14: Real World Magic Number, Little Action

All those rainouts so little action again tonight. A couple of teams have shortened their RWM#, though not too much.

AL	W	PW	RW Magic #
East
Tampa Bay	88	97	9
Boston	87	96	11
Central
Minnesota	82	90	9
Chicago Sox	81	90	10
West
x-LA Angels	91	99	0
Wild Card
Boston	87	96	4
Minnesota	82	90	15
NL
East
NY Mets	83	92	7
Philadelphia	81	89	12
Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16
West
LA Dodgers	77	84	4
Arizona	72	80	13
Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	81	89	11

15: Not Much Action Due to Ike

I will be posting only the new Real World Magic Number stat from here on out, unless there is a compelling change in results or other reason. For now, I will see how this RWM# works as an actual predictor of the course of events over the next few weeks. The only changes from yesterday due to the major storms around the East Coast were the Rays and Red Sox both reducing their numbers, as well as the White Sox and the Dodgers, all by 1.

PS: Kudos to ESPN for incorporating an expanded version of standings that takes into account some of the same things I do, and also utilizes a similar system as BaseballProspectus. They are using Coolstanding to get their playoff odds data. Both Coolstanding and BP use Monte Carlo simulations for their predictions, where I simply use a derivative of Pythagorean Expectation and actual performance for my predictions. As I pointed out before, these numbers are highly correlated and usually the same.

AL	W	PW	RW Magic #
East
Tampa Bay	87	97	10
Boston	86	96	12
Central
Chicago Sox	81	90	9
Minnesota	80	89	11
West
x-LA Angels	90	98	0
Wild Card
Boston	86	96	4
Minnesota	80	89	17
NL
East
NY Mets	82	92	8
Philadelphia	80	89	13
Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16
West
LA Dodgers	76	84	5
Arizona	72	80	13
Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	80	89	12

Playoff "Real World" Magic Number, next up to clinch: Cubs

AL
East	W	PW	RW Magic #
Tampa Bay	87	97	9
Boston	85	95	13
Central
Chicago Sox	81	90	9
Minnesota	80	89	11
West
x-LA Angels	88	97	0
Wild Card
Boston	85	95	5
Minnesota	80	89	16
NL
East
NY Mets	82	92	8
Philadelphia	80	89	13
Central
Chicago Cubs	88	98	4
Milwaukee	83	91	16
West
LA Dodgers	75	83	6
Arizona	71	80	13
Wild Card
Milwaukee	83	91	7
Philadelphia	80	89	12

A New Way to the Magic Number

Later this evening I will be posting a new "version" of the Magic Number. The way this has been calculated is by taking the predicted finish of the second place team, and subtracting the number of games left to achieve that number of games. So for instance, the Cubs' real Magic Number is 13, but subtracting out the expected games that Milwaukee is expected to lose according to their pythagorean record, the "real world" Magic Number, or RW Magic #, is actually less than that, closer to 6.

One thing different about the RW Magic # is that it does not figure in opponent's losses. So if the Cubs have an RW M# of 6, that means they have to win 6 games by the end of the season and that should be all it takes. Of course, this number will change as the second place team goes on a winning streak, but will stay the same if they play according to their predicted wins.

If anyone is interested in the actual formula, let me know and I will post it.

16: Status Quo--Rays, Red & White Sox, Angels in ALCS; Mets, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers in NLCS

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.604	.568	97	65	6
Boston	.586	.611	95	67	-4
Toronto	.538	.579	88	74	-7
NY Yankees	.527	.525	85	77	0
Baltimore	.444	.467	72	90	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.559	.564	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.552	.561	90	72	-1
Cleveland	.493	.532	81	81	-6
Kansas City	.424	.396	68	94	4
Detroit	.479	.491	78	84	-2
WEST
x-LA Angels	.607	.548	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.459	78	84	4
Oakland	.462	.471	75	87	-1
Seattle	.396	.416	64	98	-3
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.566	.564	92	70	0
Philadelphia	.541	.568	88	74	-4
Florida	.507	.479	82	80	4
Atlanta	.438	.481	72	90	-7
Washington	.384	.384	62	100	0
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.600	.626	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.568	.552	92	70	3
Houston	.541	.490	87	75	8
St. Louis	.538	.539	87	75	0
Pittsburgh	.414	.401	67	95	2
Cincinnati	.452	.433	73	89	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.514	.526	83	79	-2
Arizona	.490	.505	80	82	-2
Colorado	.459	.454	74	88	1
San Francisco	.448	.415	72	90	5
San Diego	.384	.409	63	99	-4

18: Boston First, Yankees in 4th in the AL East? Dodgers to Survive Into October? Only the Angels Have a Guaranteed Slot...

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Boston	.594	.614	97	65	-3
Tampa Bay	.599	.566	96	66	5
Toronto	.538	.576	88	74	-6
NY Yankees	.528	.522	85	77	1
Baltimore	.451	.474	73	89	-4
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.559	.569	91	71	-2
Minnesota	.545	.554	89	73	-1
Detroit	.486	.494	79	83	-1
Cleveland	.486	.525	79	83	-6
Kansas City	.430	.403	69	93	4
WEST
LA Angels	.608	.552	97	65	9
Texas	.486	.456	78	84	5
Oakland	.455	.468	74	88	-2
Seattle	.394	.417	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.549	.574	89	73	-4
Florida	.500	.474	81	81	4
Atlanta	.431	.477	71	91	-8
Washington	.389	.384	63	99	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.601	.627	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.569	.553	92	70	3
St. Louis	.538	.539	87	75	0
Houston	.535	.483	86	76	8
Cincinnati	.451	.432	73	89	3
Pittsburgh	.420	.406	68	94	2
WEST
LA Dodgers	.507	.519	82	80	-2
Arizona	.497	.506	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.456	75	87	1
San Francisco	.441	.412	71	91	5
San Diego	.389	.415	63	99	-4

19: The Suspense Is Building, Though Really Only for the Twins/White Sox, Mets/Phillies and D-Backs/Dodgers

AL
EAST	WP	P WP	P W	P L	OPI
Tampa Bay	.603	.569	97	65	6
Boston	.592	.613	96	66	-3
Toronto	.535	.575	87	75	-6
NY Yankees	.531	.530	86	76	0
Baltimore	.447	.467	73	89	-3
CENTRAL
Chicago Sox	.563	.570	91	71	-1
Minnesota	.545	.554	89	73	-1
Cleveland	.489	.533	80	82	-7
Detroit	.483	.490	78	84	-1
Kansas City	.430	.403	69	93	4
WEST
LA Angels	.606	.544	97	65	10
Texas	.486	.456	78	84	5
Oakland	.458	.472	74	88	-2
Seattle	.394	.417	64	98	-4
NL
EAST
NY Mets	.559	.563	91	71	-1
Philadelphia	.545	.574	89	73	-5
Florida	.503	.476	81	81	5
Atlanta	.431	.477	71	91	-8
Washington	.389	.384	63	99	1
CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs	.601	.627	98	64	-4
Milwaukee	.573	.554	93	69	3
St. Louis	.538	.539	87	75	0
Houston	.531	.482	85	77	8
Cincinnati	.448	.431	72	90	3
Pittsburgh	.423	.406	68	94	3
WEST
LA Dodgers	.510	.522	83	79	-2
Arizona	.500	.509	81	81	-2
Colorado	.465	.456	75	87	1
San Francisco	.437	.409	70	92	5
San Diego	.385	.412	63	99	-4