460	.465	75	87	-1
Seattle	.394	.416	64	98	-3
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.558	.562	90	72	-1
Philadelphia	.543	.571	89	73	-5
Atlanta	.428	.475	70	92	-8
Florida	.507	.475	81	81	5
Washington	.384	.381	62	100	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.616	.640	100	62	-4
Milwaukee	.584	.570	94	68	2
St. Louis	.536	.536	87	75	0
Houston	.522	.475	83	79	8
Pittsburgh	.419	.401	67	95	3
Cincinnati	.445	.424	72	90	3
WEST
Arizona	.511	.525	83	79	-2
LA Dodgers	.493	.505	80	82	-2
Colorado	.468	.461	76	86	1
San Francisco	.431	.400	69	93	5
San Diego	.387	.405	63	99	-3

26: Rays Roll On, Sox and Mets Hold On, Dodgers Fading

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.622	.583	100	62	6
Boston	.581	.603	95	67	-4
NY Yankees	.529	.525	86	76	1
Toronto	.515	.562	85	77	-8
Baltimore	.463	.486	76	86	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.566	.574	92	70	-1
Minnesota	.562	.562	91	71	0
Detroit	.485	.498	79	83	-2
Kansas City	.419	.399	67	95	3
Cleveland	.481	.523	79	83	-7
WEST
LA Angels	.610	.549	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.459	78	84	4
Oakland	.460	.465	75	87	-1
Seattle	.390	.410	64	98	-3
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Philadelphia	.547	.574	89	73	-4
Atlanta	.431	.476	71	91	-7
Florida	.504	.474	81	81	5
Washington	.380	.378	61	101	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.620	.643	101	61	-4
Milwaukee	.588	.572	95	67	3
St. Louis	.540	.538	87	75	0
Houston	.518	.473	83	79	7
Pittsburgh	.419	.401	67	95	3
Cincinnati	.445	.424	72	90	3
WEST
Arizona	.507	.524	83	79	-3
LA Dodgers	.489	.503	80	82	-2
Colorado	.464	.458	75	87	1
San Francisco	.434	.403	69	93	5
San Diego	.390	.407	64	98	-3