Winning the First Game on the Road Gives Huge Boost to Win Probability for Phillies

WS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	30%	0%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	70%	16%

Taking away the home-field advantage from the Rays puts the Phillies in position to do what they could not in 1993: win the World Series. Although they do have 70% chance of winning now, the Rays still have a 60% chance of winning Game 2, which could swing things back to at least toss-up status.

Phillies Are No Slouches--Rays Have a Tough Series Even With Home Advantage

Back when the Cubs were the team to beat, I always thought the Phillies would present the toughest challenge. I should have known better that, once October rolls around, even a team made up of Florida Seniors could beat them. One thing I also knew, is that both Boston or Tampa Bay were better than any NL team. So if we look at the numbers alone, sans context, the World Series will be a toss-up, with the slight advantage going to the Phillies, based on their Road record particularly. 

The big caveat in this, though, is that the Phils play in the National League which is not as strong a league as the AL, and particularly not as strong as the survivor of the AL East, which is a beast (and I will stop the rhyme there).

Whoever wins the first game will certainly get the edge, because then, in either case, that winner will hold a 70% chance of taking the Series.

WS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	5%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	51%	7%

Home for Three

Rays are back in it, as are the Dodgers. The Dodgers have the second best winning percentage at home, Red Sox have the best. I bet LA will win at least one more home game. The Red Sox could very well sweep at home (hence the great chance of winning still, even though the series is 1-1).

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	41%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	59%	0%
NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	72%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	28%	0%

According to Hoyle...

Odds for the Phillies making it to the Series have gone up sharply with their two victories, and winning the first game has made a world (series) of difference for the Red Sox, who now are most likely to win the series. The Dodgers home winning percentage probably means that they should be able to win at least one at home, but the Phillies are no slouches on the road.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	30%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	70%	16%
NLDS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	82%	18%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	18%	0%

Who Will Be Here Today, Gone Tomorrow?

Rays/Red Sox is a toss-up--couldn't be a closer matchup. I thought at the beginning of the year that the Red Sox were the best team in the majors and there's no reason to change my mind now. My initial (though un-posted) prediction of the World Series was BoSox over the Cubs. Insert lamentation here. Or just insert Phillies.

This is looking kind of like last year, where I had the Cubs beating Arizona, and Phillies beating the Rockies. Then I had Arizona beating the Rockies--I wasn't right until I finally had the Red Sox over the Rockies. But the numbers don't lie: the Phils are better than the commuter-train-dodgers (sorry, that's bad). If the Dodgers can demoralize the Phillies by taking two in the City of Brothelly Love, they can pull off an upset again.

ALCS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Rays	0.628	0.515	49%	19%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	51%	13%
NLCS
Phillies	0.598	0.561	66%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.407	34%	10%

Die Another Day

The Angels and White Sox live to fight another day and keep slim hopes alive: both of them have the exact same odds to overcome, a 1 in 5 chance of winning their ALDS series. And in case you so enjoyed my anatomy of a stat, here's another one. What are the chances of the White Sox facing the Angels in the ALCS?

1/5 x 1/5 (each is the chance that they will make it to the next round) = 1/25 or 1 in 25 chances would this happen. I've seen worse odds...

Congratulations to the LA Party Poopers, I mean Dodgers, and the Phillies.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	20%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	80%	0%
Rays	0.628	0.515	80%	0%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	20%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	0%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	100%	100%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	100%	0%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	0%	0%

Early Bleakness of Winter Descending on Chicago and Milwaukee...

...Yes, and dramatically so. Of all the teams down 2-0, the Cubs have the slightly better chance of being able to pull through than the others, with their Southside rivals being next in line (especially because of the two home games, potentially, that they could play). In today's games, specifically, the Cubs have a 45% chance of winning and the Brewers have a 42% chance of winning. If they pull it off, they could change some odds for the better. But yes, it looks bleak now.

As for the weather forecast in Southern California, particularly Anaheim way, there's a 92% chance of anomie and despair, though there is also a 99% chance of clear skies.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	8%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	92%	60%
Rays	0.628	0.515	87%	37%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	13%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	14%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	86%	55%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	86%	42%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	14%	0%

Anatomy of a Baseball Stat: Explaining Win Probability

Since many of you might not read Bill James' Baseball Manifestos, I thought I would show you how arrive at the numbers that I've been showing as the probability of victory for any given playoff team. We will draw upon two formulas from Bill James, one from his 1981 Baseball Abstract and the other from his 1984 Baseball Abstract.

First, let's look at his Pythagorean Win Expectancy "theorem". I use quotes because even though he called it that, he never thought that it quite stood the test of an actual mathematical theorem. Baseball, at it's most basic, yet most accurate, is a game whose outcome is determined by how many runs the teams score. This has two four points: runs scored by both teams and runs given up by both teams. The obvious: the team with more runs after 9 innings wins. So, he combined the idea of the pythagorean theorem that you all probably still remember (and aren't you glad that's so--I'm sure you've used it to determine the long side of a right triangle given the two short sides recently!): a² + b² = c²

Now this has led to countless important discoveries, not the least of which couldn't have happened without it, Algebra and Trigonometry. So James' basic idea was that there was some correlation between runs scored, and runs given up, and somehow coming up with wins. I don't recall the details now (I first came across this in the late '80s). But the formula that he came up with (which I've detailed elsewhere before) is:

P WP = R² / R² + RA²

P WP = Predicted Winning Percentage

R = Runs Scored (batting)

RA = Runs Given Up (pitching)

So as an example, let's compute this for the Cubs this season. Cubs scored 854 and gave up 668 runs.

P WP = 854² / 854² + 668² = .620

This is the number that was used to compute the predictive standings. But for the Playoffs, I get more granular, since the games encompass playing 3 at home and 2 on the road. For that, I consult ESPN, but this time, get their extended team stats and sort by home and away runs/runs-against.

So the Cubs then end up at:

Home: P WP = 854² / 454² + 339² = .649

Away: P WP = 854² / 401² + 332² = .563

So this is where we want to see what their chances of winning a home game and winning an away game are against their opponent, the LA Dodgers. This is when we bring in James' second discovery which he called Log5 probability (I won't go into the details of the name, that's totally straining your staying power!). Log5 allows you to take the winning percentage of any team, multiply it by their opponent, and come up with a probability of victory (or defeat, as the case might be). Now, because actual winning percentage can sometimes be a function of luck or other external factors, I use the pythagorean or predicted winning percentage.

To do this, I also need the same information for the opposing team, in this case the Dodgers. I'll use the same method and come up with their home and away winning percentages, which are .637 and .454, respectively. So the formula will then look like this:

One Game Win Probability (Cubs home advantage)

 = CHPWP - (CHPWP x LAAPWP) / CHPWP + LAAPWP - (2 x LAAPWP x CHPWP) where

CHPWP = Cubs Home Predicted Winning Percentage

LAAPWP = Dodgers Away Predicted Winning Percentage

With the numbers just given, the formula and result look like this:

Cubs Win Probability = .649 x .454 / .649 + .454 - (2 x .454 x .649) = .690 or 69%

LA Dodgers Win Probability = 1 - Cubs Win Probability = .310 or 31%

The next step is the one I outlined briefly early this week and referenced in the Diamond Mind article of Monday's post, where you assemble all the potential probabilities of the different scenarios in a 5-game series: sweep 3, lose first and win next 3, lose first 2 win next 3, etc. Each one of these is associated with a probability. So, as an example, how do we calculate the probability of a 3-game sweep for these two teams? We simply use the multiplicative property of probabilities. The Cubs have a probability of winning each of the first two home games of .690. The already calculated chance following the above Log5 method for the Away games are .454. The formula and result:

Probability of 3-game sweep for Cubs = .690 x .690 x .454 = 22%

For the Dodgers, the chance of a sweep is only 5%. But since the Cubs lost the two games at home, the chance of a sweep for the Dodgers went up:

Probability of Dodgers Sweep with two victories = 1.00 x 1.00 x .546 = 55% 

(1.00 represents a victory or probability of 100% of winning that game which we know they won)

Hopefully, this has been properly explained. Now to go back to the Red Sox vs. Angels game!

Mirage in Chicago

I'm sorry for any Red Sox, or Cleveland, Phillies, or San Francisco fan out there, but there is no worse fan that one can be than of the Cursed Cubs. They lose when they're predicted to lose, and they lose when they're predicted to win. In short, all they really do is lose. It's not a curse--that is ridiculous. But the negativity surrounding this team is palpable: fans don't cheer when they're behind, the players take on all the expectations of finally being "the one" that they inevitably press and try too hard, and inevitably as well, lose. Game after game. Home field advantage or not, they lose. As the game goes on, rather than trying to calm down and get good at-bats, they swing at pitches in the dirt like single-A minor leaguers. Pitchers overpitch and end up walking everyone they face. If you're a Cubs fan, that is the most pathetic thing to be. In the Cubs' sabermetric world, the usual saying is the same, except let me put it in mathematical notation: Wait 'til Next Year = Cubs + October + (Win Expectancy > 0) = ∞ / 0

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	24%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	76%	30%
Rays	0.628	0.515	74%	25%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	26%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	14%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	86%	17%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	86%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	14%	0%

Rays and Red Sox Increase Their Odds, Things Look Bad For Angels and White Sox

The Angels and the White Sox have basically a 1 in 4 chance of making it to the ALCS. Looks like I might not be able to spin out my long-awaited probability of the Cubs meeting the White Sox in the World Series.

The Phillies are playing right now and beating Sabathia badly. The question on the Hot Stove circuit will certainly be "Is it too many starts on 3-days rest down the stretch or is he just not a 'clutch' or capable playoff pitcher?" Last year in the playoffs, his ERA was 9.00...

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	24%	0%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	76%	30%
Rays	0.628	0.515	74%	25%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	26%	0%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	42%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	58%	17%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	69%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	31%	0%

2 Games in the Can, Two Teams with a Better Chance to Win...

Even though the Cubs lost their first game, they still have a 42% chance to win the series, and that's expecting more losses. If the Cubs win the next one, it becomes a slightly better than 50/50 proposition.

The Phillies have taken a commanding position over the Brewers, but we'll certainly see what happens after Sabathia pitches.

Stay tuned for Red Sox-Angels...

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	43%	10%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	57%	15%
Rays	0.628	0.515	61%	17%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	39%	6%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	42%	0%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	58%	17%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	69%	24%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	31%	0%

I Guess That Answer's Last Night's Question; Now Updated Playoff Odds

No real changes except that we now have the actual contestants and final runs/runs against. Basically, I still think the Red Sox will beat the Angels (57% chance to do so); Rays will beat the White Sox (61%--Sorry, Chicago, no subway series); Cubs will beat the Dodgers (68%); and even though the Phillies have a 53% chance to beat the Brewers, that is really a toss-up.

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Win	Sweep
Angels	0.539	0.556	43%	10%
Red Sox	0.652	0.534	57%	15%
Rays	0.628	0.515	61%	17%
White Sox	0.644	0.441	39%	6%
NLDS
Cubs	0.649	0.593	68%	22%
Dodgers	0.637	0.454	32%	5%
Phillies	0.598	0.561	53%	14%
Brewers	0.635	0.522	47%	10%

And if each of the teams predicted to lose the series wins the first game, it changes the odds to plus 60% for all of those teams, except one, the Cubs. They would no longer be favored, but the odds would be just under 50/50 for them to pull it out anyway.

White Sox Vs. Twins in One-Game Playoff Tomorrow--Who Wins?

Based on the fact that White Sox are at home tomorrow, where they sport a lofty 0.643 pythagorean winning percentage, and that the Twins will bring their less-than-stellar 0.450 pythagorean road winning percentage, the Sox have a 69% chance of facing the Rays on Thursday, using the log5 win probability.

White Sox Have Good Chance to Tie for the NL Central Title Tomorrow

The White Sox have a 67% chance of beating the Tigers tomorrow and taking this into a Tuesday one-game playoff with the Twins. Very cool.

Playoff Prediction or Fun With Pythagorean, Log5 and Probabilities: Cubs, Phillies, Red Sox Will Advance

Alright folks (all 60 of you now!), you'll hear it here first: the Red Sox will upset the Angels. The Red Sox have an almost 60% chance of taking the series, mostly on the strength of better record on the road, and an unbelievable record at home.

The Rays will almost certainly beat whoever they play, be it the depleted Twins or depleted White Sox.

The Cubs, on the strength of an excellent road record, also have a great chance to proceed to the NLCS, 67% (the most of any of the post-season aspirants). Their home record vs. the road record of the Dodgers is very big, and their excellent road record can almost nullify the great home advantage of the Dodgers. On the other hand, should the Dodgers steal one at Wrigley, that would probably have a significant effect on the outcome.

Phillies should beat the Brewers (57% chance), and that might be more true considering how much Milwaukee's staff was battered and overworked in the last week (except when CC Sabathia pitched).

ALDS	H PWP	A PWP	Odds to Win Series	Odds to Sweep
Angels	0.525	0.554	41%	9%
Red Sox	0.658	0.536	59%	16%
Rays	0.628	0.514	x%	x%
Twins/WS	0.xxx	0.xxx	x%	x%
NLDS
Cubs	0.642	0.596	67%	21%
Dodgers	0.637	0.456	33%	6%
Phillies	0.588	0.561	58%	16%
Brewers	0.558	0.522	42%	9%

H PWP = Home Pythagorean Winning Percentage

A PWP = Away Pythagorean Winning Percentage

These numbers were used to calculate the log5 win probabilities for each team and each game in the series. No I did not look at pitcher vs. team since the sample size is too small.

Today's Win Probabilities for the Mets, Brewers, White Sox and Twins

It all comes down to one day, one game, to determine two divisional races.

The Mets have a 54% chance of winning their game; the Brewers only a 42% of winning theirs (based on log5, as explained yesterday). For the Brewers to win the Wild Card today, we multiply their odds of winning to the odds of the Mets losing, then vice versa for the Mets to win it:

Brewers, 42% x (1-54%) = 20%

Mets, 54% x (1-42%) = 31%

Tie Today, either by both winning or both losing, (42% x 54%) + ((1 - 42%) x (1 - 54%)) = 49%

As of now, the Mets and Marlins are tied 0-0 in the 3rd, while the Cubs have taken 1-0 lead in the first.

As for the Twins and White Sox, their situation is a little different. Two things have to happen for the White Sox to win the division--they have to win and the Twins lose, then play a one-game playoff. Whereas the Twins just need to hold serve:

Twins, 74% chance to win division (based on log5 win probability to beat the Royals)

White Sox, 70% x (1 - 74%) = 18% (Sox win AND Twins lose) just to tie for the NL Central

As of now, Sox lead 3-1 over Cleveland in the 3rd, and Twins/Royals 0-0.

Who do the odds favor to reach the post-season, then? Well, Twins and Mets have the better chances to outlast their opponents, though it will be much harder for the Mets.

And just a side note to Mets' fans--this team has lost Billy Wagner, John Maine and Ryan Church for extended portions of the season, long enough to have probably cost them the division. That they are even in this situation is a testament to the team (players and manager) in overcoming these obstacles. With those three playing the full season, they are about equal to the Cubs in performance.

UPDATE and OOOPS!: With the White Sox win today, they force their remaining game to be played--I hadn't taken that into account. So the Twins are done, and now have to wait until tomorrow to see if the tie happens or they win.

1: I Think It'll Be A Playoff Game For the Mets/Brewers; Twins Will Upset the White Sox

I had predicted a Subway Series back in June. Did the Carlos Quentin injury do in the Sox? How about the Contreras injury? In either case, it doesn't look good for the Sox, who have to win their last game and hope that the Royals sweep the Twins.

It's definitely looking like the Brewers and Mets will end up in a one-game playoff. Santana was rock-solid today, but it's the unpredictable Oliver Perez going tomorrow for the Mets, and the very predictable and wins except against the Cubs, CC Sabathia.

I love this game!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
x-Tampa Bay	.596	.571	97	65	4
y-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.572	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.425	.453	69	93	-4
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.540	.550	88	74	-2
Chicago Sox	.538	.547	87	75	-1
Cleveland	.503	.531	82	80	-4
Detroit	.463	.482	75	87	-3
Kansas City	.466	.443	75	87	4
WEST
*-LA Angels	.615	.542	100	62	12
Texas	.491	.468	79	83	4
Oakland	.469	.468	76	86	0
Seattle	.373	.405	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
x-Philadelphia	.565	.577	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.553	.557	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.501	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.485	72	90	-6
Washington	.369	.379	60	102	-2
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.606	.620	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.541	90	72	2
Houston	.531	.477	86	76	9
St. Louis	.528	.532	86	76	-1
Cincinnati	.460	.440	74	88	3
Pittsburgh	.410	.405	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.540	85	77	-3
Arizona	.503	.509	82	80	-1
Colorado	.460	.453	74	88	1
San Francisco	.441	.414	71	91	4
San Diego	.391	.413	63	99	-4

Mets Win, Chances to Tie/Win Go Up

The chances of a one-game playoff between the Mets and the Brewers just went up to 82% with the Mets' victory. Brewer's chance to win outright drops to 56%.

Fun With Probabilities: Brewers/Twins have best shot at postseason

I'm sure every one of my 34 regular readers (according to Google Analytics!) went immediately to their trusty Texas Instruments TI-35 calculators and used my probabilities from yesterdays' posts to calculate overall odds of making the post season for their favorite teams.

You mean you didn't?

OK, then, let's take a look from the spreadsheet. The beauty of probabilities, statistically speaking is that they can be added, subtracted and multiplied to come up with odds of combinations and odds of mutual exclusivity, among the many other possibilities. Here, we'll really look at the combinatorial property.

Before I delve into this, I want to point out that the best description of what I'm doing comes from DiamondMind Baseball. I first posted my playoff version of Bill James Log5 theorem in 2005. What I will be doing in the playoffs is exactly what they describe. You can also find my original description on BigShouldersSports, where I used to occasionally contribute. In essence, I take the home team's winning percentage at home vs. the away teams road winning percentage, all using the pythagorean expectations formula as used during the season, to compute a probability of victory in each game of the series. I then use the combinatorial mathematics to come up with the odds of sweeping, winning two games, or winning just one for each team. As you will see in the playoffs, this also will take into account all five or seven games.

For now, though, we've already had one game, so the odds have changed a little. Looking at the numbers for the Brewers, they have a 49% chance of beating the Cubs twice (since they won last night). The Mets have only a 29% chance of winning two games. The Brewers also have a 33% of winning one game, Mets have a 50% of doing so, facing easier competition. If both teams win one game or both teams win two games, then they end up tied, so we add up both of those probabilities for each team and multiply to get the odds of this happening, which is 64%.

But unfortunately, for the Mets, because they lost yesterday, they do not have the ability to sweep their series and will therefore have to hope that the Brewers will lose at least one game. Otherwise, the chances of the Brewers winning the Wild Card are 59% (odds of sweeping plus odds of winning two games plus odds of winning one game while the Mets lose two plus Mets losing one plus Mets being swept). Those same odds in reverse, i.e. for the Mets to win the WC, are 41%.

If you're wondering why some of those numbers don't total one hundred, it's because these possibilities are mutually exclusive, meaning they exist on their own (this is something I'm sure my regular visitors already know, but I include it in case I get some new visitors that might not). That is not true, though, for the Mets probability (P) of winning, that is exactly 41% because it is calculated 100% (Mets OR Brewers win P) minus 59% (Brewers win P).

Calculating the same for the White Sox and Twins, we get, respectively, 43% and 57%. Best way to check a probability is to do a gut-level check: Twins are playing the Royals, who are the worst team in the league, whereas the Sox are playing the Indians, which are in third place in the division. So the Sox have a tougher schedule.

2: Dead Heat in the AL Central; Brewers Back In the Driver's Seat

Nothing I can add beyond the title--will be interesting.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.572	97	65	5
z-Boston	.588	.600	95	67	-2
NY Yankees	.550	.539	89	73	2
Toronto	.531	.573	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.421	.452	68	94	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.544	.552	88	74	-1
Chicago Sox	.541	.551	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.527	81	81	-4
Detroit	.459	.482	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.463	.441	75	87	3
WEST
*-LA Angels	.619	.545	100	62	12
Texas	.488	.466	79	83	3
Oakland	.472	.470	76	86	0
Seattle	.369	.402	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.577	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.550	.556	89	73	-1
Florida	.522	.502	85	77	3
Atlanta	.444	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.371	.379	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.604	.619	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.556	.544	90	72	2
Houston	.535	.481	86	76	9
St. Louis	.525	.530	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.463	.442	75	87	3
Pittsburgh	.413	.406	67	95	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.522	.541	85	77	-3
Arizona	.500	.508	81	81	-1
Colorado	.463	.454	75	87	1
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.388	.412	63	99	-4

Updated, and Now, AL, too

Updated probabilities, plus I've finally included the White Sox and Twins. So how does it look for our finalists, some of whom will go home with consolation prizes (a higher draft pick next summer?).

Important places to look below: the Brewers have an 18% chance to sweep the Cubs, but even if they win only two, their chances of winning two now is almost 50/50. That is in stark contrast to the Mets who have only a 50/50 chance of winning ONE game. The Phillies have practically clinched, so they're not even in the equation anymore. If the Brewers win one more game, that will probably knock the Mets off (sorry, Mets fans).

I think I have to say sorry to White Sox fans also: they have to win the next two games to guarantee a tie, whereas the Twins, winning two games, will win the division. In the immortal words of The Jam, "Here Comes The Weekend"!

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	0.0%	33.1%	48.9%
Brewers	18.1%	48.9%	33.1%
Phillies	45.4%	43.9%	10.6%
Nationals	0.0%	10.6%	43.9%
Mets	0.0%	28.6%	49.8%
Marlins	21.6%	49.8%	28.6%
White Sox	0.0%	48.2%	42.4%
Indians	9.3%	42.4%	48.2%
Twins	0.0%	55.2%	38.2%
KC	6.6%	38.2%	55.2%

Check Out My Profile On My Wife's Blogroll

Marysbutler.com profiles me and specifically Sabermetrati--Thanks!

Final Weekend: National League Version

The table below is the Log5 probability (I will explain this in a following post) of the possible results in this weekends NL games with Playoff implications. The three columns are probability of a sweep for each team, for getting two wins, and getting one win.

The Brewers and Mets need to win 2 games and the Mets have the best chance of doing that. The numbers absolutely favor the Phillies winning at least one game and very likely two, and the Mets are second most likely to win. Of course, will the Cubs bring their A-Team this weekend? Given what I saw last night in Shea Stadium, they probably won't. Of course, the B-Team sure didn't disappoint too badly.

	sweep	2-wins	1-win
Cubs	19.3%	42.3%	30.9%
Brewers	7.5%	30.9%	42.3%
Phillies	30.6%	44.4%	21.5%
Nationals	3.5%	21.5%	44.4%
Mets	15.2%	39.8%	34.8%
Marlins	10.1%	34.8%	39.8%

Ed note: My original post incorrectly showed the Cubs as the home team, and they are in fact the visiting team in Milwaukee. The numbers changed slightly.

3: Twins' Dome Sweeps the Sox Out of First, Mets/Brewers Tied--2 games for Any One of Them Will Put Them in the Playoffs

The Mets great game tonight keeps them in contention with the Brewers after their extra inning affair. Boy--the Pirates are the tonic for what ails you in the NL. And the Twins now have the upper hand over the White Sox. This is going to be a great weekend for baseball!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.604	.574	98	64	5
z-Boston	.591	.609	96	66	-3
NY Yankees	.547	.533	89	73	2
Toronto	.528	.571	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Minnesota	.547	.557	89	73	-2
Chicago Sox	.544	.554	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.497	.526	81	81	-5
Detroit	.456	.480	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.620	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.367	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.553	.559	90	72	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.608	.622	98	64	-2
Milwaukee	.553	.542	90	72	2
Houston	.532	.480	86	76	8
St. Louis	.522	.529	85	77	-1
Cincinnati	.465	.442	75	87	4
Pittsburgh	.409	.403	66	96	1
WEST
x-LA Dodgers	.525	.542	85	77	-3
Arizona	.497	.506	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.455	75	87	2
San Francisco	.440	.413	71	91	4
San Diego	.386	.412	63	99	-4

Tied 6-6 in the 9th with the rain coming down

Last cubs game at shea

4: White Sox Need to Win Two More Games; One-Game Playoff Between Mets & Brewers?

And it would help if they win one of those tomorrow against the Twins or there will be no chance for a Subway Series this year, just in time for the 102nd anniversary of the first one (Cubs vs. Sox in 1906).

And interestingly, the Phillies should still win the NL East, and it looks like a tie now between the Brewers and hapless Mets (subject of a special post from the game tomorrow at Shea Stadium). The Cubs are practically in the weird position to pick their opponent for the NLCS.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.608	.576	98	64	5
z-Boston	.589	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.551	.537	89	73	2
Toronto	.525	.567	85	77	-7
Baltimore	.424	.454	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.548	.555	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.544	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.500	.529	81	81	-5
Detroit	.452	.479	73	89	-4
Kansas City	.459	.436	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.560	.575	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.447	.481	72	90	-6
Washington	.373	.381	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.611	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.551	.539	89	73	2
Houston	.529	.479	85	77	8
St. Louis	.519	.523	84	78	-1
Cincinnati	.468	.443	76	86	4
Pittsburgh	.411	.405	67	95	1
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.500	.513	81	81	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

5: All the Phillies Met at a Brewer-y; White Sox Have Twins?

There's really only one race in the NL, but with two parts: Phillies over Mets, Mets over Brewers. I think the Brewers are going to come up short based on who they have to play over the weekend, but it should still be interesting.

In the AL, it's just one race, Sox vs. Twins. The Sox should be able to eke it out, but the Twins are not going down easy. This closeness is probably the one game of difference Carlos Quentin's injury has wrought.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.605	.573	98	64	5
z-Boston	.586	.606	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.548	.534	89	73	2
Toronto	.529	.570	86	76	-7
Baltimore	.427	.456	69	93	-5
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.551	.556	89	73	-1
Minnesota	.541	.556	88	74	-2
Cleveland	.503	.530	82	80	-4
Detroit	.455	.483	74	88	-4
Kansas City	.456	.431	74	88	4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.618	.552	100	62	11
Texas	.484	.460	78	84	4
Oakland	.475	.472	77	85	1
Seattle	.369	.400	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.563	.580	91	71	-3
NY Mets	.554	.562	90	72	-1
Florida	.516	.495	83	79	3
Atlanta	.443	.477	72	90	-6
Washington	.376	.383	61	101	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.609	.623	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.548	.538	89	73	2
Houston	.526	.475	85	77	8
St. Louis	.516	.522	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.414	.406	67	95	1
Cincinnati	.471	.446	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.522	.537	85	77	-2
Arizona	.503	.514	82	80	-2
Colorado	.459	.447	74	88	2
San Francisco	.446	.419	72	90	4
San Diego	.389	.416	63	99	-4

6: The Mets? Ouch--But They'll, uh, Make It!

The White Sox, the Dodgers, and the Mets only need to win two more games to effectively clinch the playoffs. I still have egg on my face from making that call for the Mets last year, but I'm sure they'll be able to do it given their stats.

The Red Sox and Phillies will both effectively clinch with one more win, but barring a monstrous collapse, both will be in the playoffs. Actually, in a preview of those, Boston is by far the scariest team to face, and the Angels do have something to worry about. In this table (without my log5 win probability calculated completely, yet), note that the Sox are underperforming by 4 games, while the Angels are OVERperforming by 11. That's an amazing number and one that I have not seen in a first place team at the end of the season in the 5 years I've been doing this. Is it the Angels' great relief, namely Frankie K? Great managing? I don't know, but if I was a betting man, I would put money on Boston to take them out in the first round.

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.600	.571	97	65	5
Boston	.583	.606	95	67	-4
NY Yankees	.545	.533	88	74	2
Toronto	.532	.572	86	76	-6
Baltimore	.432	.459	70	92	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.538	.552	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.506	.531	82	80	-4
Kansas City	.452	.428	73	89	4
Detroit	.458	.486	74	88	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.622	.554	100	62	11
Oakland	.481	.480	78	84	0
Texas	.478	.453	77	85	4
Seattle	.365	.397	59	103	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.567	.581	92	70	-2
NY Mets	.551	.559	89	73	-1
Florida	.519	.499	84	78	3
Atlanta	.439	.476	71	91	-6
Washington	.372	.378	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
*-Chicago Cubs	.613	.626	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.545	.537	88	74	1
Houston	.529	.476	85	77	9
St. Louis	.513	.520	83	79	-1
Pittsburgh	.417	.407	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.468	.445	76	86	4
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.530	84	78	-2
Arizona	.506	.517	82	80	-2
Colorado	.455	.443	74	88	2
San Francisco	.449	.422	73	89	4
San Diego	.391	.422	64	98	-5

7: A Week From Today, There Will Be Two Less "Old" Stadiums...

Yeah, it was a tear-jerker earlier this evening watching the last game in a storied ballpark. I still don't know why it needs to be replaced, but hey, I'm not the fire inspector. I'm looking forward to the Cubs at the Mets on Thursday, when I have tickets to see one of the last games at Shea.

I've already put together the log5 predictions for the playoffs based on current standings, and it's going to be an interesting post-season. Let's put it this way: the top two teams in each league do NOT have an easy path to the World Series. More on that later in the week.

For now, it looks like the Phillies can beat the annually free-falling Mets, but they'll both make the playoffs. Either way, one or the other will be playing the Dodgers, and it won't be as easy a victory as it seems. Same with the Cubs and the eventual Wild Card.

The Angels will not have an easy time with Boston, nor will the Rays have an easy time with the White Sox.

Did I just say the Cubs and the White Sox will be in the playoffs in the same year? Can you say Subway Series? Enjoy the last week!

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
z-Tampa Bay	.597	.570	97	65	5
Boston	.587	.607	95	67	-3
NY Yankees	.545	.533	88	74	2
Toronto	.532	.572	86	76	-6
Baltimore	.435	.460	71	91	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.555	.560	90	72	-1
Minnesota	.538	.552	87	75	-2
Cleveland	.503	.530	82	80	-4
Kansas City	.449	.425	73	89	4
Detroit	.461	.488	75	87	-4
WEST
x-LA Angels	.619	.554	100	62	11
Texas	.481	.453	78	84	5
Oakland	.477	.479	77	85	0
Seattle	.368	.397	60	102	-5
NL
EAST
Philadelphia	.564	.578	91	71	-2
NY Mets	.555	.563	90	72	-1
Florida	.523	.500	85	78	4
Atlanta	.442	.479	72	90	-6
Washington	.372	.378	60	102	-1
CENTRAL
x-Chicago Cubs	.610	.624	99	63	-2
Milwaukee	.545	.537	88	74	1
Houston	.529	.476	85	77	9
St. Louis	.516	.522	84	78	-1
Pittsburgh	.417	.407	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.465	.443	75	87	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.519	.530	84	78	-2
Arizona	.503	.515	82	80	-2
Colorado	.455	.443	74	88	2
San Francisco	.449	.422	73	89	4
San Diego	.391	.422	64	98	-5